Humanity will probably die out in the next hundred years and the planet will finally be able to recover, even if it has to start over from microbes to get there.
Daytime energy is soon going to be free in much of the world. The advances in green tech, especially solar and batteries, are real. Much faster progress than even the optimists were predicting a decade ago. The revolution is reaching a tipping point where it becomes self-sustaining and requires no state subsidies. I am not a tech utopian, and this alone will not save us. But there's no denying it's good news. It's all happening far too late but it does look like humans are going to kick their fossil habit after all.
Indeed. China is such a paradox. An absolute anathema in terms of culture and politics. It's almost impossible for us Westerners to grasp how a people could accept that level of authoritarianism, how they could value their personal freedom so little. And yet, and yet. Without China we would be royally screwed. They are pulling the weight of the green transition basically alone. So personally I've decided to hold off on China-bashing for now.
Yes, but, we depend on fossil fuels for far more than just energy. We still get most of our plastics from them, and most of our fertilizer, without which we can't feed most of the developed countries. And while renewables are great for stationary use, we still don't have anything with the energy density of fossil fuels for cars, shipping, air travel, and cargo. And, whether anyone thinks it's a good use or not, war is entirely, inefficiently, and intensely run on oil.
There are a lot of other issues entirely unrelated to power grid energy production we have to solve first, the most challenging being our own aggressive human nature. We're a long way from kicking the oil habit.
The energy density of batteries just keeps increasing, for cars at least it's now good enough. I agree completely about the rest but this was meant to be a happy thread! I agree with OP that we need to talk about good news too sometimes.
Optimistic of you to assume pricing is cost-plus not willingness-to-pay. US utilities (and their foreign counterparts) will only too gladly keep charging you
Is there a good place to ask about independent (non-grid-connected) solar for an otherwise grid-connected structure? I'd love to set something like this up, but can't find any systems which don't require wiring into the gird.
Why would you pass up on the free money of selling the power? You're probably looking for a hybrid system if you just want to keep the lights on during a service outage. Or I guess you can just build an off grid system and wire it to a generator transfer switch if you want to power your house circuits but only during an outage.
Most half decent solar installers can help either way.
I've set up an off grid solar system out of necessity. Used to be an electrician so I know a good bit (but not everything by any means). What are your questions I can maybe point you in the right direction.
Based on your initial question, it depends on local zoning. You can likely legally grid tie a set up and have a battery backup. I think if you want to be legal I'd go that route.
If you want I think you could set up a completely separate system in a more sneaky fashion that is completely isolated from the grid / your existing house circuitry. But when grid tying (including into your house circuitry) you have to be pretty safe because that power can go upstream and feed the grid or the house when workers think the power is off, which is obviously very dangerous and could get you in a lot of trouble if it went wrong.
I hope I live to see a modular, upgradable, repairable laptop with a ridiculously ludicrous battery life. (Without it being powered by some sort of highly volatile fusion core or something Lol)
People can talk shit on China from a geopolitical stance and I'll agree with them, but yeah, they picked up the slack where other countries were lacking when it came to green progression. Technically our (US) own fault too. Greed ruling over progression really fucked us.
Sure, but energy efficiency is always improving, distribution and storage are always improving. And the full electrification of transport (which is what you seem to be alluding to) is not going to happen overnight.
Thailand is set to legalise same sex marriage and Norway is set to ban ICE cars, both in 2025.
There's probably a lot of these small wins happening around the world. Let's keep an eye out for them so we don't lose all our hope for a better future.
Battery prices are collapsing and we are at an inflection point where electric vehicles will soon be more economical to purchase, drive and maintain for a much greater number of people. This is as inevitable as the phaseout of coal.
Oh it tipped a few years ago. It's just still being implemented. There may be less startup to ramping up fossil fuel plants still, but solar is cheaper to build and operate
Yeah, I was shopping for lithium on phosphatase leisure batteries maybe two years ago and was looking at spending over £1000 per battery. Now those batteries are not much over £100 and prices still seem to be falling.
I'd broaden that to a whole host of "green" and "alternative energy" sectors.
All the panic about Chinese "overproduction" of EVs and similar technologies is just China going whole hog on those industries. It's not an "overproduction" in the traditional sense, where a company produces more than the market will bear and has to sell excess inventory at a loss. China just produces all of this stuff cheaply and at a huge scale.
About 20 years ago the general perception was that EVs were a joke https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X2HX5wsQVEA
Now we have cost effective solar and wind, efficient battery storage, good and cheap EVs and drones, modern heat pumps etc.
I don't even think all the tariffs will matter in the long run. China is currently adopting all that stuff at a breakneck pace. Their production capacity won't just go away once they've saturated the domestic market and the growing number of countries that have trade agreements with China). At that point, Chinese manufacturers will have no choice but to start actually selling below cost, just so they can clear inventory.
And this has a snowball effect too. Energy is often the limiting factor in production. An abundance of cheap energy makes it cheaper to produce more cheap energy production.
Sodium ion batteries are also supposedly gearing up to be a solid li-ion alternative in the next 2-3 years. Not as energy dense yet but they're closing the gap.
I heard this as well and am sweating the anticipation. They make another breakthrough on density and it'll blow li-io out of the water, at least for on-site storage. Would be crazy to see backup diesel generators replaced by batteries.
There's too much money in renewables for rich people. The tariffs may or may not happen, but the renewable switch is a runaway train, and almost entirely in the country.
On the electricity futures market, wind producers regularly sell their power for negative prices (paying transmission companies to take their power) because it's so cheap for them to make, with such negligible overhead; since the government subsidies are based on the mWh they produce, they can sell it at a loss and still make money. But even if those subsidies go away, renewables can still easily undercut every other producer on the grid.
That's just one example. The same tipping point is approaching fast all over just about every industry. Obama and Biden got the renewable energy industry over the hump of research and infrastructure outlay, so now Tr*mp gets to take the credit for their work while it all falls into place; and because the rich people are benefiting from it financially, they're going to protect the industry.
Yeah, but that will be true for the electric cars made in the coming years, not the ones made in the past few years. People were right to be put off by the prices.
And even then, will these new cheap batteries be durable? I worry a lot about all these EVs becoming unusable in 10 years because the batteries are ruined, just like my 10 year old laptop
People who didn't lease will lose their shirts but the price of new cars is the primary driver for the price of used cars. New, cheap, and more useable EVs will make used ones cheap.
As to the reliability, it remains to be seen. Considering the size of a vehicle I think an aftermarket will pop up for refurbishing and replacing batteries like it has for the earliest modern EVs in the us, the leaf.
Holy shit awesome man! Even if it doesn't pan out don't lose hope! I got rejected on 3 different positions and thought I was just not the cut. 7 years later after landing the 4th and I'm a completely different person. NEVER give up! You and your future are worth it. I promise.
Thanks to COVID and speeding mRNA research we are at the cusp of curing many auto-immune diseases. I'm 47 with a kid with diabetes and another with celiac. I'm confident both will be cured in my lifetime
A Nintendo Hitman clone where you play as Luigi and have to take revenge on Bowser's cronies because they stopped Mario from getting treatment when he needed it.
Well, I was worried that I had forgotten the art of dating, but it seems that there will be another! I don't know how it will end up, but for now I'm happy!
People now about solar but I think most people don't know that the 21st century will become dominated by solar really fast. The growth will be exponential and in the coming decade we'll really see it happening at a ridiculous pace.
It'll also be really cheap and complemented by cheap storage. It always sounds like it's 50 years away but in reality electrification is coming in so fast and cheap where the developing world will leap frog fossil fuels.
If you're a homeowner you can almost certainly buy solar in a manner where the monthly financing will be similar to what you save in monthly electric bills. So it's a wash.
This year.
The difference is that electric bills will go up, while the financing terms stay the same.
Looked into this a few years ago and you could have said the same then. The problem was the deal with the financing had all these weird caveats when you looked into the details like you didn't own the panels, and any cost would transfer with the sale of the house, it was like a forever rental with no upgrades ever.
When we get to the point that you can get solar added, and own everything, and can pay for it without financing with a positive ROI in 3 years, that's the tipping point.
I'm projecting inflation adjusted prices of energy to go down in the coming years as well as financing costs. The energy market is stabilising with the Ukraine war and central bank rates are also going down right now. Outlook is pretty good economically right but Covid and Ukraine really threw a wrench into the works and fucked up 4 years so far
All those early access games I bought will get updates in 2025.
I'm now on a Early Access conveyor belt. Every few months, something I've been waiting for gets a new update. I got like 10 games that I rotate between, with new ones being added and old ones getting dropped off.
You may not be getting many upvotes but I feel you man. I had one come along for me recently and it was pure bliss. Was so great I bought a copy at full retail for my kid just to make sure I was additionally supporting them (and they wanted it but that's a bonus lol)
The corporate real estate market is going to tank, people are going to turn their empty office building caused by everyone working from home into apartments, and rental prices are going to crash because of how desperate the corps are to bring in any money. Once rental market tanks, housing market tanks, and all those massive investment firms buying up neighborhoods are going to see their investment shrink like a cold Wang doodle. Expect crying ceo's and a massive government bailout in the next 4-7 yes for this exact scenario.
I know turning office buildings into apartments seems like a fantastic idea on the surface but there are a LOT of reasons this doesnt work, ranging from fire code issues, utility service locations and access and HVAC design. Sorry.
I think russia is going down hard (20 jan being their sole hope to salvage their kleptocracy) and with it the evil influence in many parts of the world => good news.
I would recommend if you wish to sit down and read the book, it reads like a mad mans manifesto on how to take over europe and china but putin is using it as a playbook. It's available on the internet archive in english to read. Everything over the past few years is going to their plan, and the instability of civility in the USA is apart of that. killing CEO's and people being pushed to brink of using violence to send their message or push progress forward, bringing a domino effect of the US goverment under donlad trump revolting and causing a 2nd civil war. Eurpoe should not rely on the US for defence, and should focus on their own.
Hate to break it to you, but short of something sudden like our sun exploding, getting directly hit by a cosmic ray or giant asteroid, it's incredibly unlikely.
We have reached a technological point where we could save ourselves from our own extinction, caused by us or not. It'll almost certainly be a tiny fraction of today's population though, but enough will survive to avoid extinction
The Yellowstone Caldera erupting would probably do it, too. Also, a sufficiently big meteor, a rogue planet, or black hole. All would are beyond our current level of technology to survive or avoid. Or a local supernova, although there are no known likely candidates so that one is less likely.
That technology requires massive manufacturing capacity that requires civilization. When water and food become scarce from a changed climate, there goes that.
We won't go extinct for a time, agreed. We'll cling to our hardened structures and aging tech for as long as we can.
But humans thrived on easy mode. In a climate we evolved to thrive in. Without that, we'll become subject to nature's whims once again.
This is precisely why "we're going to colonize Mars" is a hilarious pipedream. We couldn't make a practically infinitely forgiving environment that automatically recycled our waste, water, and air work. We stressed it as hard as we could for as long as we could until it started pushing back, yet we only increased our attack.
A few peak humans growing potatoes on mars is a cute "yay humanity" moment. But you've met us. A colony of hundreds, or thousands, some born into what would inevitably be a highly class segregated system that demands their servitude, given the private profit egotists now in charge of such things, where anyone making a mistake or having had enough easily leading to boom everybody dead try again? Yeah, that'll go swell.