I don't think Microsoft (or Apple) want people to have personal computers anymore in the way that PCs have historically existed. That is to say, they don't want your computer capable of running arbitrary code of your choosing. They don't want your computer to have the potential to do everything, to run everything, to make anything.
They want to control and lock down all aspects of your machine and what it can do, retain ownership of hardware via software licenses, and monetize every click and keystroke.
Microsoft doesn't want you to have a functional computer anymore, they want you to have a dummy terminal that runs Office 365 and Copilot.
They want PCs that work like smartphones, with apps completely self contained and unmodifiable, where the OS is a black box that no one but them can see in to.
Smartphones are actually a good window into what computers in general would have been like had the IBM bios not been reverse engineered and survived a bunch of legal challenges.
I think if it was up to them, and latency was low enough, they probably would have pushed some kind of "fully remote convertible laptop" where they literally own everything you do in a cloud, I don't even want to search if this is a thing that exist already
We've been most of the way their for a long while with thin clients. They have just enough computational capacity to connect to someone else infrastructure. Its also how schools use Chromebooks for the most part too
Now that we don’t have to pay for any of the infrastructure, it turns out that mainframes and timesharing is awesome. Can we go back to that please? - Silicon Valley, 2024
They are dividing users into two groups. Unintelligent users who run Windows or MacOS in an extremely controlled limited way with AI assisting and monitoring everything remotely and reporting it back to the mothership...
Or people who are above an IQ of 85 and willing to learn to use Linux.
How much of this is decline at the expense of Windows 11, due to Steam lowering barriers to entry, fatigue with Windows' hard selling, and/or extending the useful like of hardware that W11 abandoned.
Copilot / Recall was the last straw for me. My only relationship with Microsoft for the last 10 years has been, "how much more of Microsoft's sh*t am I willing to put up with?"
I 100% put money on the fact that linuxes surge in popularity and usability is 100% because Valve, a multi-billion dollar company, stepped in and started dragging it forward in ways that the fractuous nature of the community never could.
Windows 11 being a spytastic invasive dogpile was just extra fuel on the fire.
Little bit of everything I think. I personally have been getting tired of Microsoft pulling their shit, but without Valve making compatibility so simple for their launcher it would make it a much harder sell.
The fuckery Microsoft has been doing with trying to outright trick people into signing in to the OS with a Microsoft account and using things like OneDrive combined with just how good Proton has gotten pushed me to make the switch full time a year or so ago for my personal usage.
I switched over to Fedora a number of months ago and switched to plasma a few weeks ago. 0 complaints on any game I’ve played between halo, cyber punk, doom, and forza.
It's cool and all, but I'm surprised it's not 10% at this point. Microsoft is shitting in their customers mouth and Apple is a luxury brand at this point.
Institutuonals like governments and businesses do embrace Linux, too, and I don't find many regular users running Linux on their machine for anything but IT work
I don’t have any hard numbers, only what I have seen out in the world. But a good number of POS systems, embedded things like MRI machines, tire balancers in mechanics shops and ATMs run some flavor of embedded Windows.
It is not nearly as huge as *nix is, but it is not exactly uncommon either.
Linux founder Linus Torvalds, for example, has suggested that a lack of a standardized desktop that goes across all Linux distros has held back Linux adoption on desktop.
Yeah. Well, in on Linux in large part because of the diversity, choice, and options. If I wanted a monolithic, incestuous lock-in culture, I'd be on Windows, or a Mac.
Linux may have been simply making an observation, not a judgment, but fuck monocultures.
I'm thinking this comes from the consideration of taking imagery at the root of people's brains when they hear Linux. Reiterating elements of the Windows or Mac UI over the decades, even if they had small visual changes, enable a significantly large population of the world to imagine the desktop even just while mentioned in a passing. Anyone that doesn't use either of these OSes at least can have a basic imagery popping up about it due to constant advertising of the desktop via direct ads, support pages, tech websites using generic desktop images, screen shares, etc.
Linux is wild west in this regard. Everyone knows how Windows or MacOS looks like thanks to their abundant copies of descriptive bounty posters, but only other Linux users are familiar with other Linux desktops and that is usually as the names of fellow bounty hunters.
Yeah. When I think of Linux, I think of the terminal. It's the only constant over the years.
My septagenarian father thinks Linux looks like Linux Mint, because that's what I first set up for him, and that's what I walked him through installing on a new computer.
Just a reminder to take the data in that site with a grain of salt. I used to share them a lot, but then decided to read more about their methodology, and turns out it's mostly a black box, so they may be subject to several kinds of biases, and we can't even know. For example, we don't know which sites use their analytics and if there's a geographical bias. We also don't know how their scripts work and how the data is collected from devices. It would be nice if we had more sources of marketshare data to compare
How much of this is regular people just not buying new computers anymore?
A lot of households that used to have had a laptop for each person have replaced those devices with phones and tablets. They weren't using Linux, so by removing them Linux market share would go up even if it hasn't actually grown.
I think the argument is that as less people have desktops and laptops, the only people left will be more technical (otherwise they'd just use a phone or tablet). The more technical people are also likely to use Linux. So as non-technical people move to tablets and phones, technical people make up a larger share of laptop/desktop users.
Music and graphic art software is the only advantage I can find for MacOS over Linux at this point. I love the Apple silicon but I don't see that being a long term advantage.
Stability and UI/UX are still lightyears ahead in Mac, and to some extent Windows. Don't get me wrong, they suck for lots of reasons, but I think Linux has a lot of catching up to do to be as usable as Mac/Windows for the ordinary user.
I think standardizing package formats, and more mature desktop managers and proprietary drivers will go a long way to fixing that though.
People find Windows easier to use because they are used to the quirks. Of course you shouldn't let a beginner try Arch, but there are plenty of beginner friendly distros. The complications often come from installing Linux in the first place but the average user will have just as much trouble installing Windows.
I struggle to do the same things on the Mac that are trivial in Windows and Linux.
For example, I gave up on Homebrew because it was difficult to install. For one thing, it required me to set up an Apple developer account on my version of MacOS
I don't use my girlfriend's Mac book because the OS is not as intuitive, like I found out recently you have to drag the icon in to install things. Who comes up with this shit?
High DPI screen support in Linux is still troublesome, especially between multiple screens with different DPI/resolution, especially between GTK and Qt programs.
And I haven't played around with Asahi yet, but it'll be hard to top the built-in power/suspend/hibernate/resume behavior and its effect on battery life (especially in being able to just count on it to work if you suspend for days, where it seamlessly switches to hibernate and starts back up very quickly). But on my old Intel MacBook, the battery life difference between MacOS and and Linux is probably two to one. Some of it is Apple's fault for refusing to document certain firmware/hardware features, but the experience is the experience.
Honestly for art I’ve started using my iPad for it, and transferring the results onto my Mint install. Since mint or gnome (not sure which one) integrates Apple file sharing into the files app.
I'm by no means a musician, let alone a professional one, but this part does admittedly suck. The actual sound backend works phenomenally well, especially when combining Pipewire and JACK for audio production, however using Windows-native VST/VST3 plugins is a horrible experience. A lot of mine are either really laggy, or just don't load properly at all
Linux people generally use adblockers so I somewhat doubt all these analytics websites that don't have a methodology that wouldn't be blocked by adblockers listed
Technically, yes. Practically, it's complicated. It doesn't really exist within the same ecosystem as other Linux distros.
It's not as different as Android (which is also technically a Linux distribution), but running a normal DE and all the programs that come with it is very clearly still an advanced user thing locked behind knowledge of how bash and virtual environments work.