2024 Presidential Election Megapost!
2024 Presidential Election Megapost!
Edit 12:11 PM 11/6 Pacific
Kentucky (8), Indiana (11), West Virginia (4), Florida (30), South Carolina (9), Tennessee (11), Alabama (9), Mississippi (6), Oklahoma (7), Arkansas (6), North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3), Nebraska (4*), Wyoming (3), Louisiana (8), Texas (40), Ohio (17), Missouri (10), Montana (4), Utah (6), Idaho (4), Iowa (6), Kansas (6), North Carolina (BG-16), Georgia (BG-16), Pennsylvanya (BG-19), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (15), Maine (1*), Alaska (3), Arizona (11) and Nevada (6) called for Trump.
Vermont (3), Connecticut (7), District of Columbia (3), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Rhode Island (4), Delaware (3), Illinois (19), New Jersey (14), New York (28), Colorado (10), California (54), Washington (12), Oregon (8), Virginia (13), Hawaii (4), New Mexico (5), New Hampshire (4), Minnesota (10), Nebraska (1*), Maine (3*) for Harris.
2 counties in PA have extended voting hours due to voting machine problems. 9:30 PM in one, 10:00 PM in the other.
Multiple precincts in Georgia have extended hours due to bomb threats.
Edit 03:09 PM Pacific Harris wins Guam.
This thread is for the Presidential election, my plan is to start marking wins as soon as they are called, sorted by time zone.
Some states are going to take longer than others. Polls generally close at 8 PM local time, but they can't start counting early/mail in votes until after the polls close.
Wisconsin in particular has an interesting system where ballots are collected by MUNICIPALITY, not precinct, they have over 1,800 ballot counting locations and don't report until ALL 1,800 are in.
https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2024/10/22/wisconsin-voters-election-milwaukee-security-denier
Currently 226 EC votes from Blue States:
4+19+10+7+3+3+4+10+11 +4+14+28+4+3+13+54+12 +10+5+8+6
NC called for Trump. -16 here, +16 to Trump.
GA called for Trump. -16 here, +16 to Trump.
PA called for Trump. -19 here, +19 to Trump.
AZ and NV both called for Trump, +11, +6
Which leaves 312 EC votes in Red States.
9+6+6+6+8+6+10+5+3+7 +3+40+30+11+8+17+9+11+4+3+4+4+3+16+16+19+11+6
270 to Win.
Online map here!
I am extremely troubled for the future of America. Not because of the current election results; but that this many Americans think Trump was and will be a good president. It’s infuriating the amount of single issue voters there are in the US.
It looks like people think Trump will fix the economy since that is the leading issue in exit polls. Massive trade wars are going to make the inflation of the last 2 years look mild. Americans are deeply stupid.
Yeah it's daft.
Every Trump voter interviewed says something like "yeah he's not perfect but I'm concerned about the economy".
What they actually mean is that they have no idea how the economy works but Trump makes them feel better about hating minorities.
this many Americans think Trump was and will be a good president.
I think fewer people think this than think trump and his ignoring rules and laws is their ticket to power and influence for their cause and thing that trump is a means that is justified by the end.
The funny part is that all but maybe a handful of those people are going to be the ones under the boot, rather than the one wearing it.
I think we need to stop wondering why Republicans are doing so well and with that, lamenting that just over half of the
minorityvoting population in this country will proudly vote for open fascists; stop imagining voters in the middle who are going to magically defect from the right if Democrats outflank them on the right's own invented issues; and start asking ourselves whose votes the Democrats are actually campaigning for if not ours.
RFK in charge of HHS and Leon in charge of gutting the new deal. Jesus Christ.
EPA gone.
Fight against climate change over.
SCOTUS justice Aileen Cannon.
No fault divorce gone.
National abortion ban.
Free speech destroyed.
Ukraine gone.
Gaza gone.
NATO alliance gone.
U.S. economy wasted.
U.S. military in the streets.
National concentration camps.
LOL. Wtf, Americans?
I can't believe we're a few votes away from having a stooge at the helm and an anti vaxxer as the head of the CDC and FDA.
This fucking hurts.
And don't forget that Herschel Walker will be a DoD lead.
I was trying to :(
Yeah. But we need to squarely focus the blame on Harris, the campaign, the apologists who excused some of here deeply unpopular positions, and disallowed the dissent that tried to bring her to more popular positions.
In the previous 6 elections, the candidate that ran as an anti-elite populist won.
This will make 7 (if Trump wins).
There's a lot of blame to go around.
-Americans who tolerate and accept Trump's behavior.
-Biden for not calling it sooner and letting a proper candidate emerge. Harris was the best at the last minute but there should have been actual primaries.
-Harris for not swinging for the fences and playing it safe.
I mean, Harris is in the unenviable position of having to get the support of both conservatives and leftists at the same time (because the democratic party is an awkward hodgepodge of much of what passes for the left in the US, people who mostly just want to not be discriminated against, and people who fundamentally are conservatives but feel like the republicans go too far or dislike their stance on one thing or another.) It is nigh impossible to not have some unpopular positions if you've got to try to maintain the support of groups of people that sometimes want mutually exclusive things, and can afford to lose neither, because no position in that instance is truly that popular.
I know Lemmy likes to think that if she only adopted all of their positions, she'd win in a landslide, and if Lemmy was the electorate that'd probably be the case, but to be perfectly frank, I'm far from the most far left person I encounter here routinely, and I'm already in the position of not knowing a single other person irl that agrees with me on a number of my stances. The issue for Harris isn't that she tries to get votes from conservatives, she in order to win, she has to win some amount of them, the US is too conservative a country to avoid that, it's that at the end of the day, Trump has a cult following, and a lot of people that like him. He might seem "easily beatable" because he does crap that would sink someone else, but he really isn't, having that many motivated followers is a huge asset in elections.
Isn't the blatantly obvious answer to "who is to blame for Trump getting elected?", assuming that he ultimately does, the people that voted for Trump?
In reality it's both the campaign and the voters. But it's easier to just blame voters. Lemmy/Reddit will down vote anything that goes against that narrative: but as we just saw, Internet echo chambers do not determine reality.
Pretty god damn sad that American are this fucking racist and stupid.
Trump kills a million Americans with Covid and they put him back in office. Unreal.
It is real though.
You can't expect a society dominated by oligarchs (not just on an economic and political level, but more importantly the broader social conscious) to put up any effective challenge to an oligarch candidate.
The lack of "on the ground" protest activities when that US abortion protection law was repealed is a perfect example.
Doesn't help that the US opposition is largely corrupt as well.
Hopefully he gets some more
Texas waited until the 29th of October to mail out my ballot. As of today (November 3rd), I have yet to receive it. I fully expect Texas to fuck me over.
That's crazy late to mail it OUT. Too late even to mail it back. You'll have to either find a drop box or hand deliver it to county elections HQ.
If you don't get it in time, you can always vote in person.
Everything is rigger in Texas
Well damn. This is as much a referendum on the character of America. What a searing indictment that it's even close at all.
This is as much a referendum on the character of America. What a searing indictment that it’s even close at all.
Exactly. No matter who wins.
Missouri passes a statewide abortion protection which will be overturned next year by the guy they voted for President.
Brilliant!
Put a fork in human civilization. It's done. The door is closed on climate change.
Yeah, fuck. I just feel wrecked by this.
Arm yourself. This is just the beginning.
Not really. It's not good news for climate change, but global climate policy is not solely determined by the US presidency, and there are economic and technological forces set into motion already (like much cheaper solar) that mitigate the effect somewhat compared to what a global business as usual scenario would have been without them.
That isn't to say that everything is okay, even an amount of climate change that doesn't pose much danger to the existence of future civilization still presents a personal risk to, well, everyone, due to increased natural disaster risk and such, but suggesting the door is closed on climate change is misleading; climate change is not a binary "it happens or it doesn't", it's a matter of degrees, and there are things that can influence it even without the US president on board. For threatening civilization itself, I'd say the bigger risk from Trump is the possibility that he get us into a nuclear war or something.
So this is what we are as a nation?
Yes. Yes, it is.
It's not what we want, but reality doesn't give a fuck about what we want.
We have to get ourselves ready for the shit storm that's coming.
When the going gets tough (and we all agree things are tough right now) you just need to appeal to fear and tribalism.
2 tickets with women for president 8 years apart, and we vote for the worst possible man for the job. This country is infested to its core with misogyny.
Fuck
I hate my gender so much. The world would be so much better without us.
Wait until the FBI, IRS, and DOJ is weaponized against Trump's opponents. With Presidential immunity. Jesus Christ.
I knew Americans were questionable people, but I didn't imagine they would be this shitty. Jesus.
Neither did Americans.
The rest of the world is watching, America.
Don't fuck this up.
8 PM Eastern / 5 PM Pacific
Puerto Rico - Nonbinding - Harris win.
United States Virgin Islands - Not voting.
(D 7 EC Votes) Connecticut - Called For Harris
(D 3) Delaware - Called For Harris
(D 3) District of Columbia - Called For Harris
(D 4) Maine - Called For Harris
(D 10) Maryland - Called For Harris
(D 11) Massachusetts - Called For Harris
(D 4) New Hampshire - Called For Harris
(D 14) New Jersey - Called For Harris
(D 28) New York - Called For Harris
(D 4) Rhode Island - Called For Harris
(D 3) Vermont - Called For Harris
(D 13) Virginia - Called For Harris(R 30) Florida - Called For Trump
(BG 16) Georgia - Called For Trump
(R 11) Indiana - Called for Trump
(R 8) Kentucky - Called for Trump
(BG 15) Michigan - Called For Trump
(BG 16) North Carolina - Called For Trump
(R 17) Ohio - Called For Trump
(BG 19) Pennsylvania - Called For Trump
(R 9) South Carolina - Called For Trump
(R 11) Tennessee - Called For Trump
(R 4) West Virginia - Called for Trump
Very handy, thank you!
Whoever ran the Harris campaign on Reddit deserves their salary. That was an amazing echo chamber that had me fooled. I was expecting a blue wave better than Biden 2020. Too bad it doesn't translate into the election.
Trump always overperforms. Even in 2020 he did better than he had any right to. This time there is no covid hanging over his head and Biden/Harris are taking all the blame for inflation.
It also does not hurt that millions of Americans willingly consume hours of right wing propaganda everyday. Fox News remains one of if not the top cable channel (after sports) and Joe Rogan one of the top podcasts. Meanwhile CNN has shifted right, papers like the Washington post have been compromised, and the remaining “liberal media” is so obsessed with appearing unbiased that they end up “sane washing” GOP craziness and inflating minor democrat flubs.
Biden 2020 was a nail-biter of a win and thus far I don't think any of the states he won have been called for Trump. But there being no surprises in the blue direction is not very comforting even if Harris does pull it out.
unfortunately it is not looking good
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-president-forecast-needle.html
Georgia just got called for Trump.
Double standard. Trump wins 2016 and it's 4chan and reddit won it for him. Democrats finally get a clue 8 years later an start using social media but this time it doesn't factor.
It was the same here. Moderation in this sub (to a lessor extent) and other subs (world, news, political_memes), cultivated a garden, through bans, to echo back to themselves the world as they expected to see it. Lemmy is just as knee-jerk delusional in its bans/ down votes as reddit. Dissent gets ignored and down voted. Facts are down voted. Legitimate criticisms are down-voted. All, down-voted into oblivion, because people want a comfortable lie more than an inconvenient truth.
You picked up the wrong message if you think grandstanding about Palestine was going to have any effect on this election at all. A significant portion of this country has fallen to fascism already. We got a lot bigger problems to deal with than the protest vote about Gaza. This country is now a vassal state of Russia, and US hegemony has fallen to the same unitarian kleptocracy that defines the collectivist Eastern Bloc. Figure it the fuck out. War is coming. Decide which side you're gonna be on Komrade, or it will be decided for you.
I think I need to stop following this at this point. I wish everyone the best.
Yeah. Going offline for a bit.
So much for that Iowa poll.
Knew that poll was a flaming pile of horseshit the moment it came out. Lady got lucky a few cycles in a row.
Called it. It was ONE poll flying in the face of all the others.
It's game over if Michigan falls to Trump. Good job being mealy mouthed about genocide. We can't upset AIPAC can we?
Gaza is definitely gone now. China probably moves on Taiwan. Ukraine is finished.
Always has been.
It's going to boil down to
VA, PA, MI, WI, MN. A Trump win in any of them puts him over the top. Harris has to take allfivefour. VA just got called for Harris. 1 down, 4 to go.MSNBC called PA for Trump, that's it. It's over.
But the "Anti-Genocide" vote in Michigan is not significant.
Donald Trump 47,322,739 votes (52.5%)
Kamala Harris 41,760,788 votes (46.3%)
Jill Stein 334,826 votes (0.4%)
Chase Oliver 334,504 votes (0.4%)
Robert Kennedy 291,829 votes (0.3%)
Other candidates 160,156 votes (0.2%)Harris is down 6 million. The other protest votes are 10% of that.
When the "anti-genocide" people accelerated and intensified the outcome of the existing genocide by protest voting for spoiler candidates it is really hard to muster any sympathy.
Sometimes you have to be willing to play politics in order to win at politics. Purity testing doesn't count for shit when the opposition is literally in favor of enslaving the entire human race for sport.
Way to go! You really showed the lesser of two evils who's boss, while the ultra-nationalist psycopaths erradicate millions more innocent people. Nice fucking job 👏
the county trends in swing states compared to 2020 are extremely discouraging.
I think that Harris will take Michigan (Go Blue! literally), but I'm really afraid that it won't matter.
It's at 33% counted right now
Bruh there are already people in this thread trying to blame the people trying to say that her stance on genocide was losing this election.
What a fucking disaster.
jordanlund is a Lemminal treasure. This thread needs to be pinned to the top of Lemmy (if that was a thing).
SCOTUS is gone for 40 years.
Death clock started for the New Deal.
Just listened to Selzer break down her methodology in clear, simple terms. I'm starting to think the polling error this cycle is pretty big, and Harris is going to win handily.
God I hope so... The #1 problem with polling has been trying to determine who is or is not a "likely voter".
We're seeing that in PA. 22 recent polls, 18 "Likely Voter" polls, meanwhile 100,000 new voters casting ballots early. New voters aren't counted as "likely".
I've been thinking about this too.
I've heard a lot of commentary about how polling has addressed the shortcomings of recent election cycles and that its more or less all fixed now. I do wonder though, there seems to be a heap of things that are very difficult to account for.
For example, who's actually going to vote vs just intending to vote. For example the garbage thing has motivated a lot of people to get it done.
Another is the late break. I think for a lot of people that just don't pay attention to politics, if you ask them 2 weeks ago they just haven't really thought about it - their answers are precooked from last cycle. As the big day comes around and people think about candidates, lots of traditional republicans voters will make a different choice.
Also just generally with polls is the type of person that actually completes polls. Most people ain't got time for that.
Of course I understand pollsters try to control for these things but as these problems stack up its easy to see how there can be some surprises.
👍
I did my part. You all need to get out and vote if you havent already.
I'm a little pissed off that our Election Officials were allowing Trump voters to wear hats and shirts while they were voting. But I guess they didn't want to chance the risk of these violent fuckers fucking up the voting.
That's electioneering and not allowed.
they've already been assaulting poll workers who asked them to remove their political stuff for voting.
Remember, for some reason, society bends over backwards to make sure conservatives don't get held to the same standard as everyone else.
Trump being the best example. Democrat who did one of the things he did would have long since been in jail.
Remember; most mail ins are democrat. If it looks bad that's because we are not close to done.
I am on edge and dooming. If Trump wins it's all over. I'll likely literally die.
Get your favourite show on netflix and watch that. No point in giving yourself mini heart attacks every time a county with 15 farmer’s ballots get counted.
My despair is through the roof right now. What a mess.
I quite literally think I might have half a diazepam to get me through the next 6 hours or so.
We still got mid terms and we still got 2028. And if it comes to it we still got violence
It's truly terrible.
Last election it 100% looked like Trump was going to win until the mail in dam broke.
Are most mail in ballots democrat this year? I thought republicans were pushing that more with their base. But I don't know if they actually did it or if they voted more in person.
They have been anti mail in for a long time and still are.
How long before those are counted?
It depends on the state. In some states, they're counted first, but some states do the opposite and some (NV) don't release any data until everyone is out of the poll lines. The final numbers will also vary since many states just require a post mark on or before election day - these "late" votes are counted last.
No idea
“It looks like we have a very substantial lead,” said Trump after 6 votes were counted indicating a 3-3 tie.
https://apnews.com/live/trump-harris-election-updates-11-5-2024
after 6 votes were counted indicating a 3-3 tie.
A 3-3 tie where there were zero registered democrats (2 undeclared and 4 registered Republicans), meaning at best both undeclared and at least one registered Republican voted for Harris. At worst it means at least 3 registered Republicans voted for Harris.
They all voted for Haley in the primaries and voted Joe Biden in 2020. So they are “new england republicans” not “trump republicans” ahah.
NYT got me dooming. I think it’s time to pop a xanax and pretend everything is going to be okay while falling asleep.
Welp.
I have to say that the wording here feels oddly suspect. I have never gotten a sticker that said anything other than "I voted!" and it really concerns me about the subtle messaging here. I tried to make a separate post about it, but image posts aren't allowed apparently.
God Republicans are such douchebags...
I guess we should be happy that they didn't make it, "I made America great again!"
No real answers, but it's interesting
Wow.
With NC Called for Trump tonight, its time for us all to take a rest and sleep. NC was the early decision point. We all expected it to go Trump, but if it went Kamala then Trump basically lost.
Now that Trump is confirmed to win NC, its a long road until PA is called. And Kamala needs to win PA, MI, and WI all together. No point stressing about it now, just sleep and you'll know tomorrow morning for two of those three. And wait until Friday before PA is called (or later, if its really really close).
Staying up a bit longer to see how AZ goes is interesting but likely not too important anymore.
the county trends in PA WI and MI compared to 2020 are looking bad. don't get your hopes up.
Trying not to conclude this is over but... man. This is looking really over.
Trump is up 3,000,000 in the popular vote in reported precincts. That trend will not hold. Harris will flip that and then some.
NYT predicts a 0.5% Harris popular vote win based on model with current data. Hopefully it’ll be more.
Not anymore
it is not looking good. i guess we in central europe better start learning russian 😔
Their tech team is on strike so theres that at least...
Y'all probably should've invested in your military instead of letting America foot the bill
Sorry that we would rather have free healthcare and things like that, good luck!
9 PM Eastern / 6 PM Pacific
(R 9 EC Votes) Alabama - Called For Trump
(R 6) Arkansas - Called For Trump
(R 6) Iowa - Called For Trump
(R 6) Kansas - Called For Trump
(R 8) Louisiana - Called For Trump
(R 6) Mississippi - Called For Trump
(R 10) Missouri - Called For Trump
(R 5) Nebraska - Called For Trump
(R 3) North Dakota - Called For Trump
(R 7) Oklahoma - Called For Trump
(R 3) South Dakota - Called For Trump
(R 40) Texas - Called For Trump
(BG 10) Wisconsin - Called For Trump(D 19) Illinois - Called For Harris
(D 10) Minnesota - Called For Harris82,000,000 people voted early. It’s ridiculous that the race doesn’t start with those votes counted and reported.
Counting before polls close would influence voting. Even if it were "secret" you could publish fake leaks. It would devolve into a shit show of misinformation, even though we do have that already.
2 AM Eastern / 11 PM Pacific
(D - 4 EC votes) Hawaii - Called For HarrisHowdy, folks. First time doom scrolling? Enjoy the ride. I'm going to go work out and come back later
God this hurts to watch right now. There's too many data points to comprehend but too few for commentators to tell me the trend.
Just gonna put all my stuff under this comment so I don't spam this thread.
The Australian Broadcasting Commission's live blog is pretty great:
More women fewer men
Also younger voters:
- 18-29 +3%
- 30-44 +2%
- 45-64 -4%
- 65+ -1%
Predictably, musk is pushing the "voter fraud in pensylvania" narrative.
Thousands of accounts on social media platform X have been sharing this video as evidence of the "fraud" in Pennsylvania.
But the footage is actually an old and widely debunked video of election workers in Arizona that was filmed in 2022 ahead of the US midterms.
Reuters has previously reported that what the video actually shows is a "routine procedure to install memory cards into voter machines".
Despite this, the video has already been viewed hundreds of thousands of times and reposted extensively.
The ABC's map is pretty good (live map):
So far, no real surprises.
I'm multi-screening about five different media sources and am letting you know that The New York Times just updated its live presidential forecast to predict a 67% chance of a Trump victory.
The day started out with the NYT in a toss-up position, but as the count has continued, it has started to slowly creep towards Trump.
Let's remember that many votes are yet to be counted and that in 2016, this same tracker at The New York Times was predicting a Clinton victory with 95% certainty.
Fucking Dixville. You guys had no problem voting for Biden, but half can't vote for the colored lady. That's a bridge too far.
4 Republicans and 2 Undecideds.
Wow. Actually, the fact that Harris won three from a crowd like that is pretty cool.
GröpenFührer said he's going to use the military against the US citizens.
That alone from all the crazy shit he's said should result in an immediate 6-0 vote for Harris.
I can feel the anxiety the entire way from the bottom of my stomach up to my throat.
Starting to build for me
It sucks so much that it's even a doubt
Leaving this here as a refresher for today...
Jimmy Carter: The U.S. Is an “Oligarchy With Unlimited Political Bribery”
https://theintercept.com/2015/07/30/jimmy-carter-u-s-oligarchy-unlimited-political-bribery/
6 AM Eastern / 3 AM Pacific:
Guam - Harris 49.46% vs. Trump 46.22%
Northern Mariana Islands - Not voting for President.Source for NMI not voting for President.
https://www.abc.net.au/pacific/programs/pacificbeat/pacific-beat/104547042
1 - 2 AM Eastern / 10 - 11 PM Pacific
(R 3 EC Votes) Alaska - Called For Trump11 PM Eastern / 8 PM Pacific
(D 54 EC Votes) California - Called For Harris
(D 12) Washington - Called For HarrisFuck.
Thanks so much for doing this Jordan. You’re very appreciated!
10 PM Eastern / 7 PM Pacific
(BG 11 EC Votes) Arizona - Called for Trump
(BG 6) Nevada - Called For Trump
(R 4) Idaho - Called For Trump
(R 4) Montana - Called For Trump
(D 6) Utah - Called For Trump
(R 3) Wyoming - Called For Trump
(D 10) Colorado - Called For Harris
(D 5) New Mexico - Called For Harris
(D 8) Oregon - Called For HarrisMy favorite take on this comes from James Carville:
"I'm gonna sleep soundly tonight. Have a couple of bourbons, maybe a gummy or two, but yeah. Gonna sleep soundly tonight on her chances to win this thing."
Carville gets up at 4 AM to take a leak...
"WTF?"
Why da fk is CNN just totalling all the red states as if Donald Trump is winning right now? 😑😑
It excites conservative viewers and makes liberal viewers angry, and CNN only cares about people staying glued to their coverage.
It is the equivalent of rage bait.
Yeah, that's what is surely feels like. 100%.
NBC is doing that too. They called a bunch of Trump States the second polls closed, but are pretending new York is still up in the air.
I'm in Canada and anxiously following this dumb election ... mostly because I have to because whoever wins will affect my life too.
This is like watching my neighbours standing outside their burning house and having an argument about which fire department they should call ..... while the house fire grows in size. And the choices of fire departments is a regular fire department or the other department which is a bunch of guys in a half ton truck with buckets of water.
and other department is a bunch of guys in a half ton truck with buckets of water.
More like a bunch of guys actively pouring fuel on the fire while calling fire itself a "liberal hoax".
Other dept is Gangs of NY firefighters.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=e6eDVsl8Kp4lol
Shit.
Here we go! Last run through the polls before the election!
Arizona - Trump +1 to +5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/Nevada - Trump +1 to +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/Georgia - Toss-Up - Trump +1 to +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/North Carolina - Trump +2 to +4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/Pennsylvania - Toss-Up Harris +1/+2 to Trump +1/+2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/Michigan - Toss-Up Tie, Harris +1 to Trump +1/+2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/Wisconsin - Toss-Up, Harris +1/+3 to Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/Plotted on the map:
Advantage is with Trump in this scenario.
Assuming he takes Georgia, 2020 was an anomaly in my mind, GA has gone Republican in every other election since 1996, that gives Trump 264.
Which means if Harris loses ANY other state, she's done. She has to sweep PA, MI and WI to hit 274.
If the disaffected Arab vote in MI is enough to flip it, plus a Trump win in Georgia, that puts him at 279 to Harris 259. A scarily likely scenario.
Honestly, with all the news showing how poll herding has been happening, I think it's quite likely she sweeps the swing states. I'm less nervous now than I was a few days ago.
people voting for harris are far less likely to answer random phonecalls or follow random links to do polling.
👍
My prediction is still Harris takes the popular vote, Trump the EC. I hate it here.
Trump hasn't won a popular vote yet, so that's a good call!
I don't think Trump has any chance at winning the popular vote. The EC will be close, but I think Harris has a great chance at winning PA, MI, and WI, which would bring her to 270 without any other swing state. Very likely scenario in my mind.
The broadcaster in Canada interviewed a young Trump supporter woman. She said all the abortion fears are made up. And that abortion isn't real healthcare.
well, half of the women have below average intelligence 🤷♂️
You're a good feminist, telling women what to think!
this ain't happening folks. fuck.
There's no excuse this time around. People know exactly who Trump is, and they have voted for him a second time.
I don't have much to say. I feel a mix of anger and disappointment.
Hopefully the Dems will be able to pick someone better to lead the party four years from now... I wonder what the world will look like four years from now.
3 AM Eastern / 12 Midnight Pacific
American Samoa -Updates from AP's decision desk:
Virginia:
As of about 9:30 p.m. EST, Harris isn’t doing as well as Biden in election returns at the same time during his race four years ago. Election officials in several counties in Virginia have also not yet reported results for votes cast by mail, which tend to favor Democrats. The race is too early to call.
North Carolina:
Trump is leading Harris by roughly 4 percentage points with more than half of the expected votes counted. Many of the state’s most populous counties haven’t reported significant numbers of votes cast in person on or before Election Day. In North Carolina, votes cast before Election Day made up 83% of total votes in 2020 and 58% in 2022.
So uh.. what's the right attitude to deal with this assuming we get a Trump? And I mean personally. I lean towards absurdism.
AP decision desk update for Michigan:
More than half of Michigan’s 83 counties had not reported any votes two hours after polls closed in much of the state. Only a handful of votes had been reported in Wayne and Macomb counties in the Detroit area, which tend to favor Democrats and Republicans, respectively.
Ra Ra Wish Putin.
You sure showed those immigrants.
Edit: it rhymes in American voter
Edit edit: Oh wow Cruz is back too, he can go tell them in person.
a lot of crushed teeth tonight
When you should know
"Near-complete election results are expected from Georgia, North Carolina and Michigan on Tuesday night, but only partial results from Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Arizona, Harris-Walz campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon told reporters in a Monday afternoon briefing,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“Dillon predicted additional results from Wisconsin and Pennsylvania will be available earlier in the day Wednesday, with Arizona and Nevada trickling in the rest of the week.”
Said Dillon: “We’re going to continue to see new votes being reported for many days after Election Day. We believe this race is going to be incredibly close, so we may not know the results of this election for several days.”
There is a somewhat close battle in Texas over the electoral college
I know it’s too early to tell but Tx being blue is making me so hard 😂
It’s leaning red again, but only 11% reporting, so it’s still too early.
Unfortunately (but probably not surprisingly) AP just called Texas for Trump.
It’s a good sign! Hopefully not a blue mirage.
The final hours before the shit show. Let's go!!
Alright seppos time to get that vote out cunts.
Anyone got ten bucks right now on Trump declaring victory in the next 2 hours (from 6:21 pacific time) and saying everything after that is stolen?
Yeah I think that's the plan. IDK enough about states & timezones to say exactly when but surely we're approaching that time.
I’m working in a pretty much outside information-free environment until almost 11pm tonight. Really glad to not have a window seat to this rollercoaster. Cast my vote early, so my duty is done.
Friends, it looks like North Carolina (along with Georgia) is lost, this means Harris needs to win Pennsylvania (+ Winsconsin and Michigan) or it’s over.
Everyone who supported Harris campaigning with Cheney, this is on you.
Everyone who supported/ didn't demand better from Harris with regards to her stance on Gaza, this is on you.
If you accepted the Democrats for failing on raising the minimum wage because "parliamentarian", this is on you.
If you accepted the Democrats failing to pursue prosecution regarding Trumps multiple attempts at stealing the election until 2023, this is on you.
Mate, things are gloomy enough right now without this type of accusatory comment.
Everyone has voted, the die is cast, if we lose everyone left of centre will be in mourning for a long time.
There's a lot I could say about your position and opinions but I just don't think this is the place.
I'd encourage you to think carefully about the type of commenter you want to be in this very troubled time.
What, no blame for Netanyahu or the tens of millions who voted for the felon? Or the EC? Or the muskrat?
Found this Australian site that's covering the election from over on MetaFilter, they've definitely got the best laid out map I've seen tonight.
The UK uses similar maps
This guy civs
Boris Johnson and Stormy Daniels on Channel 4 (uk)!
Florida looking bad.
Yeh, but Florida always looks bad
An Arkansan once told me that Florida was America's armpit.
Any ideas what might be the best way to observe this shit show unfold if your not in the US?
... other than here I mean.
Edit: for those wondering the time zones are:
Pacific: UTC -8:00 Eastern: UTC -5:00
ABC News live on YouTube.
I'm watching the live streams on CNN and MSNBC, I'm assuming those are available internationally through their websites.
Under The Desk News is going to have a YouTube live stream. I'm assuming they won't be the only one.
The Australian Public broadcaster (also called ABC) has live coverage:
Y'all are doomscrolling and there is like 80 million votes to count yet in mail ballots, sheesh
NYT, as of 10:40 p.m. Eastern US. 😬
So disgusting
Good news for pollsters. They weren't so wrong after all.
Thank you for your service!
Would be helpful if the megapost showed the current overall standing. Or am I missing something?
Yup, that's the plan once results start rolling in tomorrow! I just wanted to have all the structure in place first!
Noyce.
Appreciate you putting this together!
Any predictions on what musk / xitter's role in all this will be?
They can basically call states for republicans early.
Musk will likely be promoting anything claiming a Trump win, but I don't think X has their own election coverage, do they?
That's kind of what I mean. They don't have their own formal coverage, but they can manipulate the prevalence of different narratives.
If officials refuse to certify whatever states, having the perceived support of the public can make all the difference.
He's funding Trump, and Trump will change laws to benefit him.
A higher minimum wage by Harris isn't good for him
That's true, but I was referring to what stunts Musk might pull during the count / certification to tip it to Trump.
Although I think Harris will win she probably has 55-45 odds, this following map is the most likely electoral college outcome in my homemade dataanalysis model
https://presidentialpickem.com/share-bracket/16ead2df-6737-4704-86d4-6f606d6e6a07 This map happens in about 15% of simulations.
This map happens in about 15% of simulations
I'm not being critical of your analysis but I think this is a fairly meaningless statement?
If you considered all maps with any significant probability, and collated / weighted their results, the outcome would be 50:50 - the same as what every pollster has been telling us for the last several weeks.
Holy shit I hate to say this. But it looks like that map was exactly correct.
Well good night folks. I hope blue wall results trickle in over the night paint a more positive picture.
Because the picture uptill now, especially considering many ballots counted during the day were prioritised EV or vote by mail ballots, is looking pretty grim.
First results are in. 3 for Harris and 3 for Trump in Dixville Notch.
3 hours to the next. Gyam, Northern Mariana Islands, but no EC votes.
Evil comes in orange.
Texas didn't turn blue, but some inland states that were red did turn blue
Source: AP News
This is based on like 2% vote totals counting mail ballots from metro areas, means absolutely nothing.
Not any more.
Which would those be? Canadian asking.
Harris is on track to lose the entire Rustbelt, the entire sunbelt.
AP decision desk update for Arizona:
Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix, has reported its first votes. The massive county is key for candidates. Its first update included more than a million votes, about half of the expected total there. The first reported votes were ballots that arrived or were cast ahead of Election Day. County election officials have warned it could take as long as 13 days to tabulate all ballots.
I hope fivethirtyeight’s caveman election model is more accurate than the NYT one.
Razer thin
When the ultimate loser donald trump loses, he loses. When he wins, everybody loses, including him.
Amazing in a way.
It's hard to let go of an entire world all at once.
AP calls Vermont for Harris
Indiana for Trump
Kentucky for TrumpHarris rally live with Oprah and Lady Gaga https://www.youtube.com/live/HUbZ1vD9ChY
I wish Cholensky would finally be President.
What ...? Who?
Eh don't cross the strike
I can't
Oh god. It's leaning the wrong way. I'm not going to create an NYT account so I can watch it.
Looking forward to checking the results on my next break and seeing trump winning every swing state. I knew he would win, it is both the funniest and worst outcome, it was meant to be. We're gonna watch his brain turn ever more thoroughly into goo for the next ~4 years and make even more insane headlines than last time.
*on my next break and I called it lol. Nothing called by AP yet but he's up in MI, PA, GA, and WI. Strap in.
yeah so hilarious that this demented old shitbag has the nuclear codes, power to further strengthen the corrupt SCOTUS and larger judicial system, completely dismantle what little progress we could have hoped for with climate change, gut the federal govt of anyone who may oppose him, is buddies with Putin and Netanyahu, etc etc.
It's either laugh or cry. Besides we've been here before, he (personally) is not more dangerous now than he was for his last term.
Harris is currently losing VA. If Harris loses VA, this is over.
Harris will win VA. NYT model gives her >80% odds of winning VA with expected margin of +5.
Don’t speculate based on incomplete counts. We’ve got models that do that far better than humans.
Although looks like harris is in a tough spot. Going to be a close victory for her, or a Trump victory. NYT model is giving Ttump 60% odds.
As of this comment and according to AP, Trump is only winning by a little more than a percentage point with 51% of the count remaining. It's not time to doom over VA yet.
Harris will win VA but the speed in which VA gets called for her is an indication on her overall performance
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