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kescusay kescusay @lemmy.world

Developer and refugee from Reddit

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Comments 1.6K
Harris leads Trump 44% to 42% in US presidential race, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds
  • Here's what's been on my mind about polls for the last year or so...

    In 2016, we all know that the national polls were basically accurate, giving Hillary Clinton the popular vote - and she did indeed win the popular vote. But the state polls were off significantly in the states that mattered for that election.

    In 2017, with retooled polls, the off-year elections basically matched up with what the pollsters said.

    In 2018, the polls predicted a blue wave, and it fully materialized, with Democrats even over-performing.

    In 2019, the polls were still pretty accurate, but again, Democrats over-performed in special elections.

    In 2020, the polls at all levels except the presidency underestimated Democratic support.

    In 2021, the Democrats again over-performed versus the polls.

    In 2022, Democrats not only over-performed, they completely obliterated the supposed "red wave" that was supposed to occur that year. It became a pink trickle, with Republicans taking the House by the barest thread, and Democrats unexpectedly increasing their lead in the Senate.

    In 2023, Democrats over-performed again in special elections.

    In this year's early special election, Democrats are still over-performing versus the polls.


    Democrats have been consistently exceeding the expectations set by polls since around 2018. And I have a hypothesis about it: Pollsters are basically fucked for the time being.

    Here's why:

    • Phone polls are getting harder and harder to conduct. Especially with young people, who never answer calls to their cellphones from unknown numbers. So pollsters are relying more and more on the few landlines remaining, and the demographics of those respondents skew conservative. They can only do so much weighting to try to mitigate the problem of oversampling conservatives.
    • Online polls and texting polls are improving, but still very hard to conduct in a scientifically rigorous manner.
    • Young people are voting. This is a relatively new phenomenon, and the pollsters haven't yet figured out how to properly predict the voting proclivities - and thus weight the answers - of young people who are much more engaged politically than previous generations.

    I've held for some time that the polls between Biden and Trump might have anywhere from a four point to a nine point error in Trump's favor. And that might apply to Harris and Trump as well.

    So... Harris has a two-point lead in this poll. If the polling error hasn't been fixed this cycle - and I don't think it has - her real lead might be six points. And it might be eleven points.

    I think there might be good reason to hope. BUT....

    The pollsters might have figured their shit out. Maybe the polling error is fixed. There's no way to know until the election. And here's what we need to do: Prove that it's not fixed yet and make Harris massively over-perform versus the polls. Sweep the motherfuckers out of the House and Senate while you're at it. Show that the polls since 2017 have continued to underestimate Democratic support, and kick the fucking fascists in the fucking teeth - electorally speaking, of course.

  • Republican calls for ‘civil war’ if Trump loses
  • And those same mendacious, disingenuous fuck-knuckles get pseudo-patriotism boners when Trump whips out the "I took a bullet for democracy" line, without an ounce of shame or even self-awareness.

  • House Republican Rips ‘DEI Hire’ Kamala Harris: ‘What About White Females?’
  • Hey, anyone remember those old peanut butter cup ads? The ones where some peanut butter and chocolate get mixed together accidentally and people realize they taste good together?

    This is just like those ads! Except with misogyny and racism, of course.

  • Ohio GOP Senator Says 'Civil War' Needed If Trump Loses.
  • Suggesting that a war should be waged against the democratically-elected government of the United States seems... Well, it seems kinda treason-y to me. Just a smidge.

  • Harris raises $81 million in 24 hours since Biden dropped out, endorsed her, setting new presidential donation record
  • She seems young and vigorous in comparison to Biden. She seems sane and competent in comparison to Trump. She seems lacking in brain worms in comparison to RFK. She's a triple threat!

  • Microsoft points finger at the EU for not being able to lock down Windows
  • Nope. It's a lower level kernel API that has to be accessed at boot via a driver. The API I was thinking of - and I use the term "thinking" loosely, here - is an API that userspace applications can take advantage of to scan files after boot is already complete.

  • Microsoft points finger at the EU for not being able to lock down Windows
  • I stand corrected. For some reason, I was thinking they used the actual Windows Defender API, which can be called programmatically from third-party applications, but you're correct, it was a driver loaded at boot. Microsoft isn't at all at fault, here.

  • Kamala Harris Launches Presidential Bid: ‘My Intention Is to Earn and Win This Nomination’
    • You: Racism and sexism exist!

    • Me: Yes, but Democrats have managed to overcome both in recent elections.

    • You: Well... Kamala Harris just sucks! For reasons!

    Okay, filing this conversation away with other wastes of time.

  • Microsoft points finger at the EU for not being able to lock down Windows
  • The thing is, Microsoft's virus-scanning API shouldn't be able to BSOD anything, no matter what third-party software makes calls to it, or the nature of those calls. They should have implemented some kind of error handler for when the calls are malformed.

    So this is really a case of both Crowdstrike and Microsoft fucking up. Crowdstrike shoulders most of the blame, of course, but Microsoft really needs to harden their API to appropriately catch errors, or this will happen again.

    I'm an idiot. For some reason, I was thinking about the Windows Defender API, which can be called from third-party applications.

  • Kamala Harris Launches Presidential Bid: ‘My Intention Is to Earn and Win This Nomination’
  • In 2008, Barack Obama won. In 2016, Hillary Clinton got the popular vote, even after a continuous character assassination campaign of 25 years.

    Yes, there are racist and sexist Democrats. But in both years, the clear majority of Democrats overcame the racist and sexist ones.

    If you're not willing to actually cough up some evidence for why Kamala Harris can't win, then you're just being fatalistic and cynical for no good reason.

  • Now, We Beat Trump.
  • Whitmer would be fine. At this point, I'm just happy to see some party unity again. Moore is right that this was a courageous act on Biden's part.

  • Kamala Harris Launches Presidential Bid: ‘My Intention Is to Earn and Win This Nomination’
  • She can.

    Want to keep going like this? Or do you maybe want to have a real conversation and express a point beyond fatalism?

  • Harris, endorsed by Biden, could become first woman, second Black person to be president
  • Oh, for fuck's sake... No, what I'm describing is a logical problem with your statements.

    First, let's get this out of the way: Race is a social construct. We differentiate between "black" and "white" in large part because of racism. Ta-Nehisi Coates has written a lot about how without racism, we wouldn't perceive each other as different because of such a tiny variation as the color of our skin, and I tend to think he's right. Concepts of race, as opposed to minor genetic variance, are predicated on racism.

    With that said, when you call someone "non-white," you can mean it in the technical sense of not having Caucasian ancestry, which applies to neither Obama nor Harris (which I'm positive you didn't know until now, since you've been calling her "non-white" in this sense), or you can mean it in the sense of a social construct, which applies to both Obama and Harris.

    There is no definition of "non-white" that applies to one, but not the other. Both have some Caucasian ancestry. Both are perceived socially as non-white because of how their bodies express certain alleles. Pick one definition and stick to it.

  • Kamala Harris Launches Presidential Bid: ‘My Intention Is to Earn and Win This Nomination’
  • Don't cut yourself on that edge, man.

    Here in the real world, which you should spend some time in, Kamala Harris can win, but that doesn't mean she will win, and people should recognize that, of course. But fuck fatalism.

  • Harris, endorsed by Biden, could become first woman, second Black person to be president
  • Again, this is just linguistics games. Obama is the first non-white president if your definition of "non-white" is something like, "A person whose ethnicity/ethnic identity is something other than white." Assuming she wins, Harris will be the first non-white president if your definition of "non-white" is something like, "A person whose ancestry does not include any Caucasians."

    Or rather, she would be if her father didn't have any Caucasian ancestry. But he does. You knew that, didn't you? Didn't you?

  • Donald Trump donated to Kamala Harris' campaigns twice while he was a private citizen, records show
  • Honestly, he's never been a Democrat or a Republican. Even now, if you go by what the Republican party was before he took it over. He's always been a Trumpist, nothing more and nothing less. He cares solely, without exception, for one thing: Donald Trump.

  • Oregon Country Fair starts tomorrow!

    If you're attending, you can read the Peach Pit online here. I'm not going to be able to make it this year, but hope Eugeneans who can have a great time.

    And stay hydrated! It's still going to be beastly hot out!

    0

    New law calls for creation of ‘first-ever’ national plan, council to conquer Parkinson’s disease

    I'm linking this here because people who are spamming articles about "OMG Biden has Parkinson's disease!!!1!11" need to see this.

    The New York Times did not do their homework. At all. Biden probably met with a Parkinson's doctor because he was working on a bipartisan Parkinson's research and treatment bill which he just signed into law.

    It's not a flashy, attention-grabbing bill. He's been working on it quietly. But still... The rampant speculation, when he's absolutely not showing the slightest signs of beginning Parkinson's - let alone the advanced stages that would start to affect his mind - is disgusting.

    Parkinson's causes extremely well-known symptoms, tremors most notably. Parkinson's dementia sometimes arises in advanced stages, long after tremors would have been constantly visible.

    The chances he has Parkinson's are incredibly slim.

    0
    apnews.com President Joe Biden's son, Hunter Biden, is convicted of all 3 felonies in federal gun trial

    Hunter Biden has been convicted of all three felony charges related to the purchase of a revolver in 2018 when, prosecutors argued, the president’s son lied on a mandatory gun-purchase form by saying he was not illegally using or addicted to drugs.

    President Joe Biden's son, Hunter Biden, is convicted of all 3 felonies in federal gun trial
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    Help!

    Hi everyone,

    News is weird. When it's weird enough, it reads like articles from The Onion, and that's what we're all about. But as the community grows, there's more and more content being posted here that just isn't very Onion-y.

    > Jimmy Carter Becomes Second President Convicted Of Felony For Sticking Up Waffle House

    Take a look at that headline from The Onion today. Or this one:

    > World Series Of Poker Entrants Play One Hand Face-Up So Everyone Can Learn Rules

    Or this one:

    > New Hormone-Free IUD Wards Off Sperm With Steady Emission Of Police-Grade Pepper Spray

    That's the flavor we're going for. We want real, credible news articles with headlines that read like they're from The Onion.

    This is not the community for:

    • Non-Onion-y political news (it's gotta be absurd enough to look Onion-y)
    • Non-Onion-y regular news (it's gotta be absurd enough to look Onion-y)
    • Satire (it's gotta be actual news)
    • Fake news from fly-by-night "news" sites (again, it's gotta be actual news)

    That means not every ridiculous thing a politician does qualifies as appropriate content here.

    I need your help, though... I need people to report content that just isn't Onion-y, and I need people to try not to post non-Onion-y content in the first place.

    Finally, I need help moderating, so this is also a formal call for new mods! Post below if you think you're ready to take on moderation for one of the larger Lemmy communities! Tell me why you'd like to mod, and link to a news story from any time (it doesn't have to be current) that has a properly Onion-y headline, to show that you really get this community.

    I'll pick two people to become new moderators for the community from participants. Good luck!

    45
    apnews.com Kansas Constitution does not include a right to vote, state Supreme Court majority says

    The Kansas Supreme Court's majority has held that there is no state constitutional right to vote in the state.

    Kansas Constitution does not include a right to vote, state Supreme Court majority says
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    www.klcc.org Lisa Fragala claims victory in race for Oregon House District 8 seat

    The race to replace longtime state lawmaker Paul Holvey in a Eugene-area legislative seat ended in a decisive victory on Election Night.

    Lisa Fragala claims victory in race for Oregon House District 8 seat
    0
    www.klcc.org Voters backing school funding in Portland and Eugene, but not in Bend-La Pine

    Three of Oregon’s largest school districts had measures on the May ballot to either establish or renew levies in their communities, but just Portland Public and Eugene appeared to have gotten a “yes” from voters.

    Voters backing school funding in Portland and Eugene, but not in Bend-La Pine
    0
    www.klcc.org Eugene voters reject STAR Voting proposal

    Eugene voters have rejected a proposal for a new rating-based election system.

    Eugene voters reject STAR Voting proposal
    5
    www.mediaite.com MSNBC Guest Says He Spotted Trump ‘Editing’ Speeches Allies Made Outside the Courtroom

    Andrew Rice claimed on Tuesday that he spotted former President Donald Trump "editing" the speeches his allies made outside of the courtroom.

    MSNBC Guest Says He Spotted Trump ‘Editing’ Speeches Allies Made Outside the Courtroom

    Some context:

    > Former Trump White House Communications Director Michael Dubke suggested on CNN Tuesday that Trump had mobilized his allies and proxies to the courthouse in an effort to “get around the gag order” imposed on him by Judge Merchan.

    Yep. He's trying to violate the gag order indirectly. Unfortunately for him, the gag order specifically includes attempting to have surrogates violate the order on his behalf.

    I suspect there's another gag order hearing incoming.

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    variety.com Roger Corman, Pioneering Independent Producer and King of B Movies, Dies at 98

    Roger Corman, who directed and produced hundreds of B movies and discovered Jack Nicholson, Martin Scorsese and Robert De Niro, has died. He was 98.

    Roger Corman, Pioneering Independent Producer and King of B Movies, Dies at 98
    1
    www.nbcnews.com DOJ expected to announce indictment of Texas Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar, sources say

    Federal authorities searched the congressman's home in Laredo in 2022 as part of an investigation into the country of Azerbaijan and a group of U.S. businessmen.

    DOJ expected to announce indictment of Texas Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar, sources say

    This is what a DOJ that hasn't been twisted by political bias looks like. It doesn't matter that Cuellar is a Democrat. If he did the crime (and he's innocent until proven guilty), he should do the time.

    Republicans: Take note.

    4

    Supreme Court arguments on Trump immunity case

    www.cnn.com Live updates: Supreme Court arguments on Trump immunity case

    The Supreme Court is hearing arguments Thursday in the blockbuster case over whether former President Donald Trump may claim immunity from prosecution in the federal election subversion case. Follow here for the latest live news updates, analysis and more.

    Live updates: Supreme Court arguments on Trump immunity case

    The Supreme Court is currently hearing arguments on Trump's claim of "absolute immunity." Several news organizations are carrying the arguments live (including the linked article). You can also listen on several YouTube channels, including:

    16
    amp.cnn.com Trump co-defendant in classified documents case was told he’d be pardoned in a second term, notes in FBI interview say | CNN Politics

    Donald Trump’s valet Walt Nauta was told that if he was charged with lying to the FBI, the former president would pardon him when he won a second term in 2024, according to notes from an interview with a witness in the federal classified documents investigation.

    Trump co-defendant in classified documents case was told he’d be pardoned in a second term, notes in FBI interview say | CNN Politics

    > Donald Trump’s valet Walt Nauta was told that if he was charged with lying to the FBI, the former president would pardon him when he won a second term in 2024, according to notes from an interview with a witness in the federal classified documents investigation.

    9

    > Those calls came after numerous media outlets reported potentially identifying biographical information about the woman, including her job and the neighborhood she called home. Fox News Jesse Watters highlighted the juror's details while reading through public pool notes about the selected members. "This nurse scares me if I'm Trump," Watters said.

    104

    How did you treat COVID-19?

    I've just finally contracted it for the first time. I'm vaxxed and multiple-times-boosted, so it's not that bad...

    But it's still pretty fucking miserable. Ugh. The paxlovid seems to be helping some, but in return it's giving me the most horrendous taste in my mouth. Like a battery fucked a lemon in there.

    What worked for you when you caught it, lemmings?

    Edit: Holy cats, you guys came through! Thank you all for your various recommendations. The gist of it seems to be:

    • Definitely stay on the paxlovid (and use pineapple to deal with the awful taste in my mouth that's a side-effect).
    • Rest. Fucking REST! Do not, under any circumstances, stop resting until it's run its course. (Fortunately already doing that, since I've been feeling half-past dead.)
    • Ibuprofen, acetaminophen, and mucinex are my dear, sweet friends. (I'm already a big fan of mucinex, so I have some already.)
    • Drink a lot of water. (I have a comically oversized cup I've been using for that.)

    And I gotta say... Now, as the end of the day approaches, I think I might, just maybe, be feeling a tad better. Thank you all!

    44

    Italian island overrun by goats is offering them free to anyone who can catch them

    www.cnn.com Italian island overrun by goats is offering them free to anyone who can catch them | CNN

    The tiny, remote Italian island of Alicudi is home to only around 100 residents and, ideally, about 100 wild goats.

    Italian island overrun by goats is offering them free to anyone who can catch them | CNN
    13

    Stung – Eugene Weekly article about how the embezzlement that almost killed the paper happened

    4
    www.cnn.com Two investors in Trump Media insider trading case plead guilty | CNN Business

    Florida venture capitalist Michael Shvartsman and his brother Gerald Shvartsman pleaded guilty on Wednesday to participating in an insider trading scheme linked to the blockbuster deal that brought former President Donald Trump’s social media business public.

    Two investors in Trump Media insider trading case plead guilty | CNN Business

    > Florida venture capitalist Michael Shvartsman and his brother Gerald Shvartsman pleaded guilty on Wednesday to participating in an insider trading scheme linked to the blockbuster deal that brought former President Donald Trump’s social media business public.

    > Each of the brothers pleaded guilty in New York to one count of securities fraud, which carries a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison, according to federal prosecutors.

    4

    How do you register to vote in all fifty states?

    I don't need to know this myself, but I'm sure someone out there does, so here's how:

    https://www.usa.gov/register-to-vote

    If you're a U.S. citizen and legally allowed to vote in your state, registration is quick and easy. Get registered today if you aren't already!

    0

    Eugene museums offer affordable admission to families in need

    This is pretty nifty. Eugene has some very nice (and underrated) museums.

    3