The Pentagon Is Planning a Drone ‘Hellscape’ to Defend Taiwan
The Pentagon Is Planning a Drone ‘Hellscape’ to Defend Taiwan
The US Defense Department’s grand strategy for protecting Taiwan from a massive Chinese military offensive involves flooding the zone with thousands of drones.
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China has no incentive to invade Taiwan. Geographically there's nowhere but the heavily fortified western side of the island to land an amphibious assault. And even if you get a beach head there, it's not Normandy, there's sheer fucking cliffs, and then MORE mountains. China doesn't have the Navy to setup a blockade or the carriers to setup an air bridge and if they did it'll be Antoniv all over again.
The Taiwan government isn't trying to unify the "two Chinas" anymore as Chiang Kai-shek and Sun Li-Jen have been dead a long while. The PLA or what's left of it does not want control over mainland China and the current ruling Taiwanese government are happy to create 60% of the worlds super conductors. In fact they have Thermite and other destructive charges setup in the fabs in case china invades. There's other fabs in the US or EU they can spin up with engineers and personnel that will likely be swept away by the US or Japan or South Korea.
This is saber rattling from the Pentagon and a distraction from Pooh Bear's own internal problems. Nobody wants war in Taiwan most of all the Chinese.
However it would be very profitable for defense contractors. Hey, I should write an article about that.
Edit: sorry if it wasn't clear in my tone, I do not like China and do not support their foreign policy. People in Taipei and across Taiwan are very very worried. And likely as not it's so Xi can feel big after the Olympics. It's terrible that they're taking advantage of such global strife to pull this again. With Iran and Israel playing brinkmanship, the genocide in Palestine, the ongoing war in Ukraine... A German naval vessel is waiting for the go ahead to cross international waters.
Edit 2: I have sprinkled references to support my points throughout my comment to hopefully form a cogent thought from the word salad I originally wrote. Further reading for those interested:
https://www.cfr.org/article/why-china-would-struggle-invade-taiwan
China has no incentive to invade Taiwan.
I hope you are right, but your post is giving me big “herr Hitler is not going to invade Poland” vibes.
There isn't the same political pay off at home in China that Hitler got. Chinese economy is not in the same dire straights and there is no economic benefit as China would start a war with 70% of their trading partners.
Also unlike when Hitler invaded, the EU and the US is already building up arms because of the bullshit Putin is pulling right now.
When I get to my computer tomorrow I'll drop some links. But this is sounding more like North Korea and less like Nazi Germany.
Tbf other countries were starting to build up prior to the start of ww2, it's not like they suddenly started the war effort in 1939. Afaik the only reason the war didn't start when other countries were annexed is because Britain and France wanted to build up their armies first and Poland just became the breaking point.
So on that timeline we should've already been at WW3 for about a year now
We might already be.
WW2 wasn't yet a world war in 1939 either.Both Ukraine and Gaza have the potential to spiral into wars involving players on all continents.
Agreed and I touched a little bit on that in the last edit of my original comment.
I really think this is Xi pushing a lame duck president in an election year to get a little more coastal boarders. Also showing internally that the recent purges have been effective and that he can now posture with a show of strength.
This could be setting the groundwork for their 2030 plans but I don't think this is an immediate threat on the level of the general media coverage. I mean look at all the engagement it's generated here.
Pooh bear found out his missiles were fueled with water, and some of his launch silos never existed. He did a purge of the military and got real quiet about launching an invasion
Now they're showing their special forces threading lines of needles and riding electric skateboards.
I'm not saying China wouldn't invade Taiwan, but I really don't think they're going to in the near future
The missile engines were being used to heat up pot noodle on cold days, so I completely understand the motivation of those remote PLA Airman
To a more serious point, likely as not they'll try a quarantine and gauge response.
They did just get access to the shared river between NK and Russia and got permissions from Russia to dredge it to give them easier access to the Sea of Japan.
Likely as not this is Xi consolidating power again and setting the groundwork to better support and enforce their shipping lanes. I mean the Belt and Road initiative wasn't approved by Russia till recently. But with the war in Ukraine and the sanctions that followed Russia is leaning on China a lot more and Xi is taking full advantage of it.
Or how we were all convinced that Russia wouldn't invade until it actually happened
Pasted from my response to another post
Russia invaded Ukraine twice before there was a war, Putin took Georgia before that, very little international response happened. It wasn't until Ukraine had the Revolution of Dignity in 2014 before anyone was even concerned about Ukraine and when Zelensky was elected, a comedian, Putin thought he could have his special operation and assassinate Zelensky.
There's none of that in the last 30 years with Taiwan. Unlike Ukraine in 2015; Taiwan has very strong mutual defense treaties with Japan and the US, strong trading partners in the EU. There's a German Naval Vessel standing by to join the fight
The position the US holds about Taiwan and making it rain "hellfire from drones" tells you all you need to know. They just last month let Ukraine use HIMARS in Russia, and Ukraine took Kursk.
Chinese troop numbers are down, their equipment isn't doing well in Ukraine and their pilots are using solid fuel from missiles to cook hot noodle on cold days.
Now if this article was about the Chinese "third navy" I'd understand the rhetoric but it isn't.
There are rumors that Xi has been overthrown and is now only a figurehead.
I believe those have been debunked if I'm inferring that you're referencing the most recent of such rumors.
Let me know if that's not what you heard as I'm happy to be corrected.
Nobody is saying invading Taiwan would be a good idea, the CCP has been very consistent in stating that they are willing to do it though.
I personally thought Ukraine wouldn't be invaded by Russia because it would make no sense and go against Russia's interests. Turns out I was half right, but it happened anyway.
So let's hope that it's all sabre rattling and continue planning for the worst.
Russia invaded Ukraine twice before there was a war, Putin took Georgia before that, very little international response happened. It wasn't until Ukraine had the Revolution of Dignity in 2014 before anyone was even concerned about Ukraine and when Zelensky was elected, a comedian, Putin thought he could have his special operation and assassinate Zelensky.
There's none of that in the last 30 years with Taiwan. Unlike Ukraine in 2015; Taiwan has very strong mutual defense treaties with Japan and the US, strong trading partners in the EU. There's a German Naval Vessel standing by to join the fight
The position the US holds about Taiwan and making it rain "hellfire from drones" tells you all you need to know. They just last month let Ukraine use HIMARS in Russia, and Ukraine took Kursk.
Chinese troop numbers are down, their equipment isn't doing well in Ukraine and their pilots are using solid fuel from missiles to cook hot noodle on cold days.
Now if this article was about the Chinese "third navy" I'd understand the rhetoric but it isn't.
Yeah that's a good point, the situation is not really all that analogous. I certainly hope you're right. Maybe they can even stop harrassing Taiwan one day too.
That unfortunately is never likely to stop. I wish Xi would let it go.
He's facing internal struggles of looking weak to the military. https://www.businessinsider.com/china-military-loyal-communist-party-purges-xi-jinping-speech-2024-7?op=1
I mean fuck they just got a command structure. Until the 2000s the generals instructed the soldiers and the soldiers taught the generals.
They can't even project enough power in Africa to keep Chinese nationals safe, look up Central African Republic Chinese Nationals if you like.
I think you're right on this one, I don't hold out much hope for it but I can dream. For now the status quo will have to do.
Keep on dreaming friend and may they be pleasant ones. It's a curse that we live in such interesting times.
I don’t disagree with the points you’re making in terms of military explanations.
I think the U.S. definitely wants to provide Taiwan with all manner of drones, as they can use that as a test bed for their own drone efforts. Even if it’s unlikely to actually occur, I think the specter of China getting involved militarily is an opportunity the U.S. is keen to exploit that will allow them to deploy and test drone systems on the dime of one of their strategic partners, rather than solely at their own expense.
But I also think that China is working on a diplomatic/economic win in Taiwan.
With the recent passage of the … oh, I can’t remember the name of it … the law that allows China to arrest people who criticize China online that will apply to Chinese citizens who live/work in Taiwan, or to Taiwanese citizens who have reason to visit China, it means that there is a pall of fear over criticizing China in Taiwan.
If folks can’t criticize China, it skews the narrative in Taiwan. A few more laws like that, some social/election influence campaigns (in the U.S. and Taiwan), and I could see a gradual undoing of Taiwanese-U.S. relations, and perhaps even a voluntary joining of PRC in a few decades.
I’m sure, though, that the U.S. is doing the same thing in Taiwan, to try to keep the relationship tight. So it sorta comes down to who can do the best data mining, influence campaigning, and crafty diplomacy.All armchair speculation on my part, but that’s how I think it’ll shake out. Less of a military conquest, and more of a cultural conquest.
My response was targeted against the Hellfire against a Chinese Invasion referenced in the orginal article, so that was absolutely militarily driven and focused.
However the one thing the dictatorship of Xi can do is have a long form plan of unified direction and consistent rhetoric. That's something the US has been incapable of the last 12 years unfortunately.
So yes, China is much better at looking at economic targets and wielding soft power. If Taiwan does fall, it'll be diplomatically, with very if any military intervention. I believe the law you're referencing came out of the CCP Central Committee Sixth Plenum referenced below.
However I would also look at the CCP's 2030 plan and recent military purges as direct support for a military response to be essentially posturing, for now.
China has no incentive to invade Taiwan
Thank you for explaining you know nothing about geopolitics right at the start.
Care to offer your views?
- China has an old ideological incentive
- Xi might want an invasion to hide his own failures
- China wants TSMC ** TSMC might be rigged to explode, but China might be willing to go, anyway, in a "if we can't have it, nobody can" strategy
- China doesn't want an unsinkable aircraft carrier in range of its mainland
- China wants to extend its territorial waters and exclusive economic zone ** Which itself has implications for how the US can deploy carriers around China
You can argue that none of the benefits add up to the cost of an invasion--I would tend to agree--but saying China has no incentive is just dumb. In particular, ideological reasons may be weighted much higher by Chinese leaders than any outsider could guess.
Thanks for the reply.
I'm quoted using such black and white language from my original post so I'll have to leave it there even though I know it smacks of smug rhetoric, but I said it so it'll stay.
I do have counter points to each of your points in my original post except for the unsinkable aircraft carrier, however pardon the pun but that ship has sailed. But you know that as you referenced the killswitches TSMC has.
That last point I think we agree. With the recent purges in the military and a lame duck president with a pending election that's exactly what I think is happening here. Especially since they're not really moving any of their "third navy" into formation for defilade and screening so it is still, as it stands, a loud and frightening bluff.
Ultimately, if China truly has no incentive to invade Taiwan, why not just recognize it as a sovereign nation? They haven't, they likely won't, and that to me is enough evidence to show that there is reason to invade - we as armchair strategists simply don't know them.
Does China benefit from the current arrangement in any way that would motivate them to keep the status quo?
Yes absolutely they benefit from the current status quo.
First is the nebulous status Taiwan has in global politics the Chinese government uses it as a smoke screen for all sorts of complaints and a great source for demanding concessions and justifying their actions. Especially against the" colonial powers in the West that are oppressing the Taiwanese."
spoiler
Which there is colonial oppression from the west but I wouldn't look to Taiwan as a victim in that regard, South America and Central Africa however are a different story. Where the PRC have their own history of colonial actions but that's not the topic of this comment.^
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce8dy437pdno
For the PLA there's an outsized boogyman with Taiwan that they can beat the war drums for to drum up support for increased military presence. They have war games frequently, almost every year, to counter the "threat of the US and their hold over the poor Chinese bretheren on Taiwan"
Much like how politicians aren't often incentivised to fix the potholes in the roads or solve other simple issues, what will they campaign on next year if the roads and bridges are fixed this year? The PLA use Taiwan to justify arms buildups and Naval investments
Note these exercises are from a year ago and you'll see a long history of such actions if you look for them https://www.nbr.org/publication/the-plas-strategic-deterrence-a-case-study-of-the-april-2023-exercises-toward-taiwan/
https://news.usni.org/2023/10/31/chinese-military-corruption-wont-slow-pla-expansion-panel-says
I didn't think about that - I can see Taiwans benefit as a bargaining chip.
Yeah, as far as PRC external communications go, it's usually 50/50 if they mean the exact opposite of what they're saying. It's a very very very complicated situation, however China gains a lot more from a separate Taiwan with a nebulous international status. The US and to a smaller extent Japan and the EU both benefit from a threatened Taiwan as well actually, as it is likely suppressing the price of TSMC.
https://www.ft.com/content/b452221a-5a82-4f5d-9687-093b9707e261
The US could do a lot for Taiwan if they were to have a unified and consistent message on the diplomatic status in Taipei. That would take away a lot of the grey area and would force China to present a direct and clear response. However that's not in the best interests of American business who rely on cheap and exploitative labor in mainland China, and well as Smedley said, War is a Racket.
China doesn't have the Navy to setup a blockade
Do you have sources that backs up that claim? Just because they didn't do so in a sabre rattling exercise doesn't mean they can't. Afaik their navy is actually quite capable, and actually it's the largest in the world by number of vessels.
The sources are in my original post.
Basically it boils down to the US Navy has been built up to directly interidict, challenge, and if need be destroy Chinese vessels. The US Navy is and has been intentionally building naval forces to counteract Chinese naval practices and doctrine. Numbers in naval battles aren't really all that important. Now it's mostly down to sigint, jamming, and other interuptive measures.
Pages 51 and 52 will be of direct interest to my point https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/RL/RL33153/280
I can't find a source that backs up your claim that the Navy can't blockade Taiwan, can you point it out?
I edited the comment you replied to with more sources and here is the original link that is in the post
It's second from the bottom in the original post
Is it safe to say that the intent behind your first post was that China has no reason to invade Taiwan in part due to American protections? I originally interpreted it as China has no reason to invade Taiwan, so we should spend less.
Yes, China has very little economic or political incentive to invade Taiwan and zero military benefit. They only really have an ideological incentive that they use in messaging internal and external to bolster the PLA and shows of strength. I think current spending levels are sufficient to counter the PLA and PLAN. I think we should refocus on smaller asymmetric munitions in the DMO and also smaller more mobile platoon command structures. So redirect funding away from large ships and to more disruptive forces, especially for the USMC
https://news.usni.org/2024/02/29/report-to-congress-on-navy-distributed-maritime-operations-concept
To further clarify it is American, Japanese and EU protections as there is still a German Naval Vessel on standby to join in the fight and how the Japanese are ramping up their "Defense" Forces.
Thank you for taking the time to go in depth on your claim. Have a good day!
Anytime!
I updated my previous response with another link if you're interested in a deeper dive.
And even if you get a beach head there(on the West side), it's not Normandy, there's sheer fucking cliffs, and then MORE mountains.
Idk much about Taiwanese coastline, but your wiki article states:
The terrain in Taiwan is divided into two parts: the flat to gently rolling plains in the west, where 90% of the population lives, and the mostly rugged forest-covered mountains in the eastern two-thirds.
Yeah beach is heavily defended on the west side. Over watching those beaches are cliffs, behind those cliffs are mountains. The east side of the island, facing away from the PRC is just all mountains.
US SOF have trained Taiwanese forces to basically evac as many folk as possible and for the Taiwanese army to take up fighting positions in the mountains.
Look to Afghanistan or Switzerland or Vietnam to see how that tends to work out for the invading forces.
There's a map in that link that shows the terrain.
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-green-berets-explain-how-they-train-taiwan-troops-2021-10?op=1
Note take special care when researching this as the Taiwanese minister of defense was misquoted earlier this week. Taiwan still only hosts rotating SOF when PLA exercises are active and the US and Taiwan have their joint training/exercises. There is not and hopefully will not be a permanent US base on Taiwan.