Harris stretches lead over Trump in what could be significant increase

Only if people are allowed to vote when they show up

I'm in a red state. I'm in a neighborhood with a lot of of retired Republicans. I don't see a single Trump sign, but there is a growing count of Harris signs, including "Republicans for Harris." ymmv

In TX, Theodore "I left my dog snowflake at home while the state was freezing and without power for a family trip to Cancun then blamed my wife and children for the trip" Cruz is currently up for defeat.

He only just barely won against Beto O'rourke last time. Colin Allred is closing in and needs all the help he can get.

I think she'll be busy enough with one job

Followed by a jail sentence!

the gop has made inroads on the young white dude demographic, largely because of incels. Its more of a tossup for that reason and the electoral college (which lets all agree needs some kind of proportional rank choice fix, or to be dropped entirely for popular vote)

Many of the keys are subject to arbitrary interpretation; Nate Silver criticized his process and arguably has a better probability model with more consistent accuracy across thousands of races somewhere around 90%. Key 2 was given to Biden despite the writing on the wall that 2/3 of Democrats wanted a contest both before and after the primaries. Key 3 Incumbency these days is more of a liability with both candidates distancing themselves. Key 9 Scandals have lost a lot of meaning in the Trump era.

Should be noted that he gave a full-throated endorsement of Hillary Clinton... only to predict she'd lose. The thing is, he had originally referenced in two different publications ahead of that prediction that she would specifically lose the popular vote. She didn't. He then changed his model.

Also I'm not a fan of this guy because he belittled with insults those who called for Biden to step down... Despite not giving a prediction on Biden at the time.

I saw an interview with him and he gives off quack vibes to me. 🤷🏼‍♀️

Polls use scientific methods too, that doesn't mean they aren't wildly incorrect from time to time.

a scientific method for his predictions

🙁

Oh yeah? But would Ozzy Osbourne put Trump's family members in positions of power, funnel as much booty - I mean national wealth as imaginable into Trump's personal pockets and benefit Trump's corrupt cronies? Sorry, I mean make America great again?

Yes

Unfortunately, politics is teams sports in this country. Too many people are concerned with their side winning rather than what is best for the country or even for themselves. The propaganda machine has pushed people to support a small subset of issues as the biggest issues and these are often not the issues that actually have any impact on the day-to-day lives of most Americans. Critical thinking is not part of the discourse anymore for a large percentage, just rhetoric and slogans.

As an American, this scares me.

I try to share this site when national pole articles come out, because these are the only numbers that matter in our election. It doesn't matter how blue California is if they rat-fuck the elections in the swing states.

Trumps pov is easy to understand, and so he’s easy to buy. You only need to stroke Trumps ego and speak his language and he’s on your side. That’s why Republican politicians think they can control him, except he’s too neurotic and unstable, likely because of narcissism made worse by dementia.

No one really votes for Republicans, that’s why they have to gerrymander and keep the electoral college alive. There’s like maybe 35%-37% of the American pop. which really supports their pov. The swing states are only ever an issue because of voter disenfranchisement, not because people actually swing. Very few people actually swing vote.

So they believe that Democrats automatically means higher taxes for them, regardless of income level.

Should you manage to get them to consider the taxation would only target the wealthy, they are afraid the wealthy class will fire them due to the loss of money. Similarly afraid that stronger worker protections would just lead to the jobs going away. They think the benefits achieved by Democrats favor cities and rural areas don't see their moneys worth. Now they didn't spend that much money on taxes and they do get great benefit, but they see the cities get bigger stuff and that leaves an impression.

Speaking of jobs going away, they fear immigrants. Both on racist grounds and the general perceived increase in labor competition.

Fewer arms to Ukraine because they see it as wasting money on a cause that has nothing to do with them. More arms to Israel because they are afraid of Muslims.

Particularly dangerous as key people recognize this is a lot of people, but not the majority. So there's a great fear that democratic voting means they would ultimately be marginalized. So they also are the party most inclined to game the vote however they can, mapping districts, limiting voting access, stalling absentee ballots.

He is similar to popular non-Americans like Berlusconi, Meloni, Le Pen, and Kickl. Americans aren't unique in that regard.

builds amasses grows

Yes I see, I still find it weird to call it "stretches".
The synonyms "Ben Hur Horse Race" mention would of course be better.

I never heard it, and it still sounds stupid IMO.