Russia's Defence Ministry said on Wednesday it would deem all ships travelling to Ukrainian ports to be potential carriers of military cargo and their flag countries to be parties to the conflict on the Ukrainian side.
Battle of the Atlantic, pt II, coming up next! Flood the black sea with cheap corvette class ships! Depth charges for breakfast!
No seriously, I'd hate to be in the risk assessment side here. Do you try to provoke an attack by going anyway? So that you have an excuse to respond in full force?
Turkey won't allow military ships to pass the Bosporus in any direction while there's a war on. This prevents Russia from reinforcing their Black Sea fleet but also prevents Western navies from entering.
If the West decided to go hot, Turkey not letting western navies into the Black Sea wouldn't really make a difference to the continued existence of the Black Sea fleet
Guarantees "complete freedom" of passage for all civilian vessels in times of peace. In peacetime, military vessels are limited in number, tonnage and weaponry, with specific provisions governing their mode of entry and duration of stay. If they want to pass through the Strait, warships must provide advance notification to the Turkish authorities, which, in turn, must inform the parties to the convention.
In wartime, if Turkey is not involved in the conflict, warships of the nations at war may not pass through the Straits, except when returning to their base.
When Turkey is at war, or feels threatened by a war, it may take any decision about the passage of warships as it sees fit.
Montreux Convention signatories who are also allies of Ukraine are not at this point active belligerents in the Ukrainian war, so technically, it would be 100% above board for any of them to send a military vessel into the Black Sea.
Incidentally, the US is not a signatory to the Convention.
I feel like everytime someone "closes" a section of sea the US sends a carrier group right on through just to prove a point. I'm sure this is different because turkey is a tasty bird often served at Thanksgiving.
No seriously, I’d hate to be in the risk assessment side here. Do you try to provoke an attack by going anyway? So that you have an excuse to respond in full force?
Nobody in power in the world actually wants to respond in full force.