it won't be though. spacex tech is massively reliant on NASA. if they do it they'll hurt spacex in the long run. which means they'll probably do it because musk is a fucking moron.
We saw what happened the last time space infrastructure was privatized.
Boeing gave all the money to the stockholders and delivered a criminally late product that ended up failing and stranding our astronauts. Boeing obviously didn't care to test if the Teflon in those thrusters could survive repeated heatings.
SpaceX decided to go backwards in rocket technology, from Hydrogen to Methane. Hydrogen is more efficient, and makes it easier to bury carbon responsibly. Sure, Boeing's rockets got made fun of for being leaky, but I think that might be Boeing more than Hydrogen at fault. Dirty Methane rockets were cheap, and could be built simple as they experienced less thermal variation without cryogenic fuel.
SpaceX undercut the competition and turned itself into a monopoly while Boeing threw their hand to the stockholders. Now SpaceX picks up the pieces of the game they upended.
NASA was supposed to manage a thriving marketplace, full of competition. Instead it managed its way to a monopolistic structure that a single entity may try to sieze.
Fun fact about autocratic structures like monopolies and dictatorships: they can't grow power themselves, they can only sieze power organized by others.
We need to build our next wave of structures in a distributed fashion such that the levers of power are not so concentrated that they may fall into the wrong hands.
Space travel is exceptional in that you need an incredible amount of cooperation to get a project into space. The supply chains are insane, the component parts highly specialized and hugely expensive, and the range of expertise and knowledge required is simultaneously focused and intense and broad and varied. If human society ever does manage to transition to a genuine people power, space flight will be, to my knowledge, the very last thing we achieve, because it takes so many people working together to get it done. The scope of these projects makes you realise how easy it must have been to build the pyramids. Two brothers can build a plane that just about works, but to get a vehicle to orbit needs a city of people working together.
That's all the reason it should be easier to distribute power. More people to distribute it between!
Remember when we paid people to do those things directly?
We, the American people, paid a lot of people each a reasonable salary to get to the moon.
Privatized spaceflight has we, the American people, pay a single entity less total money (they can make it more efficient, of course!). This concentrates decision-making and power.
That vehicle going in to orbit needs a city to work together. I want my taxes to pay that city and the people in it, not Boeing's shareholders who aren't helping put the vehicle into orbit, not Musk to build a second smaller city in Texas he is king of.
Thank you for your points. I completely agree that we should be paying the workers on the ground who get us to space instead of the wealthy who claim to own it.
Space exploration certainly will be the final frontier, its the last thing this pathetic species will have ever worked on before blinking out of existence.
Ahem. Investors! I have the concept of a plan to put gigantic billboards in space that can be seen by half the planet at any given time. Give me money.
In one of the Red Dwarf books, there's a subplot about sending hundreds of stars supernova simultaneous in order to spell out Coke Adds Life in the sky.
I had a lengthy argument with someone that Musk couldn't possibly be kissing Trump's ass for money - he's a billionaire after all and "has all the money he needs". No no, Musk is doing this out of the goodness of his cold billionaire heart. Isn't it obvious?
Elongated Muskrat is a billionaire who wants to become the first trillionaire. That’s what these people aren’t getting. It’s all just a game to him. He thinks that he lives in a simulation and everyone else is an NPC. He now wants to set a new high score.
As we all know, the ultra-rich are famous for getting to a certain level of wealth and saying, "NO MORE! I RENOUNCE THIS CAPITALIST SOCIETY AND NOW ONLY WORK FOR THE GOOD OF HUMANITY!"
I had similar arguments and the synopsis is that people can't admit being wrong because it makes them look weak. It's a toxic masculinity and ego thing.
You basically double down on the bet and ride the boat right into hell over the waterfall.
Dead, but you never had to admit the other person was right about the waterfall!
That's how kids were taught to think when I was in school. Did you get something wrong on your first try? You're a failure! Take your F and move on, you're not allowed to try again unless you fail your entire grade level. 12 years of my school system taught many people to have that ego you mentioned, myself included. I graduated high school 10 years ago and still struggle accepting my failures. I have to remind myself that in real life I can actually learn from my mistakes. Unfortunately many people never have that realization.
They have a sense of "enough" and the concept of a thousand millions for someone who barely had a thousand hundreds or even just a thousand is so far out of their realm of understanding that they think "enough" must be a concept for capitalists too
Yet another page from Trump’s playbook. People insisted that Trump couldn’t be bribed because he was so rich, and that he was financing his own campaign, so he could be the only non-corrupt politician. Obviously these people are quite naive and don’t understand how wealthy Kelle tend to operate - always wanting more, more, more.
Some other country is gonna have the new nasa, and the united states is going to fall even further behind. It'll just be a brain drain and most of it isn't going to go to space-x.
If you're a fundamental researcher, engineer, etc. come to the UK. We've got SO many job openings for those roles and would love to bring in talent to fill those roles because the local gammon isn't up to the job.
Remember when on Interstellar there's this whole prologue about the collapse of the US, the dismantling of NASA and the family getting on an argument with the school because the official stance now is that the moon landing never happened and mankind never went to space (despite there being still people alive who went there)?
I remember when that movie came out people argued with me that the Democrats were the party that was going to create the world of Interstellar and the Republicans were "standing up for science".
It was obviously nonsense then so i have little illusions that those people have changed their view on it--or if they have, they've simply changed to believe the moon landing was faked.
Recently there was a rerun of interstellar in IMAX at our local IMAX theatre. Rewatched it and had some pretty shocking revelations that I did not think of when I watched it for the first time. The rewriting of history being prime amongst them
SpaceX has been a huge success for NASA. For much less funding than NASA doing it themselves or a fraction of the cost of ULA, NASA has a very reliable and much cheaper medium launch vehicle launching much more frequently, and a heavy launcher pretty far in development.
This is great, turning “routine” space operations over to cheaper private companies, while focussing on research and stretching the envelope
Not with that attitude...and probably will be able to change that with the upcoming administration deregulating everything. Or did you mean won't instead of can't?
The challenging thing here is that NASA does have deep, systemic problems and is in need of some overhaul. SLS is a breathtakingly expensive boondoggle, lunar gateway has no reason to exist, Orion is underpowered and overweight, Mars Sample Return’s entire mission is in question, JWST was a decade behind schedule and an order of magnitude over budget, and the list goes on. Extreme risk-aversion and congressional meddling have resulted in a bureaucratic quagmire of an organization. It’s hard to find nasa projects that are going well.
Of course I don’t think a gorilla with a sledgehammer as we’re sadly going to see from Trump will make things any better, we need a surgeon with a scalpel.
Most of the things you listed are directly related to Congressionally mandated specifics for funding those programs. The money is only there if NASA does it the way Congress dictates, not necessarily the way it should be done.
The entire SLS program is essentially a Congressional jobs and legacy aerospace grifting program post-Shuttle.
If Congress would. Keep their hands off, and just allocate budget, most of the issues would likely disappear since the people that actually know what's going on could make the decisions instead of a Congress critter that is an imbecile.
It's the whole reason SLS is the train wreck it is. Congress wouldn't let them not keep shoveling money to the same people who made Space Shuttle parts. So instead of the best design possible, we got the best design using old parts.
The way I've heard it described is a lot of the NASA funding is intentionally spread out across many states, funding many jobs in those states, to get the support of many representatives to vote for the funding. This also means that trying to optimize costs would get a lot of push back, since it will cause jobs to be lost in many states. And these are states which voted for Trump: Alabama, Texas, Florida, etc.
Honestly I think lunar gateway is a decent idea, Its the easiest thing to do thats new as far as space is concerned and thus potentially the cheapest way to gain international co-operation, public interest, and potentially ignite another space race. Looking forward it can can potentially act as a life raft for any future lunar colonies in the event of a mishap. And while a moon colony isn't as impressive as a mars one its much safer to practice on given that emergency re-supply can actually get there before the crew are already skeletonized. A moon base itself can then act as support for moon based telescopes (which have significant advantages, and disadvantages of course) and if you can get some kind of manufacturing going its far easier to launch from the moon than it is from earth, even if the moon just ends up as a glorified space gas station.
Moon base on the surface is a great idea, I’m 1000% in favor.
Lunar gateway is in NRHO, which means rendezvous windows are a week apart. This makes it pretty useless for any kind of emergency. It’s in this crazy orbit because Orion is a pig that can’t transport a crew to low lunar orbit and back.
SLS should definitely be on the chopping block. It was a good idea to fund two possibilities for heavy lift rockets but SLS is clearly going nowhere. At this point, Bozo’s rocket seems like a better choice despite being so much farther behind in development.
But lunar gateway would be pretty useful if we really are going to establish a long term presence. It would allow:
having the lander and the transportation be different vehicles
keeping a backup lander convenient
having a secure place to store extra supplies until a base can be built
having a possible backup place for astronauts in case the lunar base has problems
Any sort of problem on lunar base would go bad real fast if the nearest help is two weeks away.
Having a place to park and transfer lets them not only use different vehicles for traveling and landing but also differently sized vehicles
…. But it’s only worthwhile if we’re establishing a long term presence
There are huge systemic problems which the "establishment" will demonstratably not address and Trump appears to be the answer to many voters... but him effectively addressing them is a wild fantasy.
We are about a decade plus into the current political theme of "throw the baby out with the bathwater". It's scary. These people have no plan. It's the levellers and the diggers all over again.
What sucks the most is NASA fights tooth and nail for funding as it is. Imagine gutting it, and then coming back 4 years later to ask just for their existing budgets back.
ESA is a pork barrel like NASA, Euro style. Airbus does great because it's now a traded company. ESA is simply an agency designed to maintain Europe's minor relevance in space. Ariane rockets are a decade behind Space X, 5 years behind china and ISRO.
Rocket Lab is where I lay my hopes. SpaceX without the giant douchebag. Innovation, incremental, sensible growth, without Billions behind.
President Musk is just there to be less inconvenienced and to revel in finding an easily manipulated orange loophole to being the president of the United States.
I guess that makes us all Musks workers now. What could go wrong?
What if these so-called efficiency measures actually help pave the way for the first civil outpost on Mars? I think I want to give people some benefit of the doubt, we can do better than what we have currently. Ideally, it’s realizing that there’s no such thing as scarcity in a boundless universe.
Make no mistake though, the Trump admin is giving grounds to fascism, and that’s a problem. Apologies if I sound unreasonably optimistic, I know a lot is happening which will ruin lives for many. No one should be okay with that.
There are still people who think humans can live on Mars, with today’s technology even?
The continuous radiation bombardment alone makes it virtually impossible, but the insane cold won’t help. Spending the rest of your life in cramped pods isn’t quite the psychological experience you would appreciate, and the low gravity is going to mush your muscles up. And there’s no way back, ever. So seeing mum and dad at christmas … fat chance. You might zoom them, with 20 minutes delay per direction. But Gen X billionaires that read too much shoddy scifi in their youth never think of those things.
Oh, and Elon promised us that Mars colony in 2021. There’s not even a starter kit on the surface yet.
What benefit does a civilian outpost on Mars give to our current society? We have effectively handled scarcity already. All scarcity that exists today is entirely manufactured by the owner class. We have the means to safely and effectively have infinite electricity, food, and housing. We choose not to. How would that change if we have a base on Mars?
I don’t think any of the resources you’ve mentioned can be handled for unlimited population growth on Earth.
Besides that, land is a limited resource on Earth for continued human population increase, so instead of asking people to limit reproduction, we’re better off looking for different planets to inhabit.
That said, Earth is the only known habitable planet we have, and it makes sense to protect it for both practical and cultural reasons. But future gens will benefit from space exploration, it doesn’t have to be either/or regardless of what anyone says.