Biden Polling: A Guide for the Perplexed (and the Freaked Out)
Biden Polling: A Guide for the Perplexed (and the Freaked Out)
Over the weekend, Democrats or Dem-adjacent persons watching polling of the 2024...
Some interesting points about the polls done by the NYT:
https://www.salon.com/2024/03/05/there-is-something-at-the-new-york-times/
Every time I read about a historical article from the NYT, they always seem to be on the wrong sid.
Most recently, I read a book about the period just before the Mexican Revolution when the NYT was happy to side with and defend the brutal Diaz dictatorship that provided cheap natural resources for wealthy American investors. In another book about the comics scare during the 40s-50s, they had no problem publishing an article titled " Comics blamed in death" when covering a kid that hanged himself.
There's probably a bit of confirmation bias going on here, but it's still concerning, nonetheless.
the pollsters definitely get that landlines are old news and most people don’t even answer unknown numbers on their cell phones. The same applies to text requests for political surveys. Response rates — or, rather, non-response rates — are awful. But pollsters know all of that and they’ve come up with pretty smart ways to deal with it. Without getting too far into the weeds, it comes down to increasingly sophisticated ways of modeling the electorate, using those models to weight the results, and in so doing backing out a representative sample from the data.
Just quoting this here because I've seen this point made many times.
I do think they're trying, but its gotta be complex and error-prone to extrapolate like that, especially if there's some confounding factor that correlates to the likelihood of receiving an answer.
Yeah but that's why these people are professionals. Of course it's complicated to do this but statisticians do it all the time. If there's a known confounding factor (e.g. young people don't answer calls) then it can be adjusted for. I know polling isn't perfect but I find these points are less "I have a technical point about the problems with extrapolation/interpolation" and more "This poll doesn't show what I want so there must be a problem"
Even if Biden squeaks through a victory in November, him choosing to run again back in 2022/2023 was an act of incredible selfishness, and choosing personal ego over the good of the country.
Thing is, I don't see other Democrats doing better, especially once they've been attacked by the right wing smear machine
Right wing smearing is to be taken for granted. An open nomination process could have brought to the fore someone younger and with more energy to campaign. And Biden was never a terrific campaigner to begin with.
Basically, his ego got the better of him, exactly the same as Ruth Bader Ginsburg.
I think just the opposite. While we all want to raise a new crop of candidates from a younger generation, I don’t see how any have developed a National following yet. Maybe it takes a presidential campaign to do so, I don’t know, but I looked around and didn’t see anyone with the name recognition to campaign against Trump. While I prefer a more Progressive platform, a moderate like Biden is more likely to catch undecideds. If Republicans went with a new candidate, fine, start from the same place, but we can’t afford to start over building national recognition, can’t afford to lose undecideds, when we’ve seen what Trump can do to divide us so we fight each other, the effectiveness and reliability of our government, our stature in the world, the very future of our society.
Trump’s rhetoric this time has been much much worse, counter to American ideals, ethics, Democracy, engagement in the world, investing in our future, human rights. He clearly comes across as the type of ruler that US generally opposes in third world countries. And he’s willing to say it out loud. We can’t afford to develop a new person, if it risks Trump being elected.
The Dems have a bench of pretty impressive governors, who could have risen to prominence by going through a primary campaign. It's hard to think of Biden as the best possible hope against Trump, given that he has a 38 percent approval rating, a bit lower than Trump at this point and 10 points below Obama...
Not American, just a rabid follower of US Politics.
I think Dems are at a tactical disadvantage having had no one primary Biden. If god forbid anything happens between now and election day they have no one that the public knows well as backup. I watched Kamala Harris speak at Selma on the weekend; I support her as the first woman in her role but I am incredibly skeptical of her ability in any way shape or form to carry a general election.
Now Republicans have solved that problem by having a clear backup: Nikki Haley. I see there are reports right now that she is dropping out. She is, however, a viable and well-known backup due to her tenacity in staying in the race. If the GOP needed to rally behind a new candidate the cutover to her would be smoother because she has stayed in the spotlight.
When candidates drop out in our races, they often tell their supporters (including any delegates they may have accumulated) who to support instead. It looks like Haley will just "suspend" her campaign, and not give any endorsement at all to Trump.
This mainly gives her the upper hand in case Trump eats one hamburger too many between now and the Convention. As the only other candidate with pledged delegates, it makes it easier to gain the nomination when the delegates will be on their own to negotiate what candidate to nominate.
skeptical of her ability in any way shape or form to carry a general election.
Right, that’s the thing, who else? I’m sure there are great candidates, but they’re starting with much lower name recognition, much less national stature .
- I really wanted it to be AOC, but she was vilified and fizzled out
- Harris would be fine, but I don’t think her time as VP has helped her national status
- who’s Buttegeig (and how do you spell his name?)?
While a Democratic Primary would have helped these other candidates, it could only hurt Biden.
I’ve followed more elections than most people here on Lemmy, and have always been able to say that I agree with one candidate more and disagree with the other more. But I’ve never before felt there’s a candidate that needs to be avoided at all cost, a candidate that is clearly un-American, a candidate that will do harm to pretty much whatever he touches, a candidate so self-centered and corrupt, a candidate so clearly unfit for anything more than reality show huckster
Republicans have used a pretty successful system that generally picks a loser from the previous primary as the winner for the current one. Democrats seem to entirely abandon losing candidates.
Welcome to super liberal Reddit where the facts don't matter and Bernie is still in the running.
I truly don't understand the Bernie thing. I campaigned for him. He straight up lost. All the fuckers screaming about the Democrats not putting up better candidates didn't show up to vote. It's not some grand conspiracy against progressives. We don't show up and then complain when we aren't represented.
I like Bernie, but I would never vote for him simply because the razor-thin margins that Democrats need to win make any other choice unrealistic. There simply isn't enough room for a third candidate when the Republicans keep promoting fascist nutters. Luckily, Biden has proven more progressive than anyone anticipated, so you kind of got a win in the end.