I mean there are Ukrainian people living there right now. According to the argumentation in the past this area basically belongs to Ukraine now. They could make a referendum about this topic 🤔
Some Tankie argued with me about that because he told me to find a quote from Putin where he literally said that. Like, does that matter? That was the general Russian sentiment.
I don't think Putin publicly said it to br fair. It's something that was said by Russian propagandists and there was a leaked FSB report claiming that Putin also believed it.
Clearly things are not going according to plan for Russia though, regardless of they thought it'd take three days or three months. Their actions in the initial hours and days of the war also seemed to indicate they were aiming for a quick decapitation.
Ukraine should immediately and publicly offer peace terms with Russia:
Both countries reset to *1991 borders. Each nation immediately leaves others' territory
Return any captured Ukrainian men, women, and children
Russian reparations for people, land, equipment destroyed or stolen
Kremlin leaders responsible for invasion to face an international tribunal
This would show that Ukraine is reasonable but still allowed to defend itself. But more importantly, it would shut up the boot-licking tankies who muddy the waters and falsely claim that bOtH SiDeS are invading each other...
They will never ever return those children. And if they somehow did, a lot of them were so young that they won't recognize their real parents. The magnitude of that crime is absolutely staggering.
Oh shit, they've actually captured the area and are holding it? That's pretty significant! If they can keep this up, then maybe they can force Russia to concede? ...Though any russian deal to end the war obviously won't be honoured, which does make it a bit of a conundrum. Still, this is a good thing.
Russia's border defense turned out to be mostly conscripts who got the fuck out of the way and/or surrendered the minute the fighting got remotely serious. And behind them is a whole lot of nothing until they hit the secondary lines which are, one would assume, a little more solid and based on natural obstacles like rivers and cities.
The contract soldiers are better, but they're also on the frontline.
Last I checked it looked like they had breached some major lines of defence, which means they may be past the worst of minefields etc. If they have room to manoeuvre for real by the time the russians send more forces the russians are going to have a real bad time trying to respond to this.
I strongly believe that Russia is preparing a more serious response. They just were not prepared for this, so didn't have defenses in place. Better to retreat and cede some territory than wasting troops in a losing battle. Since their land is so large, they can still come back later and reconquer.
Also, Ukraine can't use that many troops to actually fortify the region, given that they are also under heavy pressure at the more southern fronts.
And, 130 square miles is tiny compared to all the territory that Russia got so far.
Well, I believe the biggest win about this is for morale. Russians get scared because the war is now in their country, and Ukrainians get a buffer zone.
Yeah, I assume this is a dual purpose morale booster and demoralizerm Ukraine shows that Russias defenses are a paper tiger because they relied on threats and it will force Russia to respond with troops, either by pulling from the front lines or reinforcements. Either way it moves the fighting to Russian land and that will demoralize support in Russia.
Plus they can disrupt more supply lines and war manufacturing locations by going around the border defenses. They don't even need to hold ground, just be a thorn in Russia's side.
Also, Putin may need to divert resources from Ukraine and halt advances there earlier than intended.
Of course, if Putin drops a tactical nuke inside of Russia's internationally-recognized boarders, will the world care? And if so, how much? Could backfire on Ukraine a bit in the short-term.
Am area the size of Philly. Whew that's gonna worry Russia.
IIRC it's to smash the gas pipelines. If they want to actually hold this they're gonna have a hard time. Maybe they can turn it into a flanking move or something, otherwise it has the makings of a "high water mark" moment like Gettysburg.
It's to make Russia either destroy the facilities in order to dislodge the UAF and retake the area or show weakness and allow the capture to stand for a period.
Surprise move by Ukraine! Watch Russia nuke their own territory to be able to use a nuke to look strong, dangerous and unpredictable and not get in trouble for it.
They've been telling people they'll nuke anyone that crosses their border that nothing happening now is a letdown. It's like discovering the gang of bikers all have rub on tattoos.
I don't know how far away from the border the fighters take off from. I also don't know how altitude plays into the whole combat and range thing. For all I know, they take off 300 miles away from the border, cruise at 30k feet, fly lower, drop some bombs, fly back up at 30k and head another 300 miles back.
I don't actually know if 600 miles is a long distance for an F-16 but it is a small plane.
I also don't know how big Ukraine is thinking about it.
don't use nukes don't use nukes don't use nukes don't use nukes don't use nukes don't use nukes don't use nukes don't use nukes don't use nukes don't use nukes don't use nukes don't use nukes
Their nukes probably aren't even operational. They weren't maintaining their other equipment, so odds are they aren't maintaining the nukes, which if they use they already lost, so are effectively worthless except as a threat.
Assuming their nukes work, they can't nuke Ukraine. The reason why nukes aren't used is because the damage is uncontrollable. The fallout would effect large portions of Russia too. Think about how much the Chernobyl event effected Russia, and it wasn't a weapon. If Ukraine is nuked then they damage themselves as well as all surrounding nations, which would bring NATO into the fight. If they can't beat Ukraine they sure as hell don't stand a chance against NATO.
Basically, the nuke threat is a bluff. Stop worrying about it and stop spreading their propaganda. Spreading fear of nukes is spreading Russia's message. Please use your brain and stop fearing it. It's not worth considering.
Don't get cocky, everyone. Remember nuclear warfare has been flirted with.
I don't think there's much that can be done for Russia using nuclear missiles on their own territory and that would be why Ukraine's in an area of value, protecting them from that happening. They won't be controlling territory much larger while an Su-35 with a nuclear loadout is waiting for them to stray enough kilometres away from the critical infrastructure.
Consider it a siege attempt on resource, not a counter attack for territory.
Edit: Holy shit. I'm clearly referring to the tactical nukes. How did y'all forget that, gloss over the rest of the comment, and go straight to silo level atomic bombs decimating the region and spreading fallout across EU? Fucking hell, this place some times...
I believe, and my memory in this is a little hazy, that Poland already said they'd trigger article 5 if they got screwed with radiation so I suppose the answer to your question is either
Their nukes probably aren't even operational. They weren't maintaining their other equipment, so odds are they aren't maintaining the nukes, which if they use they already lost, so are effectively worthless except as a threat.
Assuming their nukes work, they can't nuke Ukraine. The reason why nukes aren't used is because the damage is uncontrollable. The fallout would effect large portions of Russia too. Think about how much the Chernobyl event effected Russia, and it wasn't a weapon. If Ukraine is nuked then they damage themselves as well as all surrounding nations, which would bring NATO into the fight. If they can't beat Ukraine they sure as hell don't stand a chance against NATO.
Basically, the nuke threat is a bluff. Stop worrying about it and stop spreading their propaganda. Spreading fear of nukes is spreading Russia's message. Please use your brain and stop fearing it. It's not worth considering.