I recall from elementary game theory that the ability to provably bind oneself to an action (ie make a promise you can't back out of) is extremely valuable in negotiation. It is hugely important in our day to day lives (loans, service contracts etc), but also politics.
The US ability to have people believe their promises has been shredded by Trump (Eg Iran Nuclear Treaty). We just renegotiated NAFTA to the USMCA, and now all of a sudden it's no good? How can we trust that this deal will last more than 15 minutes? How can we have any sort of partnership with an organization like this?
In last half hour, plan is for 25% tariffs on everything, Saturday, with oil decided whether exempt or not, tonight.
Fentanyl was always BS. It is about extorting Canada to surrender sovereignty. Just on fentanyl, it is used in hospitals because it is cheapest opiate. The danger from it,overdosing, is exclusively over contaminating other drugs such that dose is too high. Not that US gives a shit, but making the hospital product the same potency as morpheine, or just going back to morpheine, would be a big step towards making it safer, because some illicit use comes from hospital supplies.
It's just theater, it will cause massive problems to have tariffs on our land borders. Expect to see temporary reprieves as long as there is bribes or concessions. It's just a way to steal money and be corrupt.
Expect to see temporary reprieves as long as there is bribes or concessions.
Musk is happy to kill big 3 automakers. Can be goal here. Bribes to Trump is cheaper than responding to a supposedly temporary emergency with rushed expensive new US auto plants mothballing Canadian assets. If he doesn't take the bribes, because Musk bribed more, lawsuits are likely, or Michigan joining Canada is a better solution than a 25-50% price hike on big 3 autos.
Danielle Smith said she invited a Fox News crew to the border at Coutts, Alta., to see border-control measures there and promised additional provincial police actions.
I'm not so sure about this approach. Everyone seems quite eager to demonstrate to Trump that making threats is a great way to get whatever he wants out of Canada.
He started off trying to justify tarriffs based on (his misunderstanding of) the trade deficit. At least that was vaguely relevant to international trade.
Now he just wants a show of respect, and a token one at that, so it's tempting to just do some useless shit with helicopters to make him go away.