Sam Altman, the recently fired (and rehired) chief executive of Open AI, was asked earlier this year by his fellow tech billionaire Patrick Collison what he thought of the risks of synthetic biology. ‘I would like to not have another synthetic pathogen cause a global pandemic. I think we can all agree that wasn’t a great experience,’ he replied. ‘Wasn’t that bad compared to what it could have been, but I’m surprised there has not been more global coordination and I think we should have more of that.’
I believe the scientific consensus is that it originated in a wet market in Wuhan.
The "lab leak theory", while not impossible, is also shorthand for a morass of conspiracy theories grounded in racist attitudes towards China. It somehow conflates that the pandemic is China's fault, if not an outright attack from China, while simultaneously downplaying any efforts to mitigate such an attack.
The racist connotations about the lab I knew about, but I didn't think it made it less true.
That being said, I just checked wikipedia:
Most scientists agree that, as with many other pandemics in human history,[1][2][3] the virus is likely derived from a bat-borne virus transmitted to humans via another animal in nature or during wildlife trade such as that in food markets.[11] Many other explanations, including several conspiracy theories, have been proposed.[12][13][14] Some scientists and politicians have speculated that SARS-CoV-2 was accidentally released from a laboratory. This theory is not supported by evidence.[15]
SARS-CoV-2 has close genetic similarity to multiple previously identified bat coronaviruses, suggesting it crossed over into humans from bats
In the absence of any actual evidence, it does make it less true. Believing otherwise means ignoring all the obvious (but admittedly circumstantial) evidence that racism is super-fucking-popular. So Occam's Razor says if two theories have equal levels of zero evidence and one is inherently appealing to lizard brain, that one will gain prevalence so if you want to correct for that bias you have to bias in the opposite direction. How hard? Roll dice.
But would the world Powers have said something if it was an escaped virus out of the Chinese Lab in Wuhan?
I don't think it's a coincidence that the wet market is 20 mins from a lab working on bats and viruses.
You have a global Pandemic, but also a big part of the population wants revenge because the Chinese can't keep their lab viruses contained and killed grandma with covid, quite a spicy meatball there.
Of course the labs location isn't a coincidence. They built the lab that studies corona viruses near a huge natural reserve of bats infected with corona viruses.
but also a big part of the population wants revenge because the Chinese can’t keep their lab viruses contained and killed grandma with covid, quite a spicy meatball there.
A shockingly large portion of the population is dumb and refuses to listen to reality, so it's no surprise they believe in a big bad ruining their 2020s and killing grandma rather than just dumb bad luck with a new virus.
Let's also not forget that we also had a large amount of people who refused to do basic COVID prevention techniques like masking, so I'm betting the venn diagram here is pretty close to a circle...
Diluting the meaning of words is a huge problem for society. Labeling anything you don't like as racist is the same tactic used by Magas when they label everything they don't like as insurrection.
I guess most people aren't up to date with this subject. There has been plenty of discussion with experts that point to the possibility of a lab leak. The wet market hypothesis has so many holes in it that it's impossible to take seriously.
Simply, Coronavirus is airborne, not transmitted through surfaces or dead meat. While one of the first persons may have been in the wetmarket but it is highly unlikely that it's where it originated. Chinese government also had heavy oversight over the investigation and did not allow investigations to go beyond the wetmarket. The narrative of the wetmarket was never scientifically verified, it was just something that was published in the early days of the pandemic and taken as fact. The only american allowed into the investigation had a serious conflict of interest with his stake in research in the Wuhan virology lab and was the person who pushed through the wetmarket hypothesis and politically assisnated any scientist that brought up the possibility of a lab leak (even just to discuss). There were more problematic things revolving this person including rejected research proposals in the US with DARPA related to gain of function with coronavirus (there is more there than im saying). In wuhan, the closest bats with this virus live 100s of miles away from the city, there were no cases of this virus seen in the countryside in the early days. The Wuhan lab had a library of coronavirus genomes, 3 years later they still haven't published it. This would help pinpoint the origin of the virus.
It's been a couple years since I dove into this, but there is way more. Especially on the side of the Wuhan virologylab. Point is, we can't say it's from a wetmarket any more than it's from a lableak. The Chinese government hasn't been cooperative in the investigation so well never be able to draw solid conclusions.
The market where it's believed to have originated kept live animals. It's never been claimed that the initial infection was via "dead meat" or from a contaminated surface.
There is an institute of virology in Wuhan, but it is most likely that Covid-19 spread naturally from bats to humans.
Bat coronaviruses are common in the South China - Thailand - Myanmar region, and viruses jump host species all the time.
Labs that handle human pathogens are maintained under very high security. The one in Wuhan is BSL4, the highest security rating, and had prior experience handling coronaviruses. Also, the viruses themselves would be marked with radioactive isotopes. Even if they somehow got out of the building, it would be possible to find and quarantine all those exposed to it.
If it was released on purpose, then we can narrow the list of suspects down to the countries that can reliably make bioweapons and antidotes with close to 100% certainty. That's the US, China and maybe Russia. The US and Russia were among the worst affected, and China wouldn't have released the virus in China.
So the most likely explanation is that it is a bat virus that jumped hosts.
The new ones wouldn't. But the original radioactive atoms would still be in your body, and they can be detected (within a reasonable amount of time).
Edit: But if the new viruses infect another person, they wouldn't have the radioactivity. So usually, in case of a leak, the plan would be to quarantine anyone exposed to the viruses (as detected by radioactivity) and anyone who has been with them that day.
For the lab leak theory to work you have to assume not only that some workers at the lab got infected, but also that they spread it all over the city before anybody noticed, such that by the time anyone did notice, they were several degrees of contact from the lab workers.
@emergencyfood@Evinceo Naw. People have some radioactive atoms in their bodies all the time. But the viruses are marked in another way: they have particular genetic sequences. And with the march of technology the Wuhan Institute of Virology would have sequenced the viruses they were studying and been able to compare the sequences on file with the Covid-19 pathogen.
the viruses themselves would be marked with radioactive isotopes. Even if they somehow got out of the building, it would be possible to find and quarantine all those exposed to it.
China wouldn't have released the virus in China
You don't know that. Nobody knows that, because China destroyed all the evidence. If this was true, they could have proved it, they could have shown the world! "Behold our innocence!!" Why didn't that happen?
One (simpler) explanation is that proving an absence of something is almost impossible, and that attempting too hard would make them look a heck of a lot guilty.
There is a good reason why the burden of evidence is “innocent until proven guilty”, and yes this extends to the (in your eyes) untrustworthy.
Prove to me you never stole candy from a store as a child (or if you did, replace that accusation with any item of higher value until you hit something you did not steal)
It's not just big hegemonic countries in general but specifically the particularly image-obsessed character of geopolitics in East Asia. Mianzi is a real concern in Chinese diplomacy.
If this was true, they could have proved it, they could have shown the world! "Behold our innocence!!" Why didn't that happen?
Most likely the municipality were trying to cover up corruption in the regulation of the wet markets. Maybe they ignored health and safety laws in return for bribes, and didn't want that to come out.
In come the posters who never posted here before to explain that the leak theory is true!
While I have no real input re the whole lab leak conspiracy theory, I do have a fun anacdote from then. I remember pretty quickly after the lab leak option was dropped somebody came with proof for it saying 'we have the telephone data, and the day virus started all the telephones from the lab stayed in one place clearly manipulated!'. This story has a few holes, note first the whole 'we have the telephone data' which is already weird (esp as china refused to cooperate), then also we don't have just one day, perhaps this behavior of phones in a lab is normal. Almost like people are forced to put their personal phones in storage when they suit up (iirc often standard practice in those kinds of rooms). Of course the person bringing up the phones theory didn't think about this. I knew we were in for a wild ride of conspiracies after that one, as it was 'throw stuff at the wall and see what sticks' contrarian theories land. (a thing you often see after a tragedy happens, extremely common in far right circles when the far right does an atrocity, where it is often sort of ingroup signal and signal of cruelty). Anyway, that is just an interesting thing I remembered which I wanted to share, on the subject at hand my opinion is I doubt it was a lab leak, but I also don't think we will ever know for sure, and also we will never find enough evidence that it wasn't a lab leak to convince the people who convinced themselves it was one.
Check my comment above. More scientists believe it was due to a random mutation (the similarity of the sequence to other bat coronaviruses was extremely similar, and this one was a small change that just happened to be potent), though there are also many scientists who find the wuhan lab more than circumstantial.
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