What is going to happen when people realize the true consequences of climate change?
I often wonder how the general population will react when they truly realize the impacts of climate change.
I'd imagine there could be three reactions:
Apathy, as in completely shutting down
Panic, as in severe mental breakdown
Action, protesting etc
Now that I think of it these are the fight, flight, freeze reactions. Any thoughts?
This is where we are now and I don't see it changing.
The weather here is fucked. It's really different to 10 years ago, before that it was pretty much the same.
We get massive heat waves and record breaking temps every year. The once in a decade major storms now happen several times a year. We hardly get snow in parts of the country that used to get it every year.
We're only mildly affected compared to many places.
Oh man, just wait till they pin it on the libtards causing crop failures and storms and flooding all because they didn't persecute people enough and didn't hand out enough free money to billionaires.
Weather gets hotter, more people get A/C. Disasters get more frequent, more people get fucked by disasters.
Areas become less habitable, some people die, some people deal, some people flee. Migration gets more pressing? Borders get closed with increasingly violent measures.
We just had inflation make life 10% more expensive in many countries. Life went on. That's about the impact of climate change people in "rich" western countries can expect from climate change, except it will happen more slowly.
As much as climate doomers would hope for collapse, climate change is a slow moving disaster. Humans are adaptable, especially when there is time to adapt. Even the more pessimistic among the realistic/scientific predictions are on the "life will get X% worse" side, not "doom, we all die, no food no water" side.
This ignores how interconnected our logistics is on a global scale. As other nations devolve into war, not only between themselves but against the west as well of we try to stop the migration, the world logistics will get severely disrupted, from food, to resources, to everything else. How will that look?
The west is not immune to serious consequences, and it is very likely we will see living conditions severely worsen to the point of mass unrest as well. The chaos very much will end up being global.
You mentioned the high inflation, and that "life goes on".. but does it? Or does it push more and more people to the breaking point, leading to more and more dysfunctional societies, planting the seeds for serious future unrest?
These things do happen over long periods.. but they do happen. I won't pretend to know how the future will look like, but it is far too early to say that things turned out fine.
Countries with resources won't have a reason to "devolve into war". Countries without resources won't affect much beyond that country. Why would logistics get disrupted?
I also think you're overestimating the effect. Optimistic studies claim something like 8% impact in 2100, pessimistic 18% in 2050, which is a tiny effect per year.
Again, humanity deals well with slow changes. We're mostly talking about "the economy grows by one percentage-point less quickly than it would without climate change" for the worst affected countries in the absolutely worst long term estimates (something like -65% by 2100), and a fraction of that for most countries. Just to be clear, we're not talking about "x% less than now", we're talking about "x% less than it would have been without climate change". It's likely that over time, despite climate change, the standard of living even in those countries will continue to increase, unless they, as you said, devolve into (internal/local) wars for mostly unrelated reasons.
People will slip from denial to acceptance because, by the time the vast majority of people realise it's as bad as the scientists have been saying, it'll be far too late to do anything other than scramble for the last rocketship off the planet.
To where? Like where you gonna go that is more suitable than where we already are? You gonna rocketship your ass to Mars? Cause even with global warming earth is still more hospitable than a rocky desert with no oxygen. A bigass bank account with lots of zeros isn't gonna keep anyone out of the we're collectively fucked line. Sure it might get you a spot at the back of the line, but we're all getting in it together no matter who you are.
To New Zealand, apparently: "New Zealand, Iceland, the UK, Tasmania and Ireland are the places best suited to survive a global collapse of society, according to a study"
Well billions of people will die, but not likely the ones reading this. The ones reading this will quietly keep the others from getting where we’re kept safer.
Severe crackdown on any sort of migration, which of course is incompatible with liberal democracies, so they’ll be replaced by autocracies of various sorts.
But any state that claims to protect human rights also must have a way to get asylum.
Missing that, it’s in violation of international law and any liberal constitution that was formulated with the idea of human rights.
This is what democratic parties are unable to do, and in response we see all over the West the rise of right wing populist and extremist parties. Once in power they move to change the judicial system so they can unhindered crack down on human rights. of course they don’t stop with the crack down on migrants. The next group is always the gays, along with critical journalists. That doesn’t instantly instantiate tHe nAzIs, but it is an autocratic system where human rights are no concern to the whims of the political leadership.
I don’t know how far along Switzerland is in this process, but given that we see this happening basically all over Europe and in the US it’s hard to imagine that it’s not happening there.
Apathy for as long as possible, then outright panic when it no longer is.
People who are unlucky or dumb enough to own property in an obviously bad place (like the desert or coast) will see its value drop like a rock (of course, the rich won’t care as much, because that was only their vacation home anyway). People won’t really shit their pants until groceries start to become scarce and/or unaffordable. That’ll be a major problem. As people gradually realize that their situation is hopeless, the government will have a harder and harder time maintaining order.
Has anyone seen the movie Children of Men? I expect that, at some point, everyday life will be like the beginning of that movie (I’m imagining the main characters’ bus ride to work, where he watches riot police beat people up from behind his bus window that’s covered with a metal grate.)
Probably a lot of people are going to be like "why didn't anyone do anything about this????", completely forgetting that's happening right now, with likely the same people being climate deniers.
I'm doing all three every day. doom scrolling intensifies
Really, I think you nailed it as far as the three categories of reactions go. Of course, the manifestations will be as varied as humans are.
I'm working towards building intentional community that's equipped to help it's members and hopefully neighbors to get through. But that's because I'm a super-privileged north american who is located in what I consider one of the least-likely-to-be-unlivable spots. Other than the unpleasantness of the collapse of society, I'm just hoping that climate refugees don't decide to come murder us all for our resources.
Or as we call it in America, Tuesday. It's already here, people don't realize it. People already have acclimated to "wildfire season," for example, a thing that didn't exist until the last 5 years or so in this area, as a totally normal occurrence.
First-world countries will be able to afford relocating farmland, building sea walls, and otherwise mitigating the effects of climate change. Once that gets too expensive, they will resort to geoengineering like deliberately releasing large amounts of sulfur into the atmosphere to reflect sunlight or crushing rock to speed up chemical weathering that traps atmospheric carbon dioxide as limestone. People might wish that they had reduced carbon dioxide output in the past, but reducing carbon dioxide output in the present will remain unappealing. Even the absolute worst-case scenario, a return to the climate of the Cretaceous period when all the world's ice had melted and large regions of the continents (not just the coasts) were flooded, would not be the end of technological civilization.
People in poorer countries will not be able to afford such mitigation but their suffering will be largely irrelevant to global climate policy.
During this whole time almost no one denying climate change now will admit to making a mistake.
People will just slowly move to northerner places. When those get back, they'll move again. Lots of borders will close. There will be some wars over the likes of Siberia but they won't last.
Eventually people will run out of places to go too up norther, and they'll just deny the existence of an issue.
By the time we're feeling the full effects, it's too late to mute them. We need to be acting now. and I think the general population knows it. Even if they're unwilling to mutter the words 'climate change' or 'global warming' or admit that it's a problem.
Like a conversation I had with my grandma:
"it's so weird. we've had... [sites really weird weather that's happening local to her]..."
"You think that might be because the climate is changing?"
"No! climates don't change- .... "
One of the real issues that people will see the immediate impacts of is increased migration. People will not be able to live in coastal areas, Pacific Islands or near the equator.
It's already happened in S.America with convoys of people on foot trying to get to better places but the spin has always been these are illegals and nothing more.
Eventually the gulf stream will collapse causing a mini-ice age, making northern Europe comparatively cold to the Pacific North West, for one, moving the arable/habitable band down towards Africa.
I think we can already seethe consequences. Not fully, maybe, but we do. So whatever people are dping right now: some would be spurred to action, some will panic, some will go to denial nd act as kf all is as it should be (or as you called it, apathy). And some will try their hardest to make as much money as possible while they can despite the consequences.
The only way to solve climate change is to make it more profitable for businesses than pollution. That's it. That's the only way that humans can solve the problem.
As with 95% of human problems, it comes down to eradicating greed. Which is a problem humanity can never solve. As long as humans exist, greed will cause them to mistreat other humans and anything else that stands between them and whatever they are greedy for. Power, money, posessions, whatever.
Well, definitely not easily, but reversing climate change is doable. But there are lots of secondary effects caused by climate change that are impossible to reverse, like the extinction of species. And for that reason it's important to stop climate change as soon as possible, even if the heat and air pollution can be reversed.
We already do where I work since we do a bunch of infrastructure work. It is simple enough, keep dealing with it. Size motors bigger so they can deal with heat, add cooling to control systems, waterproof sensors because of flooding. Just going to keep dealing with a hotter wetter world.
Almost certainly unilateral moves by middle-sized nations seeing existential crises to inject albedo-altering aerosols into the stratosphere.
Depending on the timing of things in the next few decades we may be in an ice age very quickly from ice cap melt acceleration cooling the ocean. In an ice age the amount of arable land would dramatically decrease and if there is a harvest season at all it will be very short. Nearly everyone would starve.
The general population wants 2.3 kids (we have none), at least 3 holidays a year, preferably by plane (last holiday here was 2016, by car, but within 100 km),... As long as the general po[ulation breeds like rabbits and keep on flying, for one, I give our species not to much chance to not go extinct.
Adapt and put serious pressure on reform. Its important to remember Corporations and governments aren't evil, they're self interested just like the human beings that made and run them. They will be much more willing to make drastic change when the impacts of climate change knocks on their door and starts affecting their bottom line. Its hard to make a profit or collect taxes when everyone is either dead or revolting and that's all they really care about.
Let's not ignore the fact that there is some progress. The ozone is slowly healing last I saw. Carbon emission checks are decently enforced. The general population is taking climat e change more seriously compared to the al gore days, and most developed countries are moving towards cleaner renewable energy as it makes more economic sense.
Hot take but many climate advocates tend to be hyperbolic and reactionary doomsday worshippers who think this timeline is the worst possible. There were people 20 years ago saying we should all be under the ocean or in a complete hellscape by now. Guess what, the planet has been through a lot worse than us and both it and life in general Is a little more resilient than what fearmongers might think. Things aren't great right now, but but they aren't beyond hope either.
In case I sound likr aclimate denying right winger, I do my part to cut down on my personal emissions. I live off solar power completely, I make sure all my clothing and cloth is hemp, and I don't drive unless its really needed. I take farmers baths more often than showers to cut down on water usage. I try to buy used things. I burn a clean fuel for heating my shelter. That's probably more thought and effort than most people on Lemmy whining about the environment. Yeah its mostly corporations doing the emissions but we as individuals arent faultless either. The corpos wouldn't existing we didn't constantly desire convinence and trinkets.
Well don't forget that humanity always has one last trump, and that is geo-engineering. At the moment, that is deemed too dangerous and the current effects of climate change do not yet justify it, but eventually, the large-scale modification of our atmosphere might be a method employed to offset the greenhouse gas impact.
Many people have already given up, which is a very common sentiment here on Lemmy. They're waiting for "humanity to die". Personally, I find such helplessness and indifference to human life and civilisation appalling. In the end, our species will do much better without such people, so I am considering them legitimate casualties of climate change. I will not miss them.
I would agree with you if it wasn't for the fact that your said: indifference
It's not indifference, it's just being able to see things how they are and still be able to bounce forward and keep on fighting for what you want. Even though you know you can't survive probably.