UK government considers preparing for scenario of unexpected collapse of Russian Federation

Living in Russia, I have mixed feelings about this slow controlled collapse TBF.

For Russia itself, maybe things being over after a couple of months (or years) of civil war starting in 1999 would be better.

But for everybody else, of course, there are bigger risks associated with that. Not really something nuclear even, just economically less pleasant.

We have a plan to invade literally every country and for if that country invades us that is updated regularly. I always found that kind of funny but it isn't shocking.

It's like saying the police is preparing for thieves robbing the bank or the fire department preparing for a wildfire. It's part of their job and it would be stranger not to have a contingency plan.

Consider the source. Pretty sure this is propaganda.

You can be prepared for all kinds of things you aren't expecting. For example you could get occupational disablement insurance while not expecting to ever use it.

Maybe they're preparing for it so it won't be unexpected

The anticipatory poop challenge part deux.

Who says they have not prepared for that?

It was made into a film called Children of Men.

Someone couldn't rotate it so they just deleted it and pretended it never came.

I thought it was; maybe the link you got was to the front page, or something? The article was mostly about how Prigozhin's attempted coup (or whatever it was) surprised Western leaders, and a bunch of speculation about how the West is scrambling to prepare contingemcy plans. So the one I read seemed to match.

However, I think it was a fluff article, with little substance. Prigozhin has been agitating for weeks, and I seriously doubt MI6 (or the CIA) was surprised by his actions. Or that nobody has a contingency plan for chaos in Russia. Putin's a dictator, and when dictators die, it's rarely a peaceful transition of power.

"Some people in UK government maybe consider thinking about doing something because something happened". Much better title.

It's Pravda, literally the propaganda arm of the Ukrainian Government.

If history repeats itself, which it often does, Putin is in big trouble. Last collapse happened after 15,000 troops died in the Afghan war. Now they've lost easily 4x that number in 1/5th the time.

Even if there's no coup/revolution/he doesn't get assassinated/etc.

He's 70, and very possibly not in the best health. Statistically it wouldn't be very surprising if he dropped dead of natural causes at any moment. Technically he's already a small anomaly of a Russian male just because he has lived as long as he has since their average life expectancy is currently something like 65 (which is admittedly skewed very young by a whole lot of stuff like drinking, drug use, suicide, and being shipped off to Ukraine) And even if he beats all odds and lives another 30 years it still shouldn't be unexpected for him to just decide to step down and retire at some point. Shit, if I had a fraction of the money and assets he has, I'd have called it quits a long time ago and disappeared from the public view.

And when he goes, no matter how he goes, there's going to be a power vacuum that needs to be filled and a whole lot of assholes jockeying for position. I won't pretend to know how that will go, maybe there will be all-out civil war, maybe just a handful of the right people will fall out of windows or drink polonium tea or just get disappeared, maybe there will be a major economic collapse and a rise in crime rates, maybe everything will just be hunky-dory and it really was just Putin holding everything back and Russia will enter a new age of enlightenment (it will probably not be that last one)

so they drink tequila and move on

based

But did the coup really fail? Prigozhin simply called it off after !another! country negotiated a solution. The coup in Turkey failed because of, seemingly, Erdogan being too powerful and the people loving him. In Russia it failed because of Lukashenko intervening and Prigozhin calling it off. Putin does not look strong currently.

The manner in which a coup is stopped makes all the difference. It only enhances the position of the government if the government is seen to deal with the coup attempt promptly and effectively. If the government is not seen to deal with it effectively, then even if the coup is ultimately unsuccessful, it undermines the government.

In this case, Putin was not seen to deal with the coup effectively. Wagner was able to secure the Southern Military District headquarters - the main operational HQ of the war in Ukraine - in Rostov-on-Don with essentially no opposition, then drive most of the way to Moscow with only minor skirmishes along the way. If we believe the widely-disseminated reports, then seven Russian military aircraft were lost to Wagner actions, but only one Wagner truck was lost in return. Putin was not seen or heard from for a long time, and reports surfaced that he had flown to St. Petersburg, and when he did appear, his message was not particularly decisive. When the coup was abandoned, it was done not through force, or by Putin publicly facing down Wagner like Yeltsin did in 1991. It was abandoned due to some back-room deal, brokered by Lukashenko of all people, the details of which have not been made public.

The Russian government's internal security apparatus appears incompetent because it did not consider Wagner a threat, even though Prigozhin had been telegraphing his intentions for days (and probably planning it for months). The Russian military appears weak and overstretched, because it could not protect its operational HQ by force. Putin appears weak because he disappeared at the crucial moments, and large parts of Russia appeared sympathetic to Prigozhin even if they weren't prepared to directly take part. The image of Putin being the supreme ruler in charge of everything looks pretty suspect at this point, and Russians know it because most of the events happened live on Russian state TV.

Putin has a long history of wriggling out of difficult situations, and he might still pull things out of the bag, but I think this is the beginning of the end for him.

So, the two conflicting armies of Russia shooting at each other, the minister of defence not anticipating this although he instigated it, the president running away, both (minister and president) not addressing the nation in a speech for 3 days after the incident, and the revolutionary leaving on his own account without suffering any substantial losses?

The Russian army bombarded Wagner camps, starting the whole affair, Wagner shot down helicopters of the Russian army during the march. Do you think that will strengthen the ties between Wagner troops and the Russian army to cooperate better in the future? Wagner didn't face any notable resistance the first cities they passed through, and that is a show of strength for Putin? Yeah, no. I don't think that makes much sense, sorry.

Putin will have to go full berserker mode now to portrait some strength, make an example of the mayors of those cities, axe the minster of defence for being obviously incompetent here, and arrange a polonium-tea or something for Prigozhin. And while this might help him save his face as strong leader, it will probably lead to more resistance from others.