Pessimism growing in Trump's inner circle that a hush money guilty verdict is inevitable
Pessimism growing in Trump's inner circle that a hush money guilty verdict is inevitable
In a deep dive into how the Manhattan hush money trial is affecting Donald Trump emotionally, the New York Times' Maggie Haberman is reporting that members of Trump's inner circle are starting to accept that he will be found guilty.As Haberman notes, there is an aura of doom in the Trump camp that t...
Apparently, it's rare for lawyers to draw objections during their opening statements, but it happened twice for Trump's team today and the judge sustained both objections.
MSNBC Commentary: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X-XetPGnx0M
I will continue to remind everyone getting sucked in by these ridiculously optimistic headlines, that it only takes one juror on the take to nullify any verdict, and if you don't believe that's in play, I would like to have some of whatever it is you are smoking.
A single juror can hold up the delivery of a verdict, but they can't "nullify" it after it's been delivered.
To clarify: In jury nullification the verdict doesn't get nullified. The law does. The scenario of jury nullification involves a guilty defendant going free due to the juror's principles--and it's immaterial whether those principles are founded in reason, truth, morality, sound jurisprudence, or sanity.
Juror #2 follows trump on truth social. Nullification is very much a danger!
I think Juror #2 sees Truth Social posts via a mirror on Twitter, and also follows a lot of liberals. It's not the threat that it seems.
Did the prosecution also run out of strikes? What the fuck.
And then we have to look at the fact that if he is guilty... What the fuck is going to happen. Do we really think that's going to be the fucking end of him? Or is it just going to be another minor speed bump?
I'll admit that I usually try to stay away from the obviously biased sources (Rawstory, MSNBC, MeidasTouch, etc) but sometimes I have a bad day and just can't help myself.
34 counts on a crime for which his lawyer already did time and Trump was listed in that case as unindicted "Individual 1".
Then again, Cohen only got 3 years and was only charged on 8 counts. Based on that, even convicted Trump would challenge the ruling for longer than the time it would take to serve it.
Not getting a conviction would be surprising.
The Republicans should bounce him at the convention, bring in a ringer, and let Trump try again in '28, if he's still alive.
Man the way Trump eats and fucking whinges all the time, I'll be surprised if he makes it to the 28th of this month, just like I am every month. Look at the dude, he is not long for this world. One of these months I'll be right.
Only the good die young.
34 counts on a crime for which his lawyer already did time and Trump was listed in that case as unindicted "Individual 1".
Not getting a conviction would be surprising.
In light of Cohen's sentence, not getting a prison sentence would be surprising.
My friend was just thinking about that. If Trump got locked up in a state prison, what would the GOP do? They haven't even thought about a running mate to prop up, if Trump somehow can't run, what would they even do?
Jan 6 was a trial run
I mean, they already paid for RFK, they may as well get their money’s worth.
Well, it's a little known fact that primaries weren't always a thing. National Conventions are called "Nominating Conventions" for a reason.
The assembled Republican delegates are getting together about a month after this trial ends and they will have to seriously ask themselves "Do we want a convicted felon for President?"
It takes 1,215 delegates of the 2,429 available to become the nominee.
In the days before primaries, this was all settled at the convention. Candidates would do anything necessary to secure the correct number of delegates.
It can STILL happen if, during the primaries, nobody secures enough delegates.
In theory, Trump right now has 1,915 pledged delegates, meaning he won them from a variety of states in the primaries.
But, there's no law requiring a delegate to vote just because someone won a state primary:
https://ballotpedia.org/Republican_delegate_rules,_2024
Former RNC committee member Curly Haugland and public policy consultant Sean Parnell argued in their 2016 book, Unbound: The Conscience of a Republican Delegate, that delegates are free to vote their conscience and are not bound by state or party laws to vote according to the results of party primaries or caucuses.[9] Click on the following links to learn more about arguments for and against this interpretation of delegate binding:
Green Papers: "The Ties that Bind–or Do They?" (March 19, 2016)
https://www.thegreenpapers.com/PCom/?20160319-0The Hill: "All Delegates Are Unbound" (July 11, 2016)
https://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/presidential-campaign/287198-all-delegates-are-unboundPolitico: "The One Man Who Could Stop Donald Trump" (May 9, 2016)
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/05/republican-convention-stop-donald-trump-curly-haugland-213879He would still run from prison, zero doubt. He’d announce a running mate, like MTG, and play the Martyr card all the way to Jan 6, 2025.
He could still be elected and have his VP sworn in while he is “incapacitated”. They then pardon him, appoint him president-for-life, and wage all out war on any remaining political opponents.
Imagine being the Secret Service Agent who has to figure out the logistics of this.
hitler also got out early before his second, successful coup attempt, so i guess they'll try getting him out in time
I imagine he could escape jail time, for this case at least. I think the judge will probably suspend his sentence or give probation, but hopefully he still gets the felony conviction. That's what swing voters are going to care about.
I cared for my parents with dementia, so I know the signs. Trump is staying mentally engaged(thanks to the legal system) which slows its progress, but he definitely has some form of dementia. I don't think he'll be in any shape to run in '28.
Yeah where is this insane math people are getting coming from? He is a first time offender facing a paperwork E Felony, incarceration will never happen for this defendant baring something egregious. Of the sentencing options available there are about four with no jail time compared to one option for City jail time (County/Riker’s Island/“Definite”) and one for State prison time (Indeterminate). This is the rare case of the coverup was worse than the crime, his failure to “cover-up” adequately maybe be his savior. In no event do I forecast an actual jail sentence baring some bombshell revelations.
They’re probably going to try for a mistrial. Delay delay delay.
I like the picture they used in the NYT article. They should use pictures like that more often!.
"I'm kicking my ass! Do you mind?"
“Objection, your honor, citing the case Have Your Cake v Eat It, Too”
“Sustained”
Unpresidented!
