Britain will rejoin the EU within 15 years, former Brussels chief predicts
Britain will rejoin the EU within 15 years, former Brussels chief predicts
‘I’m betting that in 15 years the UK will come back’, Romano Prodi said
And then promptly complain about it
I'm Italian and just seeing Prodi's face (a picture of him 30 years ago btw) makes me sick. Don't worry guys, he has been never accurate in anything and literally lied to the nation in multiple occasions, so rest assured his words will never become true.
If the UK cannot marginalize their conservatives, there can be no reunification. When conservatives have any power at all, they use it to make the UK worse and keep it that way. This is just the nature of conservatism.
If the UK cannot marginalize their conservatives, there can be no reunification.
The EU skeptisicm isn't just a converative thing. The majority of front-bench MPs during the referendum era were Pro EU, and the labour party were divdied on it too. Jeremy Corbyn would never ever give a straight answer on his position on the EU because he was staunchly anti-EU, but his base supporters were hard-remainers.
When conservatives have any power at all, they use it to make the UK worse and keep it that way. This is just the nature of conservatism.
100% agree
I honestly don't want them back unless they pay a hefty price for their idiocy. Also none of that separate currency BS.
Pretty sure the EU won't let the UK rejoin with the same privileges next time
They better fucking not.
Ashamed to ask as an EU citizen, but did UK have some kind of special founding member privileges or something before? Didn't think we had that in the EU, only the vote by population size stuff.
A major point the others fail to mention is that they got a special discount on their contributions to the EU Budget.
This reduction amounts to roughly 66% of the difference between the UK's contributions to, and receipts from, the EU budget
The UK joined later.
And yes they did have special concessions (namely a currency opt-out, like Denmark, and a Schengen opt-out, like Ireland and I believe others), although the UK were far from the only ones that had special concessions. E.g. France has a roughly the same sized economy to the UK yet contributed billions less to the budget.
I'm not really sure why people act like the UK is the only country who had concessions. Various countries have all kinds of concessions, and the wealthiest ones typically had more, because they had the most political leverage.
The most striking in modern discussions is they were allowed to keep their own currency which is why it was so easy for them to leave. They did not have to use the euro and kept the British pound.
They technically were not required to be part of schengen in the original agreement and were allowed to have their own border policy
They paid a lower EU membership rebate compared to its wealth or population than other member countries.
They also had the ability to opt out of rights in the EU charter (which has never actually been exercised)
We do, and Ireland, Denmark and Poland have gotten opt-outs, too (link). The United Kingdom, however, was so extreme about it, that Wikipedia dedicated an entire article just to their opt-outs.
The UK was no founding member of the EU by choice, if I remember correctly. And later on, they only joined due to the financial prospects, not the underlying idea(ls). They always acted as though they were special when they were part of the union (see aforementioned opt-outs) and completely lost it during the Brexit negotiations, when they acted as though they had some sort of leverage over the entire EU. I quite like CGP Grey's video on the topic: youtube.com
In my opinion, the French were right when they didn't want the British to join the union; most of their initial reservations did come true, after all. So, if the UK rejoined the common market without joining the EU, like Norway, for example, that would be fine by me. But no more.
As long as the British do not change their overall stance to the EU much more (and come to terms with their non-specialness), anyway.
The UK wasn't a founding member.
I think they would, since once UK joins any other state considering leaving can just be shown UK's example if she had joined EU, it could be said it was with tail between her legs.
Most of the people who voted for Brexit will be dusty bones in the wind by then.
Fingers crossed 🤞
Certainly would be good for both parties. Both the EU and the UK were weakened by the move.
Unfortunately, in the UK, while most people think Brexit was a mistake, and most would vote to rejoin if there was a referendum (this has been backed up, by a large margin in polls for years now)... there's not much of a movement to actually call for one to be held.
Brexit dominated the political scene all the way back to the EU/Syrian refugee crisis, up until 2021. Aside from COVID, nothing else was even spoken about in political news or in parliament.
No other issues in the country got any attention, so much political capital was spent on Brexit, to the detriment of everything else. I think people are wary of having another 5+ year onslaught of hearing about nothing other than Brexit.
I do certainly think it's possible (and IMO preferable), though. Labour seem intent on getting closer and closer to the EU. Maybe their plan is to continue with that and hope rejoining is on the cards later. Unfortunately right now it's a hard sell, based on the fatigue around the entire Brexit discussion I mentioned above.
Would it really be that great for the EU, though? After all, the UK was never particularly fond of the European idea generally and further integration (i.e. federalization) in particular, to put it mildly. My biggest fear is the UK might go back blocking just about anything that goes beyond simple trade deals.
So, imho, the EU would be better off it the UK simply rejoined the common market, but not the political union. We have more than enough dissent, as is.
Let's rejoin as full members and all of that bullshit will have allowed progress at the end.
Britain will rejoin the European Union within 15 years, a former European Commission chief has predicted.
Speaking about the UK’s decision to leave the EU at the UCL Centre for Finance, Romano Prodi – who served as president of the European Commission from 1999 to 2004 – said: “I’m betting that in 15 years the UK will come back.”
His optimism for Britain to rejoin the bloc is not matched by Jean-Claude Juncker, another former European Commission chief, who in July suggested it would take “a century or two”.
Speaking to Politico, he said: “When you leave a boat, you can’t get back on the same boat.”
Hmm.
So, I think that the general Rejoin argument is probably twofold:
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The leadership was generally in favor.
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The referendum was close and happened during a time when events were unfavorable towards Remain (the European migrant crisis).
I've argued myself that I don't think that it will happen for at least some decades, and might never happen.
I don't think that I'd say "won't happen for two centuries", though. That is a long time politically to predict anything with finite time bounds. Compare the world in 1800 to the world in 2000. That's a very different world.
The arguments I've made in the past against a near-term Rejoin being likely are:
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Politically, it will be hard for the EU to permit the UK to rejoin with the opt-outs that the UK had. It has denied new members that wanted opt-outs on the grounds that those aren't being done any more. The EU would need to unanimously vote to add the UK and extend it those opt-outs. And in the UK, the referendum that was close was on being in the EU with those opt-outs, some of which I understand would be politically difficult in the UK to not have. So the very close Leave referendum is perhaps not the best guide to a hypothetical Rejoin referendum, since the latter would probably not have the same state of affairs on offer that the former did.
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The EU is not the same EU that the UK left. At the time it left, the UK had been a voice in shaping the EU. As a result, that EU was about as close to the EU that the UK might want as could be expected. But subsequent to that, it has changed. For one famous example, shortly before the referendum, the pro-EU Nick Clegg assured the British public that the idea of an unpopular "EU Army" was an absurdity, and while I don't think that I'd quite say that the EU has an army, certainly that phrase and the idea of military integration have moved forward.
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While things have cooled a bit, the UK has some of the same issues that the EU did with the UK in the form of Scottish secessionists. Scotland was not permitted a second referendum using a similar justification on any kind of near term second referendum. Politically, I think it will be difficult in the UK to hold another near-term referendum on EU membership while also not handing Scottish secessionists another near-term referendum.
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Political effect of inertia. Before, it was with Remain, and now with Leave. Reading pre-referendum analysis, my understanding is that it was generally agreed that the status quo was considered "normal" and had an inherent advantage. Leveraging that was, I expect, why Britain's pro-EU leaders had the UK join, spent some time, and then held a Leave referendum (as they had on the European Coal and Steel Community prior to that) -- to obtain favorable conditions giving the benefit of inertia to being in the EU. But they cannot really repeat that trick subsequent to a Leave referendum.
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Economic disruption and the greater political weight of incumbents. Any change in economic environment involves disruption, will cause people to be laid off and businesses to go under. These existing organizations are more organized and speak with a louder voice than the not-yet-extant businesses and job slots who will exist in a post-change environment. It's one reason why free trade agreements -- though normally advantageous to a country as a whole -- are hard to get through, as the businesses who will go under and workers who will lose their jobs are organized and very vocal on the matter, whereas the businesses who will be formed as a result of the change and the workers who will be hired do not exist, probably don't know who they are, and have little effective voice.
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Precedent for political consensus-building. Part of doing a referendum on weighty matters is as a political tool to build a political consensus for an outcome, to get the issue off the table. As a political leader, one doesn't want to have opponents of the result simply keep demanding a new referendum a few years down the road. It's harder to say "no" if those opponents can point to an earlier time an issue came up and say "but they got a second referendum".
As to the "might never happen" argument, I think that there are arguments for the UK to be a member, that it would be better-off in and the EU with it in...but that rather similar arguments would apply to Canada and the US merging, yet the two show no serious political movements to do so, though they have existed alongside each other for a long time and maintain an amiable relationship. It's clearly possible for that sort of thing to be a stable state of affairs politically.
Politically, it will be hard for the EU to permit the UK to rejoin with the opt-outs that the UK had. It has denied new members that wanted opt-outs on the grounds that those aren’t being done any more. The EU would need to unanimously vote to add the UK and extend it those opt-outs. And in the UK, the referendum that was close was on being in the EU with those opt-outs, some of which I understand would be politically difficult in the UK to not have. So the very close Leave referendum is perhaps not the best guide to a hypothetical Rejoin referendum, since the latter would probably not have the same state of affairs on offer that the former did.
I don't think that's an option. I think it's a new application and new terms negotiated between the EU and the UK, not "back to how it was". This will certainly take time to negotiate and to find support for. On both sides.
Economic disruption and the greater political weight of incumbents. Any change in economic environment involves disruption, will cause people to be laid off and businesses to go under. These existing organizations are more organized and speak with a louder voice than the not-yet-extant businesses and job slots who will exist in a post-change environment. It’s one reason why free trade agreements – though normally advantageous to a country as a whole – are hard to get through, as the businesses who will go under and workers who will lose their jobs are organized and very vocal on the matter, whereas the businesses who will be formed as a result of the change and the workers who will be hired do not exist, probably don’t know who they are, and have little effective voice.
Trading with "RoW" is hard while trading within the single market was easy. Rejoining the EU wouldn't disrupt much other than lowering barriers.
Your other points I pretty much agree with.
Politically, it will be hard for the EU to permit the UK to rejoin with the opt-outs that the UK had.
I don't think that's an option. I think it's a new application and new terms negotiated between the EU and the UK, not "back to how it was".
I'm an American, so it's maybe hard to put myself exactly in the same shoes, but if I were in the EU and able to act freely, I'd personally make the concession to permit the opt-outs to the UK if it permitted for Rejoin (that is, I don't think that there is great harm, as things were working all right earlier and that any precedent concerns could be addressed arguing that this is a special case) and if I were in the UK and could act freely, I'd make the concession to the EU to give up the opt-outs if it permitted for Rejoin (that is, I think that ultimately, the UK was going to have to give up the opt-outs anyway if staying in the EU...I don't think that Sweden's approach of kicking the can down the road repeatedly on monetary union, for example, is going to be sustainable ad infinitum).
I'm just skeptical that political leaders are going to be able to act freely on this matter, as they have their own domestic political pressures.
Trading with "RoW" is hard while trading within the single market was easy. Rejoining the EU wouldn't disrupt much other than lowering barriers.
Yeah, the existence of the TCA does mean that this is considerably less of a factor than otherwise would be the case, but there are still going to be affected parties -- the economic disruption that Brexit would cause was one of the most-prominent arguments in favor of Remain I saw pre-referendum (auto factories using JIT manufacturing will close, vendors doing cross-Channel sales will go under, etc), and this would run through that again.
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