So I thought to myself, why is ozma / NYT / the Hill all of a sudden super interested in swing states, when before it was almost all talking about what the national polls show
And so I looked up what the NYT poll said about national numbers. The answer will shock you!
(Polls are crap, in general; I’m more just pointing out the hypocrisy of freaking the fuck out about Biden’s numbers tanking because of the debate, then when they don’t, pivoting seamlessly to freaking the fuck out because he’s 3 percentage points behind and he’ll never catch up and he’s being a moron to stay in, to now seamlessly freaking the fuck out about a new, however perfectly valid, way of looking at the polling, when he pulls ahead by 2-3 points nationally.)
You know our election is done state by state, right? Less hopium and copium, and more attention to the facts please. If Biden loses just one swing state, his odds of winning the electoral college drop to single digits. No matter how many millions of people turn out in California or New York, this election is going to come down to 10,000 votes across 6 swing states. And those 10,000 folks are telling us loud and clear, "BIDEN IS TOO OLD".
Polls have increased in accuracy every election since 2016, even then it was more democrats and the media ignoring more state specific polls that showed trouble. Pretending this isn't a huge problem is head in the sand denial.
I stick up for Biden on a lot of things because I think he did a great job domestically, and because his opponent is clearly so horrifying that he’ll make it impossible even to maintain Biden’s improvements, let alone go beyond him to the places that the country actually needs to go. But I’m actually fine with replacing him - just, according to some kind of coherent plan for what the Democrats should do instead, and a convincing case that it’ll be an improvement. In that case, then sure, let’s rock and roll.
I do react negatively to just a shrieking tide of misleadingly negative news about him - like, say, reacting to the news that he’s now up by 3 points in a national poll by pivoting to some other thing to talk about, using a framing that creates a narrative that he’s steadily losing support week by week and it’s insane that he’s even considering staying in the race, because it’s a lost cause. That I would fight against, yeah - not because I necessarily think it’s proven that him staying in is the right answer, but because that narrative is a bunch of transparent horseshit unsupported by the facts.
And if Biden is confirmed as the nominee you're going to support him 100% right? Are the people who don't vote for Biden (assuming he's on the ballot) also helping Trump?
And yet, if I point this out (in great alarm because I DON'T WANT ANOTHER TRUMP TERM) I will be accused of trying to harm the outcome of the election. Thanks a lot.
we're so fuckin cooked lmao, the dnc has straight up given up. the Bidenist regime and it's stubborn refusal to negotiate with its voter base has condemned the US to another trump presidency. I hope they sleep well in the bed they made (they will, 4 years of trump won't affect them at all. after all, they're not the ones headed to the camps)
My armchair cynic theory is that RFK negotiated with Trump to drop out and endorse him, in exchange for appointment as EPA head or some policy concession. Meanwhile, disaffected by poor performance and his refusal to drop out, the youth vote and other key Biden demographics either stay home in outsize numbers, or vote for Jill Stein or Cornell West. Trump would win every swing state and possibly some others if that plays out.
Approximately 100% of Biden voters would vote for his replacement. A non-zero amount of voters would also vote for this person. At this point sticking with Biden is conceding the election.
Or people could actually go out and tell others to vote.
Sure. This has been the strategy for a while, and has resulted in likely Biden voters becoming less engaged due to genocide and the general percieved cognitive decline as of late, and Trump voters becoming more engaged with events like the failed assassination attempt.
Biden voters are largely going to end up holding their nose, while Trump voterd are largely going to gleefully show up in droves, if conditions continue.
I don't think this is a useful strategy, and will be a repeat of 2016.
I don't see just changing candidates doing anything; in fact, you'd probably get a 'where were all the primaries?' backlash
If the majority of people support swapping out Biden, I think you'll find that it won't result in fewer voters. The DNC could also organize an emergency Primary, too. Doing nothing is handing Trump the win on a silver platter.
While I don't think Biden should have run for a second term, that's not the scenario we live in. He is running, no viable Dems ran against him in the primaries. He will be their nomination. Anything else is almost Fantasyland.
Finally some good news.
Please vote for Trump, if you don't care about internal politics - think about millions of Ukrainians who are trapped in Ukraine right now, and for whom Trump's presidency (and his promise to end the war) is the only hope to survive!
Hahaha right. How is serving Ukraine on a platter to the Russians somehow ending the war? Because that's what that felon child rapist's plan is, to have Russia win the invasion that they started.
I wonder if you come across a kid being raped like trump raped kids, would you say, "just let him finish inside you and stop resisting?" Wait nvm I'm sure that's exactly what you would say seeing as how you support that child rapist.
Trump didn't say he will "serve Ukraine on a platter to the Russians", he said he will force both sides to negotiate. Negotiations is how the wars end.
The rest of your reply is just baseless accusations which people resort to when they don't have any logical arguments ;)
Is calling Trump a fuhrer and a Nazi really not ironic to you, considering all the documented Nazism in Ukraine (our main "hero" that we rename streets after and so on is Stepan Bandera, now please go and read a wikipedia page about him. After that, please ask a fellow Pole what they think about that great guy) that Biden is supporting?
So logically speaking it's Biden who looks like a Nazi, but let's hear your arguments why you think otherwise. Of course provided that you have any, and "Nazist" is not just a mean word for you that you call people who disagree with you :)
Well, feel free to ridicule this take, what's wrong with what I said?
If Biden is elected again, the war will continue and hundreds of thousands more people will die, that may include my friends and my family and people I know.
If Trump wins, there might finally be peace.
Are you saying that if you were in my situation, and the people getting murdered/wounded were people you know, and not just people that you've heard about only from the TV, you would still root for the guy who will make sure as many of them dies as possible (as long as it hurts Russia as well) instead of the guy who says he will end the war?
Well, I'm not the one to discuss "wrecking the country" with, as I'm not American I don't follow closely American politics except for things related to destroying my country :)
As for handing Ukraine over to Russia - that's not what he promises though, is it? He promised to force both sides to negotiate. So basically the only thing that will save lives. Biden promises to just continue the war, thus contributing to more death and suffering.