Joe Biden suddenly leads Donald Trump in multiple polls
Joe Biden suddenly leads Donald Trump in multiple polls
The Democrat is outperforming the Republican in a series of polls.
Polls don't mean shit, go vote
Yeah, the polls had Hillary winning easily in 2016. Don't trust them.
They had her anywhere between a 70-90% chance to win. If you predict 90% chance that something will happen, and it always happens, your prediction is wrong because you should have predicted 100%.
When I hear someone say "you can't trust the polls because they got 2016 'wrong'" they are just telling me they don't understand statistics.
the polls had Hillary winning easily
Well Hillary didnt pay off her hookers 2 weeks before the election... like that kinda means he cheated. So Id say its a lot harder to win when you play by the rules. And Im not defending Hillary cuz I know she shafted Bernie, but what she did is not even on the same scope as what donnie rapist did/does on a daily basis.
They do and they don't. Some people see polls and say "why bother". Some people see polls and scream "GET OUT AND VOTE". They may not be indicative of the final outcome, but they are a motivating factor for a lot of people.
The first sane take in this whole thread. Modern polling is unreliable when the margins for victory in certain elections can come down to literally a single vote in some cases.
Show up and get counted when it matters.
Yeah, polls are stupid and useless; only the election day poll counts...though last week some idiot on here was desperately trying to defend polling is being both dependable and correct (as long as you throw out the ones that were wrong)
Amazing what a stellar State of the Union can do, but as always... national polls are useless because we don't have national elections.
Watch the polling in the key swing states. So far, it doesn't appear that new polling has been done since the State of the Union.
These are the states we want to see swing Biden.
Arizona:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/Georgia:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/Michigan:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/Nevada:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/New Mexico:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/North Carolina:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/Pennsylvania:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/Virginia:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/Wisconsin:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/Yeah. Article is bragging about 3 national polls, where Biden is winning by 3% at most...
Because of the system, Dems need popular vote, to make up for the flyover states going conservative and be worth more due to electoral college
If Biden was polling 5% over trump nationally, we should be concerned.
And I have zero faith in the DNC and people running Joe's campaign to focus on the right states to win the electoral college.
And I have zero faith in the DNC and people running Joe's campaign to focus on the right states to win the electoral college.
That's why I put North Carolina in the watch list. There are folks out there who think it's winnable a) because they assume the Nikki Haley vote will flip to Biden, and b) because the Republicans just picked a batshit CRAZY candidate for Governor on Super Tuesday.
We really need to see new polling there.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/
As of 2/29 to 3/3 it's either Trump +12 or +14, but some folks are still saying Biden can win.
Doubt.
Especially PA and Georgia, imo. If those two turn blue it decreases RNC victory odds by a metric fuckton.
PA is a nail biter right now, Biden +1 to Trump +6. Could really go either way, and it will be tough for Biden if he doesn't take it. "Son of Scranton" and all that.
I still think Georgia was a fluke in 2020. You have to go back to '92 for a D win there, and that was only because a) Clinton was a Southerner and b) Perot bled off 13% of the vote.
Probably the most relevant line in the entire article:
a series of polls have suggested Biden will narrowly beat Trump in the November vote. But with eight months to go, and the polls so tight, this could change and a number of polls have also indicated that Trump will win the election.
Whether Biden wins or loses is going to come down to how well he engages people in key states. Outside of the "blue no matter who" crowd, people have decidedly mixed feelings about voting for a candidate whose strongest argument is that he isn't Trump. Everything from events in the weeks leading up to the election to the weather (which affects Dems more than Reps) will matter, so rather than leaning on polls that suggest a victory... it might be wise to end those behaviors and policies that have human rights advocates concerned.
I don't get this point. I feel like Biden's done a great job as president so far. He's had a lot of tough issues to deal with as president and so far he's handled everything really well.
Most underrated President of all time. (Best president of my time at least).
I will donate the closer it gets and to the key races.
Objectively, he has been a mediocre president whose most impressive victories have stemmed from the fact that the economy was already recovering from a worldwide pandemic. His handling of the withdrawl from Afghanistan was an appalling travesty that got countless innocents killed, his two-faced positions on Gaza (lamenting the human rights abuses while cutting aid and supplying weapons,) the fact that the interest rate for home loans has skyrocketed in an already difficult to afford housing market, and quite honestly, his racist and homophobic past make him difficult to swallow.
It's going to depend on the severity of several pending scandals and what the Saudis decide to do with oil prices between now and November. Democrats should have an astronomical campaign warchest while the GOP is blowing their wad on the candidate's legal bills. The Democrats game to lose and that's their expertise.
it strikes me that congress might have authority under the 14th amendment to ban winner-take-all apportionment of electors and gerrymandering
The fact things are this close is amazingly disappointing in humanity as a whole.
On the one side, you have Trump who wants to be a dictator, actively hates anyone who isn't white and conervative, said he wants to kill his political opponents, tried to overthrow the government, had a 4 year presidency that was basically an episode of Jersey Shore everyday, and idolizes Putin/Hitler/etc.
And then there is Biden, who isn't super "exciting", old AF, and supports Israel too much for political reasons, but otherwise has done an alright job as president for 4 years.
How are the polls and the race even remotely this close? It's no wonder we can't do something like fix climate change as a society when people are this fracking stupid.
as a society when people are this fracking stupid.
Remember all those times when a certain party cut back spending on education? That's how we get to where we are today.
It wasn't just the judges that were part of a long-term plan.
I have a sister-in-law that thinks I'm crazy every time I say that the systematic sabotage of education is part of the plan to dumb down America and turn people into uneducated Republican voters.
I plan to vote for Biden.
I do not plan on telling any polls that. If Biden polls too well, I'm convinced voters will be complacent and risk not voting.
Fptp voting is how
Simple
That's not everything, but it's a big part of it.
Sabotage of the education system Systemic and hostile takeover of the Judicial system Crowbaring Religious bigotry into government
There are more than one reason.
supports Israel too much for political reasons
Now c'mon, does this statement really embrace reality? Aside from it's toxic passivity, it's not even true. Biden's brand of support for Israel has been absolutely toxic politically. He supports Israel because it is the hub of US power projection in the Middle East.
Sounds like a political reason to me
@chronicledmonocle @Rapidcreek too bad he's busy running on GOP talking points when it comes to immigration. Yet another self-inflicted wound.
Biden is an effective President brought down by poor PR and image in the eyes of voters.
Ahhh yeah, the milquetoast liberal criticism of Joe Biden as “unexciting.” Go get him, tiger.
Your comment is a shining beacon for American ignorance.
"Unexciting" is a paraphrasing of "Sleepy Joe", the Republican pet name for Biden that seems to highlight his absolute worst attribute.
Aside from his expected support of Israel which every single POTUS before him has upheld since the creation of Israel, what ways is Joe Biden the new devil?
Yeah extreme times calls for extreme takes and hopefully flash them only during a quick seconds with background music or the dopamine wilts
Amazing what happens when Democrats try even slightly.
What's the point in starting your campaign early when it's just a rehash of the last one? The only reason trump started campaigning so early is to stay out of jail. Biden doesn't need to spend money now when the impact will be far greater the farther into the race we get.
I wouldn't hold my breath on these numbers.
Another poll of 1,350 registered voters by Emerson College put Biden ahead of the Republican by two percentage points, 51 percent to 49 percent. The survey was carried out between March 5 and 6.
Of the 6,334 registered voters surveyed by Morning Consult between March 1 and 5, 44 percent would vote for Biden and 43 percent for Trump.
And Biden would beat Trump 43 percent to 42 percent, according to TIPP polling.
1-2% points is a slimmer margin than Gore had against Bush in '00 and Hillary had against Trump in '16. Both are inside the margin of error, even.
Looks even worse when you get to the bigger battleground states - your Arizona and Georgia and Pennsylvanias - where people are seriously pilled on the Invading Hordes of Illegals narratives. Nevermind the Midwest states - Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan - with the large enclaves of Muslim voters, who aren't super thrilled with the genocides Biden keeps funneling money and military equipment into.
You know he was behind, right? These polls reflect trajectory, not dominance. I'd all but given up hope completely before this 🤷
I agree he needs the leftist and Muslim vote in the rust belt. But besides a reversal I'm decades of US single state policy, which he's now done, along with investing in aid infrastructure, not sure what more can be done. People wanna get Trump elected to spite themselves, can't get through to them- equally cultist as GOP. The 2024 Bernie Bro.
Remember that the 2024 election will boil down the WI, MI, PA, GA and AZ. Whichever candidate wins 3 of those 5 states (minimum) will win the election. It's mathematically impossible to get to 270 otherwise.
I'm still voting for Biden in a red state. We used to be more purple and really still are if looking just at the popular vote. He lost here by 500k votes in 2020 but it's very possible these narratives being pushed about swing states affect turnout more than we give credit for. We're lucky to get 50% turnout of registered voters in presidential elections. Local elections are more like 25% if we're being generous, and those are more important.
Wow, extremely low
Boots on the ground here... GA isn't looking good.
GA comes down to the Black vote and Black voter turnout. And Black Georgians are making Biden work for their vote right now. Understandably so.
Is this 🫱🦋 a democracy?
Do not believe polls. Vote regardless. Democracy prevails only if we vote in great numbers.
This is going to make Republicans seethe and will remind them of the mail-in ballots. I'm sure there will be talk of fakery, no matter who collected the data.
Trump ahead: of course! Biden ahead: FAKE NEWS
Most people don't understand probability, they must never have spent any time grinding low % drop rates. Things that have a 28.6% chance are not mind-blowing when they happen.
But, nonetheless it's a very good reminder that hopefully people will learn from. But people en masse learning a lesson beyond a single 4 year period, let alone two, well now that would be mind-blowing.
Who still listens to polls, they seem to be wrong more than they're right!
The voting electorate is extremely fickle and the only poll that matters is the one they go to on election day.
Polls are not for saying what will happen but what the one paying it wants to happen.
Nice to see something positive.
Ehh, they gerrymandered a shit ton and Biden is insanely less popular now than he was 4 years ago.
I fear for the worst.
Gerrymandering has nothing to do with the presidential election.
Eh. It affects the composition of state and local governments, which is what allows for voter disenfranchisement policies in red areas, which dramatically affects presidential elections.
You can't possibly be that ignorant
There is less gerrymandering now than there was 4 years ago--some court cases have switched things in some states like Wisconsin--and gerrymandering doesn't directly apply to the President. There are some indirect effects.
LOL
So they're going to call random people in swing states and ask them who they'll vote for.
What if one side decided to tell all their voters to say the other side to give them a sense of security, then push hard to out vote them...
Polls cannot be trusted, they're so really manipulated. Gerrymandering is worse than ever in most places...
Most people questioned do not think that hard about it
And that's exactly why the polls are fixable because people that hear about the poles go oh they're right, people can't be thinking that hard about it and organizing to throw the numbers off. You know like it happened in 2012. How are the poles so far off but the voting so close?
Because the poles are easily rigged.
Oh yes, the "He's going to win."
Poll favors Trump = Polls are inaccurate; they only survey boomers at home that still answer unknown numbers from their landline!
Poll favors Biden = Polls are very accurate.
Genocide Joe propaganda bomb..
Nobody wants Biden, but would you rather have Project 2025 become a reality?
Please, for the sake of the country, vote blue no matter who.
Get back under your bridge!