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I've had this discussion before. You might want to do some more research and have sources. I would advise you to look at really good sources about the following points:
- "It’s not “universal” unless/until it’s given to everyone."
- "...would cost the government $2.4 TRILLION, yearly."
- "Even seizing the entirety of every US billionaire’s net worth and cutting defense spending wouldn’t even cover the cost of this UBI for three years"
Your numbers and projected income is way wonky. I'll discuss it when you come back with sources from the studies of UBI and why most experts think they worked being referenced.
I’m not the other person but I’ve had this discussion in work before and people have hit back with the following:
This wouldn’t work because with all these people getting UBI would just mean companies would put prices up to levels making the UBI worthless. For example if the cost of living is $1000 and you give people who need it $1000 then before long the cost of living would rise to $2000.
Now I’m in support of doing more for the average person and taking from corporations but I just don’t know how to argue against their, albeit lacking in actual data, arguments.
If sellers can fix prices so easily they're a cartel. Your whole economy is way fucked in that case so you definately need radical reform of one type or another, UBI is the least of your worries. Paying monopoly prices for everything is your big problem, you do need to get on with effective anti-trust action - or other radical market reform.
Even if no prosecution due to regulatory capture and so on though, a cartel of enough oligopolists in inherently unstable and they have to work hard to keep up the cooperation, it becomes a complex situation but underying it, the first one to cut prices will sell way more units and eat the others market share . This doesn't work all the time in all industries, but general competetive pressure does sometimes work to mediate excess profits in some circumstances.
Now, if you'd picked a broken market like rents and said landlords fix rental prices higher, yes - dysfunctional market, high barriers to entry, no real liquidity, rare transactions, powerful intermediators, weak ill informed buyers; yes such a market probably would benefit from price regulation or increasing social housing provision.
I'd love to see the evidence for the 1:1 happening in practice. I suspect it's someone's perverse-dream, very strong assumptions about universal sellers power and consumers total inability to substitute.
For example if the cost of living is $1000 and you give people who need it $1000 then before long the cost of living would rise to $2000.
You may choose to have a $2000 cost of living, but you would choose that too through a pay raise. You could be empowered to keep $1000 cost of living, and there would be more apartments like "yours" if everyone else is moving up in lifestyle.
UBI gives you more choices. If you think everyone else is passive, just paying what they are told, you can use the opportunity to build more affordable life options for people, including easy access to loans from all of the extra money getting spent.
So when I said cost of living I meant in general and not on an individual basis.
For example $1000 would cover all rent and bills, but then companies or landlords get greedy and raise prices so the cost of living is now $2000 making UBI futile. Rather than an individual increasing their own cost of living. If that makes sense.
Your example cost of living can apply to many people close to poverty line. Whether that is "general" or you is the same.
UBI will cause some inflation. More demand for stuff, quickly, with supply needing to catch up, and better labour bargaining power meaning higher labour costs.
But it is completely unreasonable to say that UBI makes people no better off. None of the money that gets spent or paid in taxes is destroyed. Very significant economic growth occurs. China can keep up with supply if US can't, and we are collectively better off, but the richest are especially better off, with cheaper options for stuff. If housing costs skyrocket, big incentive for builders. You can choose room mates that with UBI can afford to pay. If you don't want/need to work you can move to boonies where costs are lower, also with room mates. UBI lets people afford buying homes, with necessarily good credit from UBI safety net. Group buying easier.
Your fearmongering is not just false, it is an argument for continued power imbalance slavery. Even if your fear was true, we would still be better off through more choices and more power.
This is usual information and highlights I don’t have a great grasp on economics. Thanks for providing some more info.
I am not intentionally fear mongering and am just trying to recite objections that I have come up against when discussing this with colleagues etc.
I am for UBI.
This wouldn’t work because with all these people getting UBI would just mean companies would put prices up to levels making the UBI worthless. For example if the cost of living is $1000 and you give people who need it $1000 then before long the cost of living would rise to $2000.
It's the guaranteed part that makes a difference. If they know they can at least buy toiletries or whatever with the money.
I don't understand the cost of living part? Are they raising the prices randomly? Is it because more people are buying stuff, so there's more demand? Then more jobs are created. It's a very vague question.
Apologies for being vague, it’s been a while since I’ve had this discussion.
Perhaps I am misunderstanding UBI as being linked to the cost of living, in that the UBI would provide for people’s basic needs and if they wanted more than that then they could find a job to supplement their income or maybe it’s one or the other.
I think what they were getting at ok the raising prices is that because there is more spending power then that means corps would like to get their hands on this extra money by raising prices.
I’ll try and broach this topic again and get their objections and bring it up next time I see this discussion.
No worries, I'm guessing they won't be able to respond either. It sounds like talking points they were given by a podcast or something, and they didn't really look into it. Whenever people start spouting those kind of things, digging deeper into their thoughts will usually tell you pretty quickly how much they believe or are repeating.
You might want to do some more research and have sources.
I brought up a handful of VERY easily-verifiable, non-controversial data points, and just did some simple math. But, I guess, for the extremely lazy:
- $1000/mo x 12 months in a year = $12000/yr
- Number of working-age (16-64) Americans = ~210 million (I rounded down to 200 and counted working-age only (i.e. no elderly/retired), two things that make my argument WEAKER)
- $12 thousand x 200 million = $2.4 trillion
- Combined net worth of US billionaires is ~4.5 trillion. But hey, I found a much higher estimate that puts it a bit above 6 trillion. That gets you almost a whole extra year!
- Latest US defense spending budget is $850 billion
Assuming stripping defense down to zero (which again, is an absolutely absurd hypothetical made for the sake of argument, and making my argument AS WEAK AS POSSIBLE) and applying the entire $850 billion to the UBI price tag, you're left with a yearly cost of $1.55 trillion. And even using the higher estimate of $6 trillion from the billionaires, 1.55 goes into 6 less than 4 times.
The only thing 'wonky' is your refusal to accept mathematical reality.
P.S. Telling me to "look at really good sources" for 'it's not universal if it's not given to everyone' made me laugh pretty hard.
I’ll discuss it when you come back with sources from the studies of UBI and why most experts think they worked being referenced
Where do you think the money goes when people get them? They don't "dissappear", so the "three years" you get from your billionairs in your example is you not understanding economy, even if you math is correct as you describe it.
The money people get would circulate and be taxable, so the government will get most of that money back to repeat giving out more the next month.
Also, your example I only using billionaires wealth instead if increasing taxes that more people are able to afford now that they have this UBI. The ones who have more than they need in income would be taxed harder, as they earn enough that they don't need the UBI, but since it's universal, they still receive.