Kremlin prepares Russians for 10-year war with complete destruction of Ukraine - ISW
Kremlin prepares Russians for 10-year war with complete destruction of Ukraine - ISW
Dude you’ve been doing this for 2 years and the front line is still a 30 minute drive from the border.
Who can say what might happen if Trump wins, but while a stalemate followed by a peace agreement where Ukraine still loses Crimea and etc seems possible, a complete military victory over all of Ukraine seems like pure fantasy. Y’all can prepare the Russian people for whatever you want, but if you can’t take the land, it’s not gonna help.
And the Russian army is facing the same problem that Germany and Napoleon faced in their invasion of Ukraine. When you gain territory, unfortunately you only end up with some bombed out towns in Ukraine.
Napoleon tried to blitz all the way to Moscow. He even took the city. But you just end up with a frozen wasteland. Ukraine is only valuable because of the people there. There's nothing else to take.
Remember, this was supposed to be the easy part of his plan. If he conquers and stays, he will face a determined insurgency. If he installs a puppet and leaves, they will be quickly deposed. If he thinks to keep only part, he will have to keep fighting for it.
An insurgency that's had years to store weapons and make plans instead of 3 days.
Yeah, who knows. When Biden stopped sending support for six months, Ukraine had it rough, they were backtracking (they still are one some fronts), lost Avdivka and other fronts. Germany announced they will halve the support, fascism in EU is also rising, which means less support. It's a battle of attrition and if enough support is withdrawn, it doesn't bode well for Ukraine. On the other hand, if there is substantial support for years to come, Russia might have big problems. In any case, a bigger breakthrough on some front might make a huge difference and tip the special operation in one's favor.
Germany announced they will halve the support
No. While that is a popular narrative in media living of enragement bait and doom scrolling, Germany has announced nothing the like. They have a premilinary budget plan with a fixed 4 billion reserved for Ukraine, the exact same amount that was in the preliminary budget last year. That is with a higher budget for their military from which a lot of Ukraine support came directly and with Ukraine now getting 50 billion covered by the interests of Russian money frozen.
Damn and I thought my estimates were bad. Going from 3 days to 10 years is a pretty big difference and that's assuming they can even achieve their objectives in 10 years which seems doubtful.
"When will you be done with the report?" "I guess by next Friday."
Ten years later...
Putin needs to work on his time management skills. I've heard there's a good place in the Hague that can help him with that, it's called ICJ.
some outrageous crazy statement about the war
it's from Medvedev, as usual
Can the press just stop paying attention to him? He doesn't hold any power, he gets to make no decisions, he was chosen to be Putin's seat-warmer in 2008 because he was considered to be a safe choice, with no real ambitions and was extremely easy to reel in. His position on the "security council" means nothing, he was put there specifically so he'd be in a hostile environment, being a random guy between the military, the FSB and the intelligence service. Not that the council itself is much more than a Putin's puppet. He became the biggest hawk as soon as the war started just in case anyone recalls some of his more "liberal" initiatives. In reality, there's only 3 things he's in charge of: a bottle, a shot glass and his telegram account.
Couldn't agree more. Medvedev is just a miserable ex-"liberal" (and is probably now-an-alcoholic) trying to find his place in the Putin's wartime system after his reputation was killed by Putin's "castling" in 2012 and the film "He Is Not Dimon to You" in 2017. Nobody takes him seriously anymore in Russia.
Laughable really. Russia has at most 2 years at the going rate of net depletion before completely running out of armour stores. Thinking you'd last another 8 without tanks, APCs, or artillery is crazy.
IMO this is them trying to manipulate a better peace deal and boy are they going to be disappointed.
Yeah and that would be dragging the whole army to be killed in Ukraine, leaving russia undefended lol.
I think mid 2025 will be the real breaking point, with winter 2025 bringing the hammer down if it havent happened before.
Yeah and that would be dragging the whole army to be killed in Ukraine, leaving russia undefended lol.
But the irony imo is that this wouldn't actually be a huge problem. Who would actively want to attack Russia?
Despite what they constantly claim, Nato really isn't interested in a conflict. And China already gets the resources they want at huge discounts, so why bother with another front when they have set their sights on Taiwan? That only leaves some internal minorities acting up, but it seems to me that those are the same people they are throwing into the meatgrinder that is the current conflict in Ukraine.
I mean, this is Medvedev talking. Anything coming out of his mouth, the only thing you can reasonably do is to mop it up.
What was it? Special Weekend Operation?
"let's go Morty, just a quick ten-year in-and-out military operation"
"Mankind must put an end to war, or war will put an end to mankind" --John F. Kennedy
"In the end, we will remember not the words of our enemies, but the silence of our friends." -- Martin Luther King
Its ok, Trump will end all wars when he gets elected.
Yes, I did nearly crash my car laughing when I heard that.
By pure incompetence and added confusion…
Argumenty i Fakty
That didn't translate well.
"Arguments and Facts". A newspaper name.
Just not a good decade to work for Addidas.
Ah, but in 8 years Russia is going to attack NATO countries I keep hearing here in the EU
They are currently fucking radio signals in Kaliningrad affecting NATO country communications. They have also been found responsible for recent factory fires and localised attacks, not to mention the assassinations on NATO and EU soil.
Having a 10 year plan does not preclude additional actions.
Depends a lot on what NATO does. If Trump pulls out like he says then it could easily happen.
I wouldn't say easily. If the russians were crazy enough to try that they'd find out that EU itself has pretty decent armed forces combined and should they attack on any EU country, let's say Estonia, they'd find out pretty fast on what it means when there's no political bullshit limiting on attacks to the russian soil. One of Putins villas is 30 minutes (give or take) away for handful of countries to pay a visit with a very modern fighter jet. To Moscow that's a bit less.
They just don't have the hardware to protect their troops, command sites, service locations and everything else needed to even attempt anything.