I don't think we need to be worried about full-blown civil war, but preparing for an increase in stochastic terrorism probably isn't the worst idea.
Climate change will create food and water scarcity. Their life or yours.
Idk man. I've been having some huge existential crisis lately and climate change and destruction is just flooding my brain.
Anyone else or just me?
Haven't stopped planning for retirement and all that jazz but at this point it's just theater.
Food scarcity is going to come far quicker from over-farming than it ever will from climate change.
If you're not white, straight, and a guy, I'd also recommend updating your passports and maybe arming yourselves. It's gonna be a bumpy year.
I can't really imagine danger being particularly extreme for anyone other than trans people, for trans folk updating passports is likely a good idea. But keep in mind that blue states would still be relatively safe.
If shit truly gets to the point where it's death squads and fascist street gangs, realistically there would not be anywhere in the world that would be safe.
Maybe I'm being naive but I don't think we're quite at that point yet. People angry about the 2020 election were a loud minority
In the Weimar Republic, the Nazis never got more than something like 30% of the vote. Fascist "loud minorities" are still incredibly dangerous.
They got 44% of the vote in 1933, and another fascist party got 8%. Then there were a couple more far-right parties.
Two weeks later, Hitler passed the Enablement Act with the support of all the non-left-wing parties, effectively giving him full dictatorial control.
Fascists weren't a loud minority for Nazi Germany, they were the majority.
Someone made a laundry list of evidence demonstrating it'll very likely be an actual thing but I can't find it anywhere. When I do, I'll post it
EDIT: AHA! I FOUND IT! It's a Reddit comment, but so it goes. Blatantly ripping off here:
It's not just the insurrection act.
It includes:
1-Argue that Article 2 of the Constitution gives the president power to do whatever he wants.
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/11/16/politics/trump-agenda-second-term/index.html
2-Fire the civil service and replace it with Trump loyalists.
3-Use the DoJ to target critics
4-Weaken the election security agency
5-Reject climate change
6-Remove all LGBTQ+ protections
https://www.metroweekly.com/2023/09/right-wing-project-2025-seeks-to-eradicate-lgbtq-protections/
7-Bring the Bible into government
For reference, they're talking about this monstrosity of a plan Trump has set up for if he takes power in November. Don't actually vote against Biden even if you support Palestine. Shit's unreal. Shit's very clear and obvious .50 cal territory.
I think it will be a civil war if Trump wins, because it will embolden the crazies, and they'll feel protected by the government to abuse and harass others, which is what they want to do anyway.
If Trump loses, these loser chucklefucks won't feel emboldened, because they won't feel protected by the government.
They're pussies, and all of us, and them, know it.
EDIT: Now that the list has dropped. Yeah, civil war if Trump wins. Basically business as usual if he doesn't.
EDIT II: To be clear, the election could still go either way. So making plans and planning Mutual Aid Networks among your peers is the best you can do for now. Hopefully they won't be needed but will help towards some real community-building.
"America is awful! We need radical change"
"nooo I don't actually mean it TT.."
People angry about the 2020 election were a loud minority
That loud minority came very close to putting the lives of elected representatives at risk.
No, these guys are way less organized than last time and Donald Trump is getting fucked in court still. I think its less likely now than it was 4 years ago. The GOP is fracturing and losing steam. Senators and governors are still a threat but not in the civil war type of way I don't think.
What exactly is required to be a threat in the civil war type? Besides Guns and a feeling of not being represented?
Unification.
That's the main lacking puzzle piece on both sides.
If the left were unified there wouldn't be a republican in politics.
If the right were unified, you wouldn't have jackasses running their mouth at every opportunity just to get a news blurb generated about themselves.
The old adage about United we stand, divided we fall? Technically, our divisions are the only thing keeping us up right now.
If we ever come together it will end in nuclear hellfire
Organizing a war against the us army would take a lot of planning. Unless trump wins, controls the army, and enough generals agree.
For there to be a civil war, both sides need an army. The US president will have the US army, and the other side might as well have nerf guns. The civil war would last an afternoon.
If there's going to be anything, it's an increase in domestic terrorism.
That's what a modern civil war will look like.
Have you read CIA reports?
Flash pogroms and terrorism. Sometimes by law enforcement. In other words, not a stand up fight, but a bug hunt.
There's also no real fiscal incentive. Morality and freedom are important and all, but we fight wars for financial gain.
It would be a guerilla collective against a conventional force that's consistently failed against guerilla tactics.
There's no way to know how long it'd last or how it'd impact politics, but targeted acts of terrorism in cities would likely become a more common tragedy. It would pretty much gaurantee US states increasing their police forces and personal rights eroding, and I'm not looking forward to that.
Everyone keeps saying this, but I think good ole' Amercian laziness will win out and nothing happens.
Ever been around people when an emergency happens? People can't be bothered half the time; or they gawk...
Most Americans are lazy until they aren’t. Doesn’t require much energy to show up somewhere with a gun in hand now does it?
Most Americans won't do shit.
I still remember in the sequel to The first Mage: The Ascension ttrgp book that the Ascension war was fought and ultimately came to a stalemate because when the average person was given the opportunity to Ascend and be giving God like powers to rewrite the world to their own whims they chose to watch TV instead.
You guys are giving Republicans way too much credibility.
Better to take their threat as creditable now than to be surprised later
Democrats too. half the country lost a pretty significant right to their own bodily autonomy that they'd taken foregranted for basically their entire life. and they just... rolled over and took it? that's about the most concrete domestic loss they've taken this century, and more concrete than anything else on the table right now, so i honestly don't know what would have to happen in order for the left to do anything meaningfully violent.
I'm sorry, but what were your expectations towards the Democrats here?
These anti abortion laws were enacted at state level. By Republican state governments whose representatives were elected by the people. What did you want the Democrats to do here? Even if they complained, in the end if they don't have the majority in the state government, they have no power to do anything.
Even at the federal level, the Senate is 48 Democrat members, 49 Republican members and 3 independents. They don't have the majority there either.
And in the house of representatives, the Republicans are the majority with 220 members vs 213 as Democrats. They still don't have the majority there.
And if you look at the supreme court, Trump packed it with Republican judges.
So what are your expectations towards the Democrats??? If people don't elect them, they can't do anything.
The president can't step in and cancel any of these anti abortion laws because it's the will of the people. (In a way)
That's what happens when people are apathetic and don't go out to vote.
Note: this isn't going to look like the Civil War in the 1860s with pitched battles. It's more likely going to look like The Troubles or La Violencia
So long as we have mass precarity this is going to continue to be a risk. And we're going to have to deal with renegade MAGAs and Project 2025.
After 2016, I don't trust the people of the US not to vote in fashy autocrats.
What is P25?
Only the plan to turn the United States government into a broad amalgamation of totalitarianism and fascism.
I’m not saying you’re wrong but this feels like a super-Russian national subversion ploy.
It sort of is and it isn't, in a lot of ways.
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Polls have been notoriously unreliable for over a decade now. Part of it is cell phones, part of it is increasing numbers of people feeding false responses, trying to influence the poll.
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Do that many people really want to vote for Trump? Young people are notoriously leftist, and older people are notoriously conservative, and millennials on down are changing the path to becoming conservative as you become older. Meaning more and more people are leftist or liberal or centrist, and less and less are straight conservative. Trump's comments literally lead to the death of millions of old people during COVID. We have yet to actually see in a major nationwide election whether or not he actually killed a sufficient enough of his own voters to start swaying elections towards the Democrats nationally.
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Democrats and the media are doing what they always do to the young when they complain that the Democrats aren't doing enough: They'll equivocate it with saying "I'm not going to vote for a Democrat!" which is actually not what most young people are saying as much as they hate that the Democrats are essentially holding their votes hostage by refusing to do better and hitting us over the head with "but if you don't let us half ass it, FASCISTS WILL TAKE OVER" which is some seriously psychologically abusive shit, literally threatening us with fascism if we don't give in to their half ass takes. However, as an old man, I've seen the Democrats do this to the youth and depress their own youth votes for forty years. I literally lived it myself as a youth, over 20 years ago. All they do is talk down to the youth and act like any critique of their policies must mean a vote for the Republicans, not a clear understanding that Republicans are far worse, but that's not an excuse for Democrats to be the milquetoast halfass bullshit party.
So between Democrats shoving their own foot up their own ass like usual, and old people dying by the millions to preventable disease, it could still go either way, even without Russian's trying to subvert the election. As usual, the Democrats are subverting themselves well enough already.
Careful with that rhetoric. There are Internet tough guys lurking who will gladly threaten to hit you for being so bold.
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Daily reminder that memes can't predict the future.
Probably, at some point. Wealth disparity is wrecking a huge swathe of the population's way of life. They’re restless and want change.
Politically, divisiveness is continually reaching new heights. Politicians, republicans for the most part, are more reactionary and less productive. They are now fueling the fear and anger of their constituents and it won’t end well.
The US right now looks like Germany just before they put the Nazi party in power.
Lots of FUD, angry constituents, a faschism-adjacent party on the ballots, and lots of hate.
Edited: I wrote a bunch of stuff that my American grade education taught me about Nazi Germany but it was wrong.
Like how Nazi Germany was very one minded - it wasnt. The Nazi party at best represented 33-39% before they stopped counting.
Or that the population they targeted was more or less numerous. Trans people are < 1% of the population. The Jewish population was right around . 79% by best estimate prior to becoming in very real danger.
Too many people are too comfortable to ever get off their asses to do anything more than bitch about it online. It's a very small percentage of people that actually go to rallies and half of those people are middle class white people that have never known real hardship; the kind of people that are surprised when they get pepper sprayed while trying to break into the capitol. There won't be a civil war, but we're definitely on the brink of single party rule.
We're like a bunch of frogs sitting in water that is being slowly brought to a boil, but except for water it's fascism and half the country is okay with it because they think they are "saving the children." The other half think they can stop it. I think that both sides might be delusional.
It’s hard to do more when we're working ourselves to death just to afford basic necessities. That tipping point gets closer and closer though.
And how many of frogs are there that just simply don’t care what happens?
I can already hear the gunshots as the polls are announced. I live in a Red State.
Come to Canada, y’all
Aren't you all catching enough bullshit just breathing the crazy fumes wafting over the border?
Those crazy people wont have a reason to leave the US though. They basically dont even know we exist anyhow.
The ones we want, the smart people, are the ones that will move. And we could definitely use more skilled labourers to build those homes we are missing for example. Plus, Americans are already proficient in English so could work real well wherever they go.
Albertan here, please don't it's just 2015 era US politics instead right now
Bad goes to worse, I do have the option of getting citizenship in the Dominican Republic via my parents.
It's not exactly an upgrade, but I'll take it over being stuck state-side.
My friend of Jewish descent recently listened to some audio recordings of his grandparents before they fled Germany.
They basically describe similar situations and feeling quite similarly to how he feels today. His wife doesn't like him talking about it, but he's sincere: he feels the need to flee.
I don't blame him one bit.
EDIT: To be clear, his desire to flee has very little to do with his Jewish lineage and more to do with how scary and dangerous the Trump cult is. Him being of Jewish descent is just like a cherry on top for MAGAs who want to abuse others. A bonus.
It’s probably for the best for him to flee, first they’ll come for the LGBT then they’ll come for him.
Muy, muy bueno
What safety plan? We can already get shot at Walmart.
🤔 Do you have any family or friends abroad or by the Canadian border? Can you get to the Canadian border in late October? There's a bus that'll take you over the Ambassador Bridge in Detroit, and all you need is a passport book or card and a good excuse. Just tell them you're going to gamble at the casinos there.
There's a thousand mile expanse of woods and bullshit across the northern states where you could just walk through the forests into Canada.
Or you could drive into Mexico if you know anybody there, such as that is.
Cruise to the Bahamas, perhaps...?
Doubt it. Of course skeletor is going to say that.
Project 2025?
Yeah I don't know about "likely" but it's not a bad thing to have.
We can't be certan that that'll happen, but no matter if it does, or where you live, shit's gonna get wild sooner or later. Global warming is getting worse and worse as I'm typing this, wars and straight up genocides are happening everywhere, and fascism is on the rise. Stay safe, for in the case we as a species survive this shitstorm, future generations will rise again. If we don't, then good night everyone.
After, no doubt, but how soon? Whoever has control of the major bulk of the military writes the next version of the US though because as much as Cleatus & Co want to think otherwise their stash of AR15s isn't going to to a damn thing if a tank is rolling up the street.
🤔🤔🤔
I think it depends a lot on who wins the election.
I believe there might not actually be a winner. The race could be so close both sides will dispute it, and turn to violence because they feel the election was stolen from them.
We see signs of this now -- younger voters are turning away from Biden because of Palestine, and Trump is leading in several key swing states but only by an ass-hair.
So I cast doubt on the people who think this'll be one-sided against Trump supporters. Also they themselves have tanks, it's legal to own them. But people conveniently forget that.
Thus the 'whoever controls the military' qualification. I like to think that the folks charged with defending the nation would hold for the established order, but it's also a collective of individuals that could go warlord and throw in with a new revolutionary force.
