A recent poll shows Jill Stein's appearance on the ballot might be hurting Republicans more than Democrats, a reversal from 2016.
A new poll suggests that Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein is drawing more voters from former President Donald Trump than from Vice President Kamala Harris.
According to a Noble Predictive Insights survey released last week, Harris holds a narrow lead over Trump in a hypothetical three-way race. With Stein on the ballot, Harris' lead expands, pointing to a potential spoiler effect similar to what many Democrats blamed Stein for doing to Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election.
For Trump, the emergence of Stein as a potential spoiler may be a critical factor in battleground states, where even a small shift in votes could determine the outcome. For Harris, Stein's candidacy could paradoxically provide an unexpected advantage, drawing votes from Trump and narrowing his pathway to victory.
Without looking at any statistics or polling, I think the spoiler effect is not as prominent and is over stated for one reason.
If I'm going out of my way to not vote for the Democrats or Republicans and voting third party that would mean that I dislike my options so much that I'm giving a fuck you to the two party system.
What people can gather from this is if you said there was only two options I would just sit out and therefore it wasn't going to affect either candidate regardless.
I'm open to be convinced otherwise but I think candidates blaming spoilers should look at the electoral college and themselves when every 4 years they are ready to blame single digit candidates for their losses.
It sounds like your interpretation of the spoiler effect centers on people voting third party due to dissatisfaction with the 2 unfortunately omnipresent parties, which would be the same as not voting. Have you considered that some people who were going to vote no matter what might vote for a third party candidate because their listed policies actually resonate with them?
Democrats will still blame Stein if they lose, and even though their explicit strategy is to pick off disaffected Republicans, they'll never blame Chase Oliver. It's just like in 2016, when Hillary used the exact same strategy, and they blamed Stein, even though Gary Johnson took home a much higher percentage of the vote in most swing states. They don't care about spoiler candidates; they just want to punch left, especially when they need a scapegoat for a loss.
This. As long as they have a base big and dumb enough to buy any and every excuse to go further right (and blame progressives for it), they'll keep doing it.
Do you think all of those people who have been saying that third-party voters are going to destroy the US will be apologizing in the comment section here?
Regardless of outcome, you're playing with fire in our current voting system. Even if a few states did actually elect a third party, you could see no candidate reach 270 electoral votes and then it goes to the even more arcane vote done in the house of representatives (which each state gets a vote)
A very blue district in Hawaii sent a Republican (Charles Djou) to Washington in a special election with less than half the vote, because the two Democrats in the race refused to back down. If there were a ranked choice or other voting system than "plurality takes all", he wouldn't have won
Alright I'll bite. I don't understand this. The word liberal has two meanings: the classical and the colloquial. The latter is indistinguishable from leftist, so I assume you are using the classical form.
Classical liberals will still blame leftists, like ... blue maga wants them to? Who exactly is blue maga? Jill Stein supporters?
Classical liberals also span the left-right spectrum right now, with many identifying as libertarian. I struggle to see what you are getting at regardless of who blue maga represents, but maybe there is a good point here.
No it's not indistinguishable from the left, as issues like this show very clearly. That's just a fiction you're taught by liberals to fool you into thinking they're on your side.
Words can have different colloquial meanings. There is a really crass meaning of liberal that would identify Marx as a liberal, yes, and this is the most popular one in America, but there's another colloquial meaning (more popular in other anglophone countries, but gaining traction in America) where liberals are basically centrists (in capitalist societies) who might pretend to be progressive but are ultimately moderates to their bones. This came from the proclivities of "Liberal" parties, along with centrists understandably claiming the name of whatever the ruling ideology is, and here it is of course liberalism.
Among leftist circles, "liberal" is sort of an unmarked term for the moderate definition and the Lockean definition both, like how "guys" can refer to both a group of males and a group of mixed gender, despite "gals" only referring specifically to a group of females (I'm using those terms because they apply to children also, not just men/women).
So the comment is saying, in translation: "Democrat aligned people will still blame socialists (etc.) like their Democrat ideological cult wants them to." Does that make sense?
I won't believe a single poll until this election is over. There is so much incentive for misinformation out there it is unbearable. Just get out and vote.
I'm struggling really hard to see which voter is on the fence between Trump and Stein. Wouldn't it be more likely to be on the fence between Stein and Harris, or Stein and the couch?
Not as many people hate Harris specifically as hated Hillary, but a lot of people (for good and bad reasons) hate the Dems and also Kamala to some extent.
I think Trump draws a lot of broad support from his 'anti-establishment' rhetoric so it kinda makes sense for folks to look to other anti-establishment candidates as an alternative to him. There's a tendency to look down upon Trump voters as only right wingers, conspiracists etc and not really understand that a lot of his support is superficial and based on limited information.
In a way it's not so much that Stein or other left candidates are spoilers for the establishment Dems but more the case that figures like Trump are spoilers for progressive alternatives to the establishment.
Little known fact. The .ml server is run out of an old Soviet bunker in Leningrad, powered entirely by burning copies of the Victims of Communism leaflets in a converted T-34.
This has to be bait. You can't possibly think people think that way, right? .ml people disagree with NATO-sphere liberals about a lot of things to do with Russia, but that's not the same as being mindless Russian chauvinists.
Like, do you really think whatever meetings she had with Putin or whatever it is you blue rags gossip about would be a bigger factor than her opposing the genocide in Gaza, to say nothing of having better climate policies, better immigration policies, and so on?
"But she won't win"
Obviously, but her shaking Putin's hand won't change that. His apparent trick of buying a miniscule number of highly-targeted Facebook ads isn't gonna do much for her, so we need to accept that assumption either way.
Green party is the most progressive party that has access to 400+ electoral votes. Anyone that wants to participate in the farce would want to vote for them. And Dr Stein pisses off right wingers like no one else, which is a plus.
Always make both parties worried: threaten to vote for a third party to keep the main party on its toes. But vote for the main party on the actual day. This isn't a time for idealism.
A threat that you refuse to make good on is the same as doing nothing. I have no interest in telling someone who to vote for, but your proposed strategy is ridiculous.
You're allowed to do whatever you want, I just want you to understand that you're choosing to literally do nothing 🤷♂️ you're not making a stand, you're not sending a message, and you're not enacting change. You're voting for Donald Trump while making yourself feel like you're fighting an ideological battle.
Democracy enjoyers understand that this version of democracy doesn't care about third parties 🤷♂️ vote for the lesser evil and campaign locally for vote reform