Valve is a unique company with no traditional hierarchy. In business school, I read a very interesting Harvard Business Review article on the subject. Unfortunately it’s locked behind a paywall, but this is Google AI’s summary of the article which I confirm to be true from what I remember:
According to a Harvard Business Review article from 2013, Valve, the gaming company that created Half Life and Portal, has a unique organizational structure that includes a flat management system called "Flatland". This structure eliminates traditional hierarchies and bosses, allowing employees to choose their own projects and have autonomy. Other features of Valve's structure include:
Self-allocated time: Employees have complete control over how they allocate their time
No managers: There is no managerial oversight
Fluid structure: Desks have wheels so employees can easily move between teams, or "cabals"
Peer-based performance reviews: Employees evaluate each other's performance and stack rank them
Hiring: Valve has a unique hiring process that supports recruiting people with a variety of skills
Kinda sounds like how worker cooperatives work tbh, but with Gabe still technically being the owner.
I remember reading a news piece a while back about how the founder of a food company made sure to transfer ownership to the employees before leaving. While we're talking about worst-case scenarios, let's also hope for the best and hope that Gabe has a similar plan.
PeopleMakeGames has a two part series on Valve that's pretty interesting. The second part (here) dives into the structure of the company. It does have a bit of an angle, fwiw, so if you'd prefer something more objective, it might not be a great watch. Personally I think the issues they bring up are valid, but figured I'd mention it.
Stack ranking is toxic and removes individuality from a given employees expectations in my opinion.
People should be qualified to give proper unbiased reviews. Just because someone is an excellent engineer does not mean they are good at understanding other people's expectations and work outputs.
I worked at a company that had no 'managers' just the owner, and everyone else. I hated that I had no real way to settle disputes and every single disagreement has to ultimately be resolved by the literal one person who was in charge.
I think there is merit to flat structures, but I don't think the extreme is always the way to go.
Do you know everybody who works there and what their ambitions are?
Also, nothing is impossible when you can deploy thepower of acquisition lol i’m less worried about them internally polluting themselves and more about externally being destroyed. We’ve seen this over and over again.
Apparently 50%+ of the company belongs to Gabe himself, presumably he would pass it on to some very trusted. That makes a hostile takeover pretty unlikely.
Realistically, it's only a matter of time until Steam becomes as enshittificated as any other services. There is profit to be made from Steam selling advertising space and customer data. They can either choose to capitalize on the profits that are in front of them, or allow another company to and take that capital from them. For a business it's not a matter of what's right and wrong anymore but consume or be consumed. If Steam isn't willing to do that someone else will be willing to play the long game and do it. Then it'll be only a matter of time until Steam gets acquired by another company and then it's game over.
This doesn't make any sense. The reason Valve hasn't been acquired is because it's privately owned and not up for sale, not because it doesn't have "enough profit". In fact it's extremely profitable, for all we know.
Sure, another company could come along and build a competitor. It's happened already multiple times, and Steam is doing just fine despite some major titles these days being exclusive to other platforms. Unless Steam drops the ball on something big time, it's unlikely that people will move to another platform en masse, especially one that is less focussed on consumer interests. No-one can just come in and "take capital away" from Steam, whatever that means, by building a competitor that sells advertising space and "monetizes user data" — they need users first.
... And then there's the fact that Steam is already "selling advertiser space" today. Games don't just get featured on their storefront because Gabe likes them. They make deals with publishers for this.
I'd drop Steam if that happened. There are other ways to get games and managers like Lutris make organizing them easy. I'm sure Valve knows this and with how long they've been successful, fucking with gamers would not make sense. Look how it's working or for some of the bigger gaming companies recently.
Proton is open source. Anyone can pull it together and integrate it. Gog have been doing DRM free games for a while, they'll be quite keen to fill this niche. Epic probably won't care. If none do, someone will want to.
What are you smoking? GOG Galaxy doesn’t even have a Linux client. In fact it has been one of the most requested features for years and nothing has happened.
Edit: it’s also the reason I stopped buying from them when I got my Steam Deck.
So you're saying if Valve enshittified, they wouldn't fork and try to capitilise on that market?
They probably do not see the point right now as Valve have it sewn up. Lemmy grew when Reddit scored own goals. When Valve do, opportunities are there and would be taken.
Valve is a private company whereas GOG belongs to CDProject - a publicly traded company. GOG might want to fill the void but they're more likely to do dumb, shortsighted decisions in contrast to Valve.
As far as I know GOG also sells drm content and Steam also sells drm-free content. So what's the point
they'll be quite keen to fill this niche
I also don't remember them doing anything for Linux apart from releasing a broken port then badmouthing people who complained that the game they bought is broken.
Gabe is helping, sure, but he isn't holding up gaming. People were gaming on Linux before Proton even existed, myself included. Also, even if Valve went away completely, Proton is open-source and there are people like GloriousEggroll who work on Proton entirely as a community member. Proton will live on, specifically because it is open-source. All the progress made on Proton won't suddenly disappear, all the games that were previously playable on Proton will still be playable on Proton.
It's a somewhat reasonable fear but it's not a realistic fear. Proton isn't going anywhere.
Even if they want to open-source it, an issue is the amount of work of organizing the repository, making sure it's properly organized and doesn't have any files they don't want to distribute, and then maintaining that with future versions.
Additionally, if Steam would start to morph into what is posted here, it would simply be integrated into Heroic and / or lutris just as Epic is right now. There would be no need to actually launch steam anymore but just use it as a background service to pipe your games into something else.
Obviously his death will trigger a worldwide AR Easter egg hunt, where the Steam user worthy enough to find the three keys first will become the new Gaben and Master Of Steam.
I think Gabe has been getting healthy lately. Last picture I saw of him he was looking like he lost a lot of weight. Maybe repost this in 10 years and then we can panic.
The ship has sailed about 4 times now, gog galaxy on Linux has constantly been at the top of requests but we made a stinky about the Witcher 2 so gog and epic will forever hold the community as not worth it. Now the community has done the leg work they have no reason to mess about with translating all those .net calls
I used to support them but when they opened the floodgates to trash games I didn't get much reason to stick around. I miss and crave curation over volume. If both stores have heaps of garbage and steam has far better Linux support with valve actively contributing to and improving the Linux ecosystem.... I'm going steam most of the time now.
Sad as in theory I would support gog more but it seems like they've discarded what made them special.
Im wondering how does the excess amount of games offered by a store affect your experience. How would you even notice that?
And - that they were a more closed store was what made them special?
Then I think of GOG I think about licencing, how I actually own a game purchased, how I have a key for it, how I'll still own that game even of GOG stops existing. Thats not true for any of the other stores (outside of physical copies if some sell them, idk).
Whenever you are afraid of the negative impact on your life of a corporation's possible failure, it means that you have become reliant on someone you can't trust.
You must act accordingly.
Yes. GOG. itch.io. Direct from some other website. That's right.
Steam is very good; but the hidden cost is that you depend on them maintaining their service. If they turn evil, you're screwed. You either have to bend to their will, or you lose your library of games.
On the other hand, GOG and itch.io are arguably not as good as Steam right now, but they don't have any kind of lock-in. So if they start to backslide, you can still walk away with your full library of games. I do think it's a good idea to 'not put all your eggs in one basket.'
For sure, valid to fear the enshittification of steam. But they aren't killing proton. Maybe ignoring proton at worst. But Steam has profit motivations for not being reliant on Windows, which has actively been trying to supplant them with the Windows Store for years.
As another separate, profit-motivated company, with a gaming division and a lot to gain from eating Steam's lunch, Microsoft is not Steam's friend. Proton is a critical bargaining tool for them, and not having to include windows licenses for devices like the Steam Deck helps their costs too.
My fear is them going public or selling. If that happens, it'll probably be Microsoft willing to spend any amount, and the government hasn't really been in a "preventing monopolies" mood for a while now.
Yeah I do have a similar fear. Valve is something special. I tried to hate them, they're filthy-rich corpos after all, but I can't. Something of value will be lost when Valve finally succumbs to enshittification, which cannot be said of a lot of other big companies.
But my fear isn't necessarily about Steam. I have like 20-30 games in my library. Steam is simply the least shit way to play games you have/want to pay for.
I love valve, I have 1000+ games in my library. I also have every crack for every game I could fine. For the rest, I have live virtual machine snapshot of the running game.
Of course anythibg live service will not work without a server simulator. To do that we need to, for each games, using wireshark, record all server and peer traffic while also saving all privaye encryptions keys used in the session.
Once games start using TPM processor, they will become uncrackable. Make sure to use a compromised TPM in that case.
What many posters in this thread fail to realize is that there is a very good reason why steam hasn’t been hit by the enshittification that otherwise permeates human existence in 2024.
Of course, Gaben as their CEO has the last say in it. And he’s just a good guy. But wait, aren’t there other companies that have good guys as their CEO and yet the enshittification persists?
The profound reason is that Valve is not a publicly traded company. They have no obligation to any investors to make number go up. They are a private company, they can do whatever the fuck they want. If they stay flat and keep paying their employees, that’s totally fine, and there is 0 pressure on them to change anything. THAT‘s why Valve seems like such a different company compared to everything else that’s out there.
Of course it’s still a choice to go public or not, and they have made the right call (for us consumers).
Based take imo. I think many posters fail realize the insane amount of money steam makes Valve. Rough estimates are that Steam sold 400 million games last year. Average cost for a game is ~$15.5. Steam has a platform fee of 30%. That means that, roughly, Steam made Valve ~1.86 billion dollars just through the sell of games. Not considering microtransactions or hardware sells. Reportedly, Valve made 1 billion dollars just off cases from CS2 crate openings. Let's just give Valve the benefit of the doubt and assume they made $5 billion dollars last year.
Impressive, but honestly not that impressive when you consider that Xbox brought in 18 billion and PlayStation brought in 30 billion last year. However, if you factor in that Xbox has a head count of ~$20,100 and Sony has one of ~12,700. While Valve has a head count of about ~400. We see that Xbox and Sony are bringing in about $900K and $2.4M per head respectively. Valve is bring in 12.5M per head. Plus Xbox and PlayStation have multiple studios and campuses. While I believe Valve only has the 1 or 2 campuses and they are their only studio.
My point being that, Valve has a ton of liquid cash for investment and growth opportunities. I'd wager Valve brought in more than 5 Billion last year, but with them being a private company, it's hard to pin down what exactly they could've made.
there is a very good reason why steam hasn’t been hit by the enshittification that otherwise permeates human existence in 2024.
Come again? Steam is enshitifed af. from forcing CS:GO players to move to CS:2 to adding DRM left and right, they do it all. They even release remasters of old games that are essentially always broken one or another.
Steam doesn't control the quality of remasters. That's up to publishers. I'm not the most active gamer and might have missed something, but didn't valve release a major revamp to the way the Library and Store were layed out in the past year or two? They also recently expanded family sharing and remote co-op. The only L I can remember in recent memory is the whole "You can't leave your games to another person when you die"
I think there are important considerations to keep in mind.
First and foremost, Valve is not a public company. I don't know if it has investors, but it is not driven by profits like many typical public companies are. These companies tend to allow themselves longer investments without any clear visibility of immediate profits. They also do things for the greater good, even though it does not bring profits.
But also, I think the whole of valve is a set of gamers and people who genuinely care about the gaming business and making great products. I think they all share Gabe's values and goals. It's not like Gabe is the only one holding everything together or else it would instantly crash into the profit driven company it could be.
Both of these scenarios keep me hopeful that this is a longer lasting stance and doesn't hinge on just one person. It's not a proof it will never be a typical profit company but these are barriers which are not typically present. Let's hope for the best and keep rewarding them for their contributions to gaming, open source and for their good actions.
I don’t understand where this myth came from that if a company is a public that they aren’t potentially ruthlessly profit driven.
Valve is not special. Gabe is to a certain degree (though I would also caution people from deifying anybody period). We can never take for granted that the valve and steam experience we largely enjoy today will be there tomorrow. That’s a simple fact.
In the US, there are multiple Supreme Court precedent cases that force profit-maximizing. Shareholders can sue the CEO and board to maximize profit seeking.
So yes, increasing shareholder value is enshrined in US law. Only private corporations can get around that rule. Also, a corporation cannot be forced to break the law to maximize profits, that's just something most CEO's are willing to do for fun.
It’s not that they can’t still be profit driven, it’s that they can’t be sued by investors for not being ruthlessly profit driven. Private just means that they have the choice at all
Publicly traded companies are, by law, driven to make as much money as possible for shareholders. Privately held companies are not held to this same limitation. So while a company like Valve could be highly profit-driven (let’s be honest, all for-profit companies in a capitalist system are driven by this motivation), it doesn’t seem to be driven to maximize profits in the short term. This means that they can focus on things other than profit if they so choose.
It would be so awesome if they went employee owned. I get the impression the employees are people who are passionate about video games. I feel that they would choose leadership that is both good for the community and good for the long-term health of the company.
More important than who works there is who inherits Gabe's ownership of the company. A new owner can completely change a company and drive out or fire anyone who doesn't go along with the new direction. Look at what happened with twitter when Musk took over. Or his inheritors could take Valve public and introduce all the issues with that.
I think this post massively overestimates the power a CEO has. The CEO is beholden to the shareholders. Valve is private, so and its shareholders are its workers. It would be useful to know how many shares Gaben has of valve, but I still don't think the next CEO would suddenly also be the majority owner.
Also, I know things have changed a lot in the last 12 years, but 12 years ago regarding the total dissolution of Valve, Gaben said:
“It’s way more likely we would head in that direction than say, ‘Let’s find some giant company that wants to cash us out and wait two or three years to have our employment agreements terminate."
Also, forcing users onto windows is THE way to kill valve's profits. The whole point of the Linux push was a direct response to the windows store, and msft's threat of forcing valve to give them a cut of purchase through steam. Msft will still do that the first chance it gets. So even the most profit-minded new leader wouldn't make that choice, as it's plainly shortsighted.
Shareholders is the owners and since they are private we don't know who they are. Right now it could be all Gaben or it could be a mix but Gaben is majority resulting in the culture is what he wants. Private companies don't have to be maximizing profits focused but will die if they don't make money. When people die it is whoever inherits or has majority share that pushes what happens.
You are most definitely right that the major shareholders aren't the workers. The major shareholders are Gabe Newell, and some bankers in Japan.
Still, it is known that Valve employees are partially compensated with stock for working in the company, so most of the employees are still shareholders. They just aren't the major ones.
How are you differentiating stakeholder and shareholder? The employees are certainly shareholders.
Valve doesn't really hire "grunts". The people who are actually considered employees of valve are very few and highly skilled. The number of Wikipedia from 2016 is very out of date and estimates 360. But valve's LinkedIn still says "over 300".
Also Valve isn't the charity they believe it is. It's a de-facto monopoly, and it has serious moderation issues (basically if you bought enough games, they will less likely ban you for hatespeech and such).
Valve isn't pulling any anticompetitive moves though. They just try to secure profits by being the best instead of destroying everyone else that dares to compete with them.
They're not a defacto monopoly? There's many different ways to buy games online and valve does not have anti-consumer practices like exclusivity deals. I have not heard anything about them not banning for hate speech? Every time I've ever reported something its been taken down within 48hrs
I actually don’t mind the advertising. Good way to know what games are popping off or are just released. I’m not great about keeping up with everything coming out every month, so it’s honestly one of my number one ways of knowing what’s being talked about/releasing besides specific reccs from friends and forums.
I also find it’s a great way to know that a game I used to play a lot dropped some beefy DLC. It’s not like we all keep tabs on every game we’ve put down thinking that we might return to it.
They're far from perfect, I'd be the first person to tell you.
But they're still light-years ahead of anyone else, because they're perfectly happy just making tons of money instead of trying to squeeze every last cent out of the storefront at our expense.
They're getting sued often because they're greedy sloths suffering the ego trip just like epic did when Fortnite was on the top of the world second only to Minecraft of course.
Aside from valve probably having a hit by bus plan, I'm pretty sure ownership of valve is actually split pretty evenly so it will likely fall to another senior dev who understands what to do.
I've heard they've hidden three immeasurably invaluable CS:Go Knife skins throughout the platform, and the first person to find all three will unlock Half-Life 3 and annoint the winner as Gaben 2, God Emperor of Valve and owner of Steam. Also, they get a chocolate factory.
Oompa loompa, doompadee doo,
We’ve got a perfect riddle for you,
Oompa loompa, doompadee dee,
If you are wise, you’ll listen to me.
Three precious knives, in Counter-Strike they hide,
Find them all to claim your prize worldwide,
The first to collect, in triumph shall stand,
To unlock Half-Life 3, the game so grand.
Oompa loompa, doompadee doo,
Follow the clues and you’ll be through,
Oompa loompa, doompadee dee,
Just one more knife, and then you’ll see.
A crown awaits, a throne so high,
Steam’s vast empire, you'll rule the sky,
With Half-Life 3, your reign begins,
All hail the gamer who truly wins.
Oompa loompa, doompadee doo,
The ultimate prize belongs to you,
Oompa loompa, doompadee dee,
Gaben 2, you shall always be.
It would be beautiful if he just handed the keys over to a true believer when it's time. Just a quality, stand up person who already has a pocket full of cash and just wants to help gamers get games and indie devs distribute them without squeezing every drop of profit they can at every step.
edit: it'd be even beautifuler if he turned it over to a trust managed by a panel of elected employee representatives
But if steam becomes enshittified I'll move onto something else and use torrent sites to download the older games I care about that I've bought on steam. It wouldn't really be pirating them, since I've bought them already.
For now steam is fine, and I appreciate the work they've done on supporting Linux, so I'll keep on using it to buy games.
EGS can't compete on features for sure (it really is quite a shit platform), but they would be very competitive if their 12% fee (vs. Steams 30% fee) could be passed to buyers as lower prices. As it stands, Valve's policies essentially strongarms the market to prohibit this (publishers selling on Steam may not have a lower price on a different platform, or the game can be de-listed from Steam). The Wolfire v. Valve case is highly relevent here.
My plea is for you not to get mad at Epic for being shit. We should be accepting of crappy platforms if their fees reflect that (Epic charges 40% what Steam does). Focus your frustration at Valve for preventing the market from fairly allowing you select the quality of the platform you'd like to pay for.
75 years of nation-wide life expectancy is also likely to include early deaths due to accidents, cancer and such. People who die of "old age" typically do later than 75.
When people talks about life expectancy 99.99% of the time they mean life expectancy at birth, at every year the life expectancy change. Using this life table someone with 61 years, have a life expectancy of 19.7 years, that means he's expected to live until he's 80.
Yep, and that was true even going all the way back through history. People weren't routinely dying in their 30s or whatever before modern medicine; it's just that a lot more of them were dying in infancy/early childhood and that brought down the average. (That's the situation anti-vaxxers are trying to go back to, BTW.)
Anyone who thinks their steam libraries will be safe forever is delusional.
Eventually a for-profit motivated individual will gain control and they will use all their MBA learnings to maximize subscriptions, per play revenue, per download revenue and overall provide a cheaper platform.
There isn't an mba on the planet that doesn't recognize that advertising is highly lucrative and being the company that sells the most pc games means you have metrics no one else has. They'll instantly monetize advertising and the popups we get when we log in today will turn into mandatory non-skippable ads on the free tier to start a game, and they'll add their wrapper on top of games in their store, especially games that do not currently need steam to play today.
It'll only get way worse. Expect everything to be pay to play.. once gaben is gone. They have a monopoly and any leader would think they are too big to fail. No one can just take their games elsewhere... we're locked in. We're committed. We can't escape. They've got us by the balls.
We can switch to piracy. I don't only because of the benefits steam offers. If that ever changes in a way that tips the scale I'll never buy a game from them again and I'd never need to. Even if they start making all new games online only in a way that can't be circumvented there's a big enough backlog of games to keep me going the rest of my life.
This so much. The thing for me is, pirated I get everything from my library back FOR FREE. So there is no loss money wise for changing things up for me. Without the convenience and fairness there is nothing holding me there. at all.
It’ll only get way worse. Expect everything to be pay to play… once gaben is gone. They have a monopoly and any leader would think they are too big to fail. No one can just take their games elsewhere… we’re locked in. We’re committed. We can’t escape. They’ve got us by the balls.
Sure you can escape, at least for any future purchases. There are other stores and you can take your business there, and the moment Steam does any serious enshittification under new management post-Gaben those other stores are going to be trying to pull customers from them hard. Likely to EGS or GOG (probably EGS unless GOG makes a big move at that point, like bringing back and expanding GOG Connect).
A couple of years down the road from there and Steam is known as that thing you only use to play older games and exclusives.
GoG does DRM free, and not just old games. Not many new AAA because convincing a big company to sell their game DRM free is hard, but Baldur's Gate 3 is on there.
But then again, people have now known the beauty of steam. If this does happen as you say it could, it does open up the possibility for someone to make a Steam_v2.
I have faith that there are enough people who are passionate about Linux that it's possible for Windows to lose some of its dominance in the future. Maybe the enshittification of steam is needed to make that a possibility.
Well thankfully Gabe has lost a ton of weight in recent years. Man is looking absolutely svelte these days. Here's hoping he has many more years of good health.
I'm also guessing he'll hand pick a successor that will carry on his views, instead of dying in office and having some kind of CEO election free-for-all.
Steam, my Steam library and Proton could disappear. But at least it will have supported a big traction in the ecosystem : Wine, DXVK, Lutris, Heroic Launcher, Bazzite, etc... are all open source projects (so they can't really disappear) that have never moved as fast as they are today.
I think anon has it 100% correct. The instant Gabe is out of the picture, I expect to hear talk about how "you don't understand, we have to fuck out users, won't someone please think of the IPO?!"
Steam is just another profit business. I don't get why people think they're about anything else. They take a huge part of the sells and don't even let you own the games. Owning means you can sell, give or do whatever you want with your games. Oh and "likely to die before 75", lol, says fucking who, the 4chan doctor?
There is regular, for-profit business, and then there is EA/Microsoft/Amazon level for-profit.
The complete disregard for their employees, massive firings for "AI powered optimization", the use and abuse of dark pattern methods(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_pattern), are some of the things that I haven't yet head of from Steam.
Sure, ultimately Steam is a capitalist business, but it could be much, much worse.
Their entire platform is built on goodwill. After he passes, someone is gonna cash that goodwill in for profit. Seems to be happening to Nintendo. Disney has been doing it for many years.
I mean, there is your regular serial killers, and then there's ___ Insert most dangerous killers here____ . Sure ultimately I've killed a few people, but it could be so much worse. See what I mean? Steam is an ok platform but in the end they only cares about profit. But since 90% of the gamers get wet when you mentioned the company name, there's no need for them to change anything right now. Why in the world is it considered normal that a business that basically only provide server space gets to take 30% of sale price, while the devs who spent thousand of hours on a project only get 70%. Maybe it made sens 15 years ago, but not in 2024.
On the one hand, yeah it's absolutely important not to idolize any company, because they have no sense of loyalty or generosity. Telling yourself otherwise is a guaranteed path to disappointment.
On the other hand, of all the shit sandwiches we've been served, Steam is one of the fresher ones. Though they developed Proton for their own benefit, it's pretty undeniable that it has made gaming on Linux way more viable than it has ever been, and it's open source. I mean no shade to FOSS solutions like Lutris, but having paid developers work on a project full-time certainly has its advantages.
I do think that the concerns about Steam's pricing rules are valid, as are gripes with its DRM for first party games. But, overall, they've brought a lot of convenience to PC gaming that is hard to find elsewhere in the gaming world.
I get that steam is a pretty nice platform to browse, and being a linux user, Proton is amazing. But steam is business, they build Proton to sell the steam deck, not for Linux users. And aren't they in trial right now for overcharging millions of dollars? We now have eveything in place to replace steam with a fair, user controlled alternative. I will gladly pay a 5% or 10% fee, on top of the game's price, to finance a user controlled infrastructure and dev team for projects such has proton.
Extreme Obesity is defined as being 100 pounds or more over your ideal weight. It is known to decrease life expectancy up to 14 years.
It's just one factor but it's a big one. Living past your 80s is really tough... and working into your 70s is really hard as it is. The reins will go from his hands likely before we die.
I think people should go easy on medical diagnostic. Do we have access to this guy's personal medical records? Are we all doctors now cause we have access to wikipedia?
It's not because none of the current platform let you do it that it's a bad point. People have traded games for decades before digital platforms, it wouldn't even be innovation lol. You can suck on Steam all you want, it's just your usual capitalist business, they dont care about you and will fuck you up the very second they evaluate they can make more money by doing so. But in the current state of things, they basically make tons of money by doing almost nothing (providing server space, wow) and "gamers" will rip their shirts off at the slightest criticism of that company.
I think they were just going off US averages. Our average lifespan has been declining past few years but it's pretty close to 75 if you're poor.
Gabe hasn't always taken care of his body, but he's rich, he'd be likely to hit around 88 in the US. The average lifespan in New Zealand is also a bit higher, so if he stays there then it may add a few years.
Unless you're a doctor, I think you shouldn't get into medical diagnostic. My grandpa smoked 2 packs a day and lived up to 95., my other grandpa was walking 10 km a day and never smoked, he died at 72.