Germans of Lemmy, how is the situation in the country in the context of the February election?
Germans of Lemmy, how is the situation in the country in the context of the February election?
Asking because I've seen it mention a few times recently and haven't really followed the German news.
What is the general situation? Are the polls giving any party favorite? Is it a topic widely discussed around you?
You won't get a good answer about discussed topics as far as Germany as a whole or mass media news are concerned because this part of social media is a bubble not even close to the average public.
But anyway...
The news are mostly filld with far-right bullshit the (sadly -at least from my perspective- former) center right CDU/CSU is copying straight from the far-right AfD as well as rediculous wishfull thinking. As in: besides their populist crap they also hallucinate solutions that don't exist (balanced financing via magically appearing economic growth, more money for infrastructure and military by reducing social security -where also magically they somehow can save 50billion they want to spend elsewhere by reduction of budgets not even a fraction of that amount-, a return to coal and nuclear power as well as combustion engines because green energy and EVs are just a fad that will pass and are also totally not mandatory by EU policies anyway).
In short: everything that appeals to the illusion of just going back in time to better times.
Which is both not even surprising: Those people spend the last years with a lot of visits in the US to learn from MAGA morons how to do campaigning on bullshit. And the (near-)pensioneers have an absolute majority (at the last election in 2021 the 50:50 voter split was somewhere in the high 50s bracket). Those people majorily vote jsut based on "I have voted for them all my life".
Oh... and the Green party as the only one actual talking about reality and having solution based on reality are evil and insane, totally to blame for every problem of today's government and the sworn enemy of all other parties... at least if you listen to all the populist politicians and totally ignoring the fact that there are a lot of successfull state governments with the Greens (including several CDU+Green coalitions). As I said, reality has left the building...
So contrary to reality Germany will elect the exact same morons that managed to destroy German infrastructure and the army for years, while also blocking any neccessary changes for decades. Also the guys who basically pushed AfD votes by copying their narratives and resulting in a massive move to the right. They will somehow correct all the catastrophic problem caused by 3 years of SPD, Greens and FDP governing because somehow none of those were caused by 16 years of CDU-led government before (also nearly two decades, again with a short SPD+Green break inbetween, before that).
The optimist in me thinks they just plan to use a strong AfD they created to force other parties to help them to power "in the name of democracy". The realist actually expects a coalition with those pseudo-nazis. Maybe not this time but in another 4 years when they had enough time to blame any problems (and as said: they don't have actual solutions) on whoever is stupid enough to support them.
So for the polls (I'm using aggregated numbers from several different polls from the last weeks):
31,1% CDU: (former) center-right happily copying AfD narratives and with one anti-constitutional proposal after the last one.
18,8% AfD: far-right (and of course pro-Russian) more and more not even hiding their direct use of nazi rhetoric anymore but of course very popular on all the usual social media cesspits (including Elon Musk pushing a lot "Germany is collapsing and the AfD is their only hope to be saved) and totally not supported by Russian troll farms *cough*.
16,2% SPD: center-left but increasingly aimless without actual plan or direction and the prime candidate for a government coalition with CDU where they will agree to basically everything as long as they can get some postions in the government (on the plus side: their base might rebel against it *fingers crossed*).
13,6% Greens: the punching bag of every other party and right-wing media (mostly -even when you don't agree with them- because they are the only ones refusing the now mainstream populism and talking facts...). Sadly the only "left" alternative... not by virtue of being very left in particular (they actually have a lot of social ideas but those aren't a priority when they are also the only party planning to not burn our planet down...) but by all other somewhat left options being useless (see below).
5,1% BSW: new populist-left party (also -of course- pro-Russia) with barely any actual plan, just a personality cult of their founder and hopefully staying below 5% to not get into the parliament.
3,6% FDP: the self-proclaimed liberals who actually lost all of their other liberal ideas for the things that matter: market liberalism, low business taxes, money transfers to the rich, trickle-down... all the classic neo-liberal capitalist bullshit. Also blockading the government they were part of for then last three years and still believing they will get voters back if they just get even more destructive.
3,3% Left: Already (barely) missed the 5% in the last election and since then parts of their party split off to start BSW and it went downhill from there (as the Left party is better at in-fighting than agreeing on left policies anyway and their anti-NATO stance was a problem even back then, even more so now... at least the hardcore anti-US and Russia fanbois changed over to BSW).
And another ~8%+ for "other" parties not even close to the 5% barrier, so not worth mentioning individually...
PS: Additional note as this isn't obvious when not used to the German voting system: With parties below 5% not getting into the parliament (with a few legal exceptions I will ignore to keep it simple) you don't need a 50%+ majority of votes but only a majority of seats between those parties that managed to meet the 5% treshold. So if ~15-20% of the votes basically don't count (Left, FDP, "Others" (and hopefully BSW) below 5%), a government coalition only needs to get a majority relative to 80-85% (not the full 100%) of the total votes to have a majority of seats. Yes that mathematically means even a coalition of CDU+Greens (31,1%+13,6%=44,7%) would at the moment have a slim majority of seats to form a government...
with a few legal exceptions I will ignore to keep it simple
It is important as the strategy of the left is to have three MP elected directly by having the most votes in their district. In case a party has at least three Direktmandate , all their votes will be counted.
Ah, a slightly biased "Bündnis für Habeck" supporter, I see 😅
I did say that this is a bubble not representing the average population... 🤣
So far there isn't really that much of a discussion about it(except the usual politicians shitting about each other prior to the election). The polls are currently favoring our right conservative Party CDU and then the far right AfD
The different numbers show how much they get indifferent polls and the rightmost is the one from the last election.
Currently it looks like that CDU will form a coalition with one of the current parties (Grüne, SPD) and the new authoritarian recently formed BSW. One of the current ruling parties(FDP), which also crashed the coalition, will likely not be relevant at all due to not getting over the 5% hurdle. They also could form a coalition with the AfD, but that's quite unlikely yet.
What's also interesting is the rise in the others category(all the other small parties that don't get into the parliament). Its share went up by almost 50%. This is something that, at least for me, shows something that is quite concerning. We really have to think if the 5% hurdle really is a good thing if almost 10% aren't represented by the big parties anymore.
CDU + SPD/Grüne + BSW?
Never going to happen. CDU, Grüne and SPD are pro NATO, pro EU and pro Ukraine (SPD and CDU from the east a bit less). BSW are putins useful idiots. There is no way they will find a compromise on foreign policy.
The BSW might pull a FDP and just stall the next government.
Very interesting, thanks!
Together with the votes for linke, freie Wähler and FDP we might see ~15% of votes cast to be pretty irrelevant. That's massive. The last two federal elections had a participation of ~76%. That would mean 11,4% of the voting body would be voting but their votes would just be thrown away. I'm not sure what to make of this but that seems like a phenomenon that should be discussed more broadly.
note that the "others" category almost always falls the closer the election gets
I mean, that doesn’t necessarily help the point if that drop is driven by the practical reality of the 5% threshold being more relevant come voting time.
No, even just CDU+Greens already have a majority in seats by those polls. They don't need 50% of the votes, just half of the ones not being basically worthless when their parties fail to reach 5%.
=> 45% in total votes = ~53% in seats (with about 15% lost on FDP, Die Linke, "Others")
Youre right. Didnt thought about that.
The general situation is that the far right fascists of the AfD are polling stable second strongest, despite their rethoric having become very unhinged over the past year(s).
The CDU/CSU, which used to be conservatives are now fully on far right policies and populism, with elements of fascism. The general secretary of the CDU suggested there should be a register of all people with mental illnesses. Note that the Nazis started making these registers and a few years later started the holocaust no only on Jews, but also "Gipsys", "Communists", "Gays", and "mentally ill" people, or who they declared as such.
The neoliberal right to far right FDP who crashed the last government will likely not make it again as there is a 5% minimum result to make it to parliament. They are Musk style far right, so immigration visas for doctors and engineers to exploit as well as smoking weed and bitcoins, but fuck the poor and pit them against each other along ethnic divides.
The SPD, social democrats under chancellor Scholz have practically no profile and are willing to commit to any right/far-right policies they deem necessary to get power/maintain power. They have prided themselves in replacing the infamous "Hartz IV" system, which used a bunch of unconstitutional methods to persecute unemployed people, rather than help them find a sustainable new employment. Now the replacement system is using more and more of these methods again, basically just being a rebrand. On immigration the SPD also moved far-right, with Scholz coining the infamous "We have to deport in grand style" quote. Also a week after a conspiratorial meeting of the AfD and CDU with Neonazis to discuss mass deportations, the SPD led coalition passed a new law to revoke civil rights of people designated for deportation and generally to make the process easier and the access to legal representation harder.
The Green party became mostly neoconservative with some tokens to LGBT issues and still talking about climate change. However they also discuss moving to a sustainable economy in terms of "sustainable capitalism and economic growth", as their target audience are mostly upper middle class people these days. They also supported the deportation laws in the coalition.
Finally the Left party is in shambles from internal dispute and the seperation of the BSW under Wagenknecht, who is strongly pro Putin and the favorite of German Talk Shows often being presented as the voice of the Left party, despite holding no function in the party passed her position as MEP.
To top it all, except for BSW, who are against Israel for geopolitical reasons all the other partys support Israels war crimes and mostly support sending more weapons to Israel, possibly facilitating a new genocide with German participation. In September the CDU, AfD, SPD, FDP and Greens passed a resolution "to combat antisemitism" where they demand that cultural and educational spaces like Universitys, Art Gallerys and Theaters should have a regular contact with the internal intelligence to review if any person they employ or work together with might not be "without a doubt not antisemitic" in other words being completely uncritical of Israels actions. The resolution also aims at shifting blame for antisemitism and the German holocaust on Arabs. For instance a Neonazi terrorist attack on a Synagogue in Halle was not given as an example of Antisemitism in that resolution, while a Jewish movie director calling Israel an Apartheid state was given as an example for Antisemitism.
To conclude: German politics have moved strongly to the right and far right in the past years. Instead of understanding and working through German history and the historical guilt, politicians from across the spectrum work together to shift the blame on Arabs and justify fascist policies by claiming them to be to protect Jews, even if they are actually used to persecute Jews who are not in line with the German "raison d'êtat". Unless there is a strong shift in the next few years through outside forces, Germany is on the best track to develop into a fully fascist hellhole in the coming 5-10 years.
The replacement system for Hartz4 the Bürgergeld has significantly less of the punishment systems. The current situation agreed on the law in summer, but the law was never voted on in parliament. So nowadays the SPD still wants to push them through, but the Greens seem to hold it up. So any sort of new law would have to be passed by the new Bundestag. I believe a lot of people have not realized that, but then again that would be the Greens doing something good, which the press tends to not report on, as the Greens are generally speaking too far to the left for them.
Bürgergeld has significantly less of the punishment systems
Yesterday, I watched the CCC presentation »38C3 - Eat the Rich! Die Menschen wollen soziale Sicherheit, aber kriegen „Deutschland den Deutsche"«. It doesn't paint a very good light on Bürgergeld.
It‘s true that the latest sanctions against welfare recipients aren‘t through parliament yet, still it is an astonishing 180 turn by a cabinet that promised to treat the weak more fairly.
Yet, in what is news to me, I stumbled over it when researching the aforementioned sanctions, in March 2024 the Haushaltfinanzierungsgesetz already designed new sanctions, allowing job centres to cut welfare by 100% for 2 months if any type of work is being rejected. I don‘t know how they got away with that, without the constitutional court rejecting it, but here we are.
Of course it‘s not much of a surprise after the media wrongfully claimed that welfare had a major increase while it was only adjusted for inflation, which is required by law.
In the end all trust in the parties that claimed to offer a more humane way of dealing with the most needy is gone and many people like me consider themselves politically homeless.
Pretty accurate analysis, if i might say. My only remark is on the term of "shift the blame on arabs" you used. I'd say there is a rising ressentiment in the media and populace against arabs/muslim/islamism, partially due to media reporting on violence/threats against jews in germany originating from people that have a deeper empathy for Gaza/Palestine due to their ethnic roots. Displaying these people this way as barbaric/evil kind of works as a justification to treat them in a inhuman way as well. So you see peaceful protests in germany against israels war being forcefully disbanded, with the police sometimes being cruel and brutal.
Man, seeing it all summarised like that is really painful
What a shitshow. There's no sane place left in the world?
This country will choose the old reliable, i.e. we will vote stand still. Soon, we will be some kind of industrial museum theme park - the Pretzels are nice though.
Super-condensed version: Based on current polls we are almost guaranteed to see the next government shift to the right hard compared to the current one. And the guy most likely to lead it could be described as "Trump light". I am very worried it will get even worse 4 years later.
Slightly longer version:
CDU looks like it will be the winner of the election, but not big enough to form a government without a coalition partner. They used to be considered center-right, but have been shifting more towards the right for a few years now (since Friedrich Merz - "Trump light" - took over as their leader). So the very best one could hope for with them in power would be an overall center-ish government.
Possible partners:
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SPD - historically center left, with a long lasting tradition to be easily pushed over on basically all their principles in coalition governments, especially towards the right
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The Greens - historically slightly left of SPD with more focus on environmental topics. Drifting more towards being SPD 2.0 in recent times. Even they recently had some relevant figures try to gain favor with voters by blaming things on immigrants and demanding a stronger stance against them. Least horrible option, but will lose ground among their own followers if they enter a coalition with CDU, worsening chances to get something less horrible next time.
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AfD - literal Nazis, and I mean literal in the original sense without any exaggeration. CDU used to have a strong stance against working with them, but that has been weakened over time. And a few months ago the leader of CDU started spreading the blatant lie that that was never a thing, despite all the evidence to the contrary.
Silver lining:
The party of selfish libertarian assholes (FDP) will most likely not make it into the next parliament after very blatantly sabotaging the current government from within for several years.
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The Union party (CDU + CSU) is going to "win" but needs another party. Thus is going to be either SPD or the Greens (depending on the result). Currently both CDU and CSU say, they don't want the Greens but they also draw red lines for SPD.
Main topic was economy but after the far right motivated attack in Magdeburg. The right party CDU tries to make the 'refugees, asylum seeker, foreign people' topic to main point. Additional we can see calls for mass survaillance from Union and SPD AS a result of the attack though that wouldn't have changed anything. So what we can see: welcome to populist election battle
Thus is going to be either SPD or the Greens
You are forgetting a party there and I have ZERO trust in the fucker at the top of the CDU to NOT align with them.
The news sadly discuss imigration and how much we need to cut social security nets way out of propotion. They are basically talking about peanuts in state spending dimensions without ever setting it in probotion of the required efford it would really take to modernnize the infrastucture of the country from energy grid and production, to trains to hospitals, to schools, even the autobahn, which always got the biggest junk of the infrastructure spending, is suffering from the cuts under the conservatives and fdp from the last 20 years.
Even going full inhuman on all social programms would barely make a dent and going full nazi on imigration would even hurt the country as germans don't have kids anymore (besids it also being inhuman af).
PS: I know this is mostly a news community, but I hope this kind of posts are okay. The topic was a bit too serious for [email protected]
Up-to-date poll results are available at
The election still feels far away. We don't even have Wahlplakate yet on the streets...
That should change any week now. It is usually 6 weeks before the election iirc.
You do remember correctly. It's maximum 2 month before the election and they have to be taken down latest a weak after the election day.
https://www.juraforum.de/news/bundestagswahl-wo-darf-man-wahlplakate-aufhaengen_247412
I have seen some on christmas with the extremly important political message: "Have nice festive days and a happy new year." 🙄
Oh, you will. With the FDP taking the crown for the most cringe
Volt already started, they popped up this week.
It's pretty much the same as usual.
If anyone wants to prevent far right win in Germany, make caricatures showing greens defending women and nature from (AfD) nazis and share a lot on different platforms.
I'm from Austria and this is my personal opinion:
- the economic situation in germany is very challenging right now because germany had a strong ICE-industry but that is predicted to fall over the next 15 years.
- people are afraid of economic hardships and are therefore moving politically right
- people absolutely vote against immigration. there's exceptions to this but they are rare
- there isn't a lot of options among the parties, the more interesting one being BSW because it isn't a classical "left or right wing" party but mixed a lot of ideas up and is more eclectic in that regard.