FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker shows Joe Biden has a 53 percent chance of winning the election, while Trump has a 46 percent chance.
Polls are crap
It’s a little bit notable how they change over time, but mostly it is just a bunch of poor methodology noise
But, I do feel it’s relevant to point out that even in polling land Biden has been gaining for the last few weeks and it’s notable which media outlets are pretending it is the opposite of that (like severely the opposite) and to wonder why that is
Even if your presidential vote does not matter, you also vote for down ballot candidates. They are the ones that have the biggest influence on your life. Your state senator can write laws to protect you or harm you. Your town's sheriff gets to decide if your local police officer should be fired and who should be hired instead.
I live in a mostly Republican district that will inevitably vote Trump, I am still voting against Trump no matter what, regardless of what any polling says. American democracy as we know it ends if Trump wins
There's a fair possibility that lots of "mostly republican" districts are relying on voter apathy to stay mostly republican. Good on ya for doing your part!
Yup, only one thing affects his chances of winning, and that's voters in swing states. If all the ones that don't like him vote for Biden, he'll lose easily. If they don't, he has a good chance to win.
Everyone that stays home or votes for Trump because Biden is too old, will be complicit in the ending of American Democracy and the deaths of thousands. Don't think it can't happen.
Polls currently have it closer than it's been in a while. Biden might not win there, but more competitive battlegrounds means more voters, and more voters is good for democracy.
Lots of people are tired of culture war bullshit. Not the diehards, but the moderates. All they see are library book bans while their home insurance prices going up 5x.
Obviously the only poll that matters is the actual election, and that's months away, and anything can happen, and everyone needs to do their part no matter what.
That said, I would expect Trump's numbers to slide a bit from time to time as we get closer to the election. The closer we get to November, the more we'll see independent and apathetic voters start to pay a little bit of attention, and there is just so much not to like with Trump. The MAGA-dominated GOP is incredibly myopic about how their views will be seen by the average American living outside the right wing echo chamber.
And as much as it would help them, I don't think Republicans will be able to pretend to be moderate or sensible, even for the sake of the election. There is a perverse incentive to be as extreme as possible in order to gain support from other extremists and win influence on the right, but that behavior drags the party as a whole down when it is seen by anyone who isn't already part of the base. For example, MTG gets national support and tons of media attention despite being a representative for a little rural district that no one gives a fuck about, all because she is a loud and controversial extremist. Anyone who moderates their tone or stops themselves from saying the quiet part out loud will lose influence to those who proudly proclaim their awfulness.
None of this is to say that victory is assured. Hell, I'm not even saying it's likely (nor am I saying that it's unlikely). I'm just saying that I think that there's good reason to expect Trump's poll numbers to dip from time to time.
At the start of the year, I gave 95% odds that Trump would lose the election. So far, the biggest shake up has been the assassination attempt which didn't give him a boost in the polls. I think the polls showing Biden losing are flawed because those showing him doing so more than the margin of error have 18 to 20-somethings voting more for Trump. However, I also believe that the way the polls change can inform us about changes to the political climate. (Systematic sampling bias should still show changes that have a global effect in the intended dataset.)
Furthermore, Biden already won against Trump before Jan 6, which showed every single warning about him was true. Right now, our biggest threat is complicity and voter suppression. Register to vote, encourage other people to register to vote, call everyone online who tells you not to vote for Joe Biden a Russian Bot, and everyone in meat space whatever name will hurt them the most (traitor is a good one, fascist is another.) Register, organize, encourage, show up. Vote early if you can. I have arrangements with people in my area who are able to taxi people to their polling place for free; consider doing the same.
Polls for a close race are never going to be great. That’s just how statistics works.
America is fairly split down the middle nationally, and winning or losing can come down to who gets people to turnout on election night in a couple purple states.
Even with Clinton V Trump, the polls were not wrong. They showed a close race, and 538 literally said that it was a 4 sided die roll with Trump on a side.
Honestly, casinos have a reason to try to get it right. When pollsters get it wrong nothing really happens. I more or less agree with the logic of just looking at the casino odds as as much of a thing to trust as anything else.
Also, it’s apparently illegal to bet on the presidential election in the US, which I didn’t know.
Donald Trump's chances of winning the November 2024 presidential election are declining, according to a new aggregation of polls.
It comes after a Presidential Voting Intention poll of 3,601 swing state voters by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, found that Trump's margins over President Joe Biden have narrowed since June in two key swing states: Florida and North Carolina.
In a post on their website, FiveThirtyEight said their latest predictions can be explained by the flurry of swing-state polls that show Biden is encroaching upon Trump's lead.
In the week before the shooting, national polls had Trump as the favorite to win the White House, leading narrowly in the six key battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
An ABC News/Ipsos/Washington Post poll released Thursday found Biden and Trump are tied among registered voters.
Biden's fitness for office has been called into question since his shaky debate performance against Trump in June in which he muddled his words and appeared to lose his train of thought.
The original article contains 683 words, the summary contains 168 words. Saved 75%. I'm a bot and I'm open source!
With all the propagandists on higher alert and posting fervently- I suppose it’s a bit of a relief to see that even though the polls can’t be believed, that don’t ALL show the same bullshit attempts to cash in on clicks regardless of the damage.
They don't though, they only care that the money bet equals the money paid out minus the house cut (juice). When the line changes, it's not because the casinos believe one side has a better chance. It's because the money being bet on one side is uneven. Unlike their customers, casinos don't like gambling their money.
You’re betting with the casino here, not directly with other users. When you bet with the casino about who will win the election, the casino’s “house cut” is baked into the non reciprocal nature of the odds on the two sides (plus whatever fees). If they have the odds wrong enough, then their expected value can go negative. As you said, they don’t gamble, so they do their damnedest to make sure that doesn’t happen.