100% Chance
100% Chance
Link to the original article:
Economists have predicted 20 of the last 5 recessions...
Economics is great at explaining why something happened or what may happen in the future but complete shit at predicting when something will happen.
For a decade in the run up to the 2008 housing crash everyone was saying it was just around the corner but they were wrong for 9 of the 10 years.
If every year you predict the world will end or the market will crash, eventually you will be correct...
Right, but if you're watching someone blow up a balloon, you know eventually it will pop even if you don't know exactly when. That doesn't mean you're wrong to suggest we should stop inflating the balloon to avoid the pop.
If you just say the market will crash, maybe it will or maybe it won't. If you say that the conditions exist for a crash, and describe them accurately, you're right whether there is a crash or not.
And if you say there's 100% chance, not only are you likely to be wrong, you're also a useless moron deserving of ridicule.
if you’re watching someone blow up a balloon, you know eventually it will pop even if you don’t know exactly when.
There are two problems with this.
1: When a lot of people are making money by inflating the balloon, telling them to stop is not going to work well.
2: If the ballon ends up taking 20 breaths to pop and you are telling them to stop every time they blow in the ballon and it doesn't for the first 19 times, they tend to think you are the boy who cried wolf and just keep on ignoring you.
Economics is great at coming up with plausible sounding stories about why things happened, but that doesn't mean those explanations are correct. The fact that the same theories lead to incorrect predictions is a strong indicator that the explanations are wrong, too.
Or to put it more bluntly, most of the field of economics looks a lot like a pseudoscience.
I may have been early but I'm not wrong
Hey that's not fair I'm a circus clown now
A broken clock is right two times a day.
Now that analog blocks are rare, is this even valid anymore?
They couldn’t resist adding “in blow to Biden”
Stupid fucks.
I guess biden got that blow after all
You're thinking of Clinton.
Doesn't economic situation affect presidential popularity in the US a lot?
Yes, which is why the Republicans use their time bomb strategy. While they're in power, they pass something where critical parts of it expire in some number of years, which will line up with Democrats in power, then let it expire. The uninformed voters will fall for it every time.
Sort of. It may be more perception of the economy rather than the reality. There was a lot of "economically stressed" people who voted for Trump in 2016, even though all the data suggests they were not stressed, and the US economy overall was fine.
A year ago, there was data that suggested you could go either way. It was easy to come up with arguments for or against a looming recession, and you didn't have to cherry pick that hard. People seemed to expect there was going to be a recession, but it kept not happening.
Most indicators now suggest the economy is mostly fine. Inflation still needs to come down. GDP is up. Unemployment is at historic lows. But people are still expecting things to be bad.
Unfortunately, yeah. While there are so many economic factors that are out of the president's control, "the economy" as a whole is always, always used by republicans as a cudgel against any sitting Dem president if there's any amount of decline (and when it's growing, they look for any other issue to yell about). Uninformed or stupid voters invariably believe that the head of state is solely responsible for everything.
These fucks want a recession SO BADLY and it's just NOT HAPPENING. I love it. Go get em, Powell.
Cause they get rich during a recession by buying things on the cheap because the over-leveraged middle class suddenly can't afford things and have to discard them to remain solvent. They sell off the extra car or dump their shares for cash to make ends meet.
How do you induce a recession/downturn? By writing about an impending collapse. If enough people believe you, they'll tighten their figurative belts, save more and spend less, causing the very recession you wrote about.
(Above is oversimplified by you can see the general logic)
Equally big factor: they get rich when there's NOT a recession as long as interest rates are low. Low interest rates = high stock returns, more or less. So if they can bully the Fed into lowering interest rates to avert a recession, they still get rich.
Ever notice how the stock market tanks whenever there's a good jobs report? It's perverse, but wall street is rooting for main street to fail. (I mean, let's be honest, they never really cared about main street, but now their fortunes are directly tied to our failure).
If I remember correctly, a recession did happen. It used to be defined as two quarters of negative GDP growth back to back, but yellen simply changed that definition.
You do remember correctly, but you (and most people) were always wrong. The two quarters thing was a rule of thumb, not an official designation. And Yellen didn't change it, that's just Republican/big business propaganda.
While gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic activity, the often-cited identification of a recession with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is not an official designation. The designation of a recession is the province of a committee of experts at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private non-profit research organization that focuses on understanding the U.S. economy. The NBER recession is a monthly concept that takes account of a number of monthly indicators—such as employment, personal income, and industrial production—as well as quarterly GDP growth. Therefore, while negative GDP growth and recessions closely track each other, the consideration by the NBER of the monthly indicators, especially employment, means that the identification of a recession with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth does not always hold.
https://www.bea.gov/help/glossary/recession
We got close, but there never was a recession.
Besides what others have mentioned, there was no drop in gdp.
It was never defined as that. That’s been a colloquial marker for one but never a real definition.
And Yellen doesn’t have anything to do with defining a recession either. The NBER (national bureau of economic research) is the authority that declares recessions, and they only ever do it retroactively
The Covid 19 recession was declared despite only lasting 2 months.
Shit like this is why we had the layoffs we say at the beginning of the year. It was all hysteria made up by a bunch of idiots who want a recession for…. Reasons.
The economy is strong, inflation is down overall (though still high), and unemployment has been below 4% for nearly 2 years, something we haven’t seen for more than 20 years.
The recession we’ve seen this year is fake.
Not so much fake, as manufactured.
The jobs market was doing well, unemployment was low. Many middle-class people had been working remotely for two years, and saved thousands in commuting costs. The housing market was leveling out, prices were reasonable, and interest rates were low.
People were finally starting to feel an inkling of security and independence. They could afford to buy a house, change jobs, sell the second car, and put some money away for a rainy day.
Which is a nightmare scenario for corporations that feed on a financially desperate populace.
So corporations jacked up prices, blaming supply-chain issues, forced workers back into the office, and laid off thousands despite record profits.
The Fed pitched in, hiking interest rates, and locking millions of Americans out of the housing market, and with it, their best path to financial independence, and vowed to keep those rates high until the unemployment rate was back at a level that the Corporate masters determined sufficiently punitive, and the working class had exhausted their savings.
When the workers are acceptably cowed, and the wealthy are satisfied that they will no longer resist subjugation, they will declare the economy 'back to normal'
Never trust financial institutions opinions
Especially when they are political wishes masquerading as economic predictions. It is pretty clear that some powerful interests really want a recession because they think that will help their fascist clown win against.
The GDP fell for two quarters though. They just changed the definition of recession.
No they did not. The NBER is always the office that declares a recession and they did not do so because employment numbers did not match recession like conditions.
I mean, that's just a semantic dispute. The NBER is not the dictator of economic reality, it's not even a government organization. The truth is that capitalism is a theory put into practice, and that embodied theory is going to be interpreted differently by different observers.
To claim that "the NBER is always the office that declared a recession", negates the fact that there have been recessions before the NBER, and in countries that are not observed by the NBER.
Where are you getting that?
This isn't real GDP. Real GDP was slightly below flat in the first two quarters of 2022, but due to employment numbers it wasn't declared a recession.
What’s the definition now?
It wasn't redefined. They just never fully understood the definition. It isn't just two quarters of negative growth though that's the common definition. The NBER, who declare recessions, look at other aspects such as employment numbers before making the call. The employment numbers were too good to justify calling it a recession.
If a Democrat is in office, it's a recession.
The two quarters thing was always a rule of thumb. The real definition is more subjective.
True, but that most likely means that the Finance houses found a new bubble or regulation capture that will allow them to buy mega yachts for a few more years until it blows up and governments bail them out with public money again.
Just keep changing the way you calculate inflation every 2 years, problem solved.
"The report of my death was an exaggeration." -Mark Twain
You know who else has a recession? ( going by public definition of recession of 2 quarters of negative gdp growth)
Don't get your panties in a bunch - they said 100% likely but they didn't talk about the 80% margin of error, that's all!
There's a 50% chance things will happen 100% of the time. Guaranteed.
It either happens or it doesn't. 50/50
It's not a prediction if it already happened.
Well you were fucking wrong josh wingrove. Get bent wanker .
So I guess if bloomberg says economy is projected to grow, we're all screwed lol.
I don't think people realize that a recession is always a 2008 scenario. There was a recession in the early 1980s that didn't hit hard and only lasted around 6 months.
Due to high interest rates, oil fears, and the housing market that scenario is more likely to reoccure than 2008.
Haha.
There was a recession earlier this year but the media didn't want to report on it.
2 consecutive quarters with negative GDP growth is a recession. There's been like 2 or 3 since 2020.
Well first off, there was not remotely a recession this year. In 2022 we also did not have a recession, but a lot of people thought the NBER might call it one because of two consecutive quarters of real GDP going down. However, it barely went down, and other economic indicators looked very good (plus the rest of the year was a boom), so they didn't call it. A contemporary explanation from the Dallas fed is here and explains it: https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2022/0802/
Second off, the media DID report on it, because it's economic news. But it's economic news, so therefore boring and probably most people missed it.
Contemporary reporting by CNBC
Contemporary reporting by Forbes
Contemporary reporting by Business Insider
I could obviously keep going. But your hints at conspiracy and some kind of media involvement are both facile and uninformed.
This mf spittin.
Great write up except for the part where you say it’d be a media conspiracy in order to not report things; that’s not as far fetched as you might think
No this isn’t a main stream media fake news endorsement but these media companies do NOT have facts and truth as priorities
Example: in relation to media misrepresenting all things Trump, giving him and his lies and bigotry a platform
https://knightfoundation.org/reports/american-views-2023-part-2/
Only 26% of Americans have a favorable opinion of the news media, the lowest level Gallup and Knight have recorded in the past five years, while 53% hold an unfavorable view. Across all political affiliations, more Americans say they hold an unfavorable opinion of the news media compared to a survey conducted in late 2019-early 2020. This rise is especially pronounced among independents but is also apparent among Democrats — who typically hold more favorable views of the media. Perceptions of political bias in news coverage have also increased, with independents driving the trend, followed by Republicans, then Democrats.
Hmmm I wonder why that is….
Oh wait no I don’t:
https://fair.org/home/trump-bad-for-america-good-for-cbs/
Man, who would have expected the ride we’re all having right now? This is pretty amazing…. Who would have thought that this circus would come to town? But, you know—it may not be good for America, but it’s damn good for CBS, that’s all I got to say. So what can I say? It’s—you know, the money’s rolling in, and this is fun.
SuReLy this is just limited to politics and totally isn’t indicative of a larger rot. It doesn’t take a wild conspiracy to misrepresent facts, give legitimacy to non-facts, or even refuse to print about something
The NBER, who declare recessions, never said there was one because the jobs numbers did not in any way suggest a recession. It's not just two quarters of negative growth that determine a recession and based on the fact that in Q1&2 it was fairly easy to find work suggested to the NBER that we weren't in a recession but rather a new an undefined situation.
All of the people who can still afford food and housing forgetting that the world doesn't revolve around them and that the world is in the midst of a depression...
Not Bidens fault mind you. It's just another global systemic failure to add to the list.