Russia rearming faster than thought ‘for possible attack on Nato’
Russia rearming faster than thought ‘for possible attack on Nato’
Vladimir Putin is ‘clearly creating the conditions’ for an assault, says German army chief
Summary
Germany warns that Russia is rearming faster than expected, replacing war losses and stockpiling tanks, missiles, and drones.
Putin has redirected Russia’s economy to fuel its military, aided by supplies from Iran and North Korea.
While there’s no clear evidence of plans to attack NATO, Russia is creating the conditions for it.
On the Ukraine front, Russian forces are advancing in south Donetsk, nearing strategic town Pokrovsk, a key supply hub and coal mining center.
Analysts suggest Putin aims to seize land before potential peace talks.
You're viewing a single thread.
I'm sorry, but even with the U.S. out of NATO, Russia would get their ass kicked. Putin must know that.
All depends on if NATO as a whole isn't just a bluff. Are the UK, Germany and France, the three remaining major economies after the US leaves, actually going to go to war with Russia over Lithuania (no offense at all toward Lithuanians), for example? That's what he's testing, and that's why he wants the US out.
NATO is required to come to the defence of any member nation if it is attacked.
On paper, yes. Will they, though?
Yes.
I'm not sure if people know the history of trilateral defense agreements.
Iirc it was the French and English who put their war on hold to fight the Spanish specifically because of a weird defense pact.
Do you mind if I borrow your crystal ball? You seem unusually certain of things most leading experts would call "very likely."
It would be weird if experts called it very unlikely, very likely is itself a claim of near certainty.
NATO was specifically created to counter a Russian invasion, so it would be kinda weird if it didn't do the exact thing it was built for.
No they won't. They'll yell and saber rattle. Won't do anything till it reflects them as history has shown.
I don't think it would matter because if Lithuania is invaded, Estonia, Latvia, Poland and Finland are joining the fight and that's already a huge war in Europe. Sweden seems ready to defend and if Sweden goes it's pretty safe to assume Denmark and Norway are going as well.
Then, if Denmark is fighting, the Netherlands are probably going to help and if the Netherlands are at war so it's Belgium, you see the pattern. So while I don't think Spain would want to defend Lithuania, they would defend France.
This is actually not true.
Article Five states that an attack on one becomes an attack on all. This wording is very specific, and they wrote it with this wording intentionally, to get people to be willing to agree to join.
It does not require counterattacks or declarations of war, merely that you consider an attack on a member an attack on you.
How do people respond to different sorts of attacks? How can they theoretically respond if they so choose? These are the kinds of games being played in Putin's head.
Article 5
The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.”
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm
As far as mutual defence treaties go Article 5 is worded very strongly and any nation failing to provide assistance to a member nation would find itself a pariah.
The chances that an article 5 event involving Russia doesn’t trigger full scale war are slim to none.
such action as it deems necessary
That's a key phrase.
Pariah, possibly, but I don't think a party like the AfD would particularly care about pariah status. I'll also remind you that Article 5 has been triggered once, by George W Bush after 9/11. He then wanted to invade Iraq, and did not receive the full support of NATO members.
It's just not that simple, unfortunately.
Yes because Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11. You can't make up an attack on a NATO member and then ask for the article 5 to be invoked.
Surely you see that?
Of course. But the principle remains that if your allies do not want to participate in your military action, they are not required to.
It's the people in charge of that country that make the decision of how they want to respond to your Article Five invocation, based on their own values and priorities. That freedom of choice is fundamental to NATO.
NATO could crumble and Germany and France would still come to Lithuania's aid, they're an EU member. With NATO gone UK might technically not be on the hook any more but they'd still get into the fray, despite their faults and their insistence that they're not they're still Europeans.
The actually difficult part would be stopping Poland from bee-lining for Moscow, nukes be damned. They don't spend 4.7% of GDP because they plan on sitting back.
That's a lot of faith to have in treaties. Historically Nations tear up treaties of the drop of a hat. They're only as valuable as the vested interest of those involved.
The EU is way more than just a treaty.
Everything's just a treaty at the end.
Nations, towns, families, your left hand agreeing with the right, all just treaties, got you. Maybe go a bit easier on the reductionism.
Right back at you with the Absurd hyperbole.
We have common elections, we have a common citizenship, we have a common identity, in many areas it's even common to identify as European over the nation state. That is, regional identity first, then European, then whatever nation state the region ended up in.
All just a treaty.
I think the plan is to be ready for WWIII, when China, Russia, Iran, and… haha…. North Korea, team up.
Add the US to that list. Just watch.
Nah. What’s the end game there. Greenland?
So are those the good guys or bad guys? I don't know anymore. It would be funny America trying to take over a bunch of countries and China coming to European aid. What a screwed up world we live in.
That’s what’s fun, geopolitically there are no “good” guys
Only bad guys and innocent civilians who suffer because of a few dumb “leaders”
Not if the US gives them troops and arms.