Should we believe Americans when they say the economy is bad?
Should we believe Americans when they say the economy is bad?
In an increasingly polarised and performative society, vibes are now often trumping objective reality
Author is heavily opinionated and Kinda uses stats as a weapon. Ignores that a lot of those jobs are part-time, non benefitted positions or that corporations are buying houses making it hard for the younger generations to buy one. Not to mention wage gaps and vanishing pensions, etc.
But certainly, tell me more about how I should be positive about end game capitalism.
These are measurable, objective things that people are getting wrong:
By huge margins, they believe inflation is still rising (it’s falling), that it has outstripped wage growth (wages have outpaced prices), and that they have become less wealthy (they’ve become much wealthier).
These are core facts about the US economy. I don't think it's okay to say 'they answered incorrectly because they're worried about other things that weren't being asked about'.
A functioning democracy is predicted on having a rational electorate. But the repeated evidence of the last several years is that huge numbers of American voters seem unable to grasp the objective facts and reality of the country and world that they live in. For a long time we've all focused on the right-wing extremist angle to this - climate change denial, anti-vaxxers, 6 January denial, and so on. But the next US election is going to be centred around the economy, yet it seems like a lot of voters (drawn from both left and right?) are being influenced by a subjective worldview of the US economy that differs from objective measurable reality. They're going up vibe themselves into a Trump presidency.
Inflation is "falling" in the sense that it's going up less fast than it was. It's still rising, but at a slower pace when compared to the same period last year. Americans are not wrong to think inflation is still a problem. It may be objectively "falling" but do not mistake this for deflation, which is not occurring.
Oh, so I will get to retire? Neat.
COVID highlighted a good bit of futility and pointlessness. As a well as a feeling of being locked in a cage with 30-40% of the country that's just insane
So I guess it is rosey now for someone. Probably won't hold and I know people who have personally suffered a nervous breakdown, without adequate care, as a result. People are fucking tired.
And let's not even get started on climate change and the future for our children given how pathetic people acted during an acute crisis.
Not really surprising that people changing to better paying jobs are getting paid more. But when you are forced to change jobs to buy food, it's gonna sour your opinion of the market. Or that wages have increased for those in industries with strong unions that have done things like strikes to get those benefit, many are not gonna consider that an indicator of the economy as a whole even if it's been done over several industries.
Also, the wage increases have largely being high schooler or less workers (according to this article) that no longer were able to fill positions otherwise, which for some reason a lot of people don't seem to think are real jobs nor is it going to influence the opinion of influencers' opinion of the economy as a whole.
The article is paywalled, but is there are talk about the testing methodology used? Because if I really wanted to, I could find the poorest american cities, survey people there, and then use statistics about the country as a whole to make them look “unable to grasp objective facts”. It’s foolish to blindly trust statistics without understanding how they were gathered.
I get looking at things like that goes against the blinding arrogance of a neoliberal philosophy, but does it really stand up to reason that people wouldn’t know if they’ve become wealthier, if you’re even bothering to ensure they’re defining wealth in the same way your statistics are?
Any stat can be a weapon if it’s right enough.
Ah yes, the vibes are the problem. Those silly, goofy vibes. They’re to blame for:
- My rent has increased 13% from lease to lease
- My grocery bill has gone up 33% in the past year
- I can’t afford to buy a new or used car
- I suddenly became unable to buy a house in the past six months
- My credit card interest rates are almost 20%, which is considered to be on the low side
- My yearly raises at work (5.5%) have not kept up
Others have pointed out problems with the article, and I want to add that economists are inherently biased because they earn a median salary that is twice the national median, meaning they do not personally experience price increases as difficult as the typical American. And finally, the description of society as “performative” makes me think they may have their head up their ass.
It’s not a mystery, it’s a problem with averaging. The bell curve is shifting over because it is being skewed by whoever is raking it in due to artificially increased pricing. Many people keep a budget and aren’t relying on their feelings about the economy when they tell you that groceries cost them more than double their pre-covid budget thresholds for less and lower quality food, unsustainably high rents have increased from 10 to 30 percent for many (at least in cities), and electricity costs have continued to rise. If your wages didn’t increase enough to cover all those increases than you are personally worse off. Who cares how it averages out in the larger economy.
I think one of the issues is that many of these metrics don't align with our reality. An example that appears to be wholly overlooked by the supposedly astronomically high employment is a lack of blue collar skilled workers. I've been trying for more than a year to schedule an appointment with a contractor to evaluate my roof for replacement because it started leaking. The waiting list is astronomical, and when I asked about why that is they said they cannot find anyone to do the work. Somehow I have to feeling that the statistics are not reflecting reality, because numbers in aggregate rarely demonstrate the root cause of a problem.
An example that appears to be wholly overlooked by the supposedly astronomically high employment is a lack of blue collar skilled workers
I don't understand because I would expect this to be the case based on the statistics.
Yeah, if we have low employment it means that everyone is looking for workers. Now you could argue that workers are not properly distributed, but the result there would be that the roofer can charge high prices and start paying more (which would attract more roofers).
Non-paywall link: https://archive.is/BFl9w
The chart of basic facts about the state of the US economy that most voters get wrong is astonishing.
I don't need to believe anyone. Im living in it.
It's important to note that Americans are all over the place when it comes to the economy. To start, take this link to a bar chart from a Quinnipiac Poll in August: https://imgur.com/a/lHtPjJW
This graph shows that these types of polls are inherently inaccurate becuase Americans are answering according to their polical affiliation, not their actual economic situation. This graph also shows that the majority of democrats and republicans believe their current economic situation to be good.
An another reason why some Americans might be disgruntled is that wage growth across the US has been very uneven. This chart from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that wage growth has not been consistent across the US: (https://www.bls.gov/charts/county-employment-and-wages/percent-change-aww-by-state.htm). Those living in an area of low wage-growth are probably less likley to believe the economy is doing well.
NYC, for example, has had consistently rising rents and only seen an average increase of 2.1% for wages. In contrast, Charlotte, North Carolina, has seen rents fall as much as 4.6% in some areas while having an average wage growth of 6.7%. Declines in rent in Charlotte are largely attributed to an increase in new housing. Link: https://charlotteledger.substack.com/p/charlotte-apartment-rents-fall-as?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
So, it's complicated. I think the democrats best move going forward is to hammer the republicans on things like abortion, and let the economy speak for itself.