Honor Mode Miss Chance Apophenia
Honor Mode Miss Chance Apophenia
I have growing doubts of the statistical randomness of attacks in honor mode with karmic dice disabled. I'm talking about multi-attack with action surge completely whiffing when the chance to hit is 75% or greater and rogues with advantage that couldn't hit the broadside of a barn. (1/4)^2 is 6.25% so across hundreds of rounds it's going to happen many times, but fuck if it isn't disheartening seeing everyone and their mother dodging like a windwalking Muhammad Ali on coke.
It's not even as if it's a soft way of making the game more difficult because while enemy chance to hit isn't shown, my characters appear just as overpowered when it comes to dodging (usually...).
This belief runs afoul of every gambler's fallacy, but all the same I'm looking to commiserate with others seeking the golden dice.
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The number of times I've gotten two or even three critical failures/misses in a row is mind boggling. That said I've watched the NPCs do it as well, so there is a semblance of fairness. You're right that the statistics feel off, but as is always the case, our minds are going to focus on these outliers without recalling all the many times the dice fell right in line with expectations.
I do swear that a 50% chance to hit with a Sacred Flame consistently feels more like a 15% chance.
I do swear that a 50% chance to hit with a Sacred Flame consistently feels more like a 15% chance.
Bro. I swear Sacred Flame and Guiding Bolt both actually roll d8s instead of d20s. 90% with advantage and you know that Guiding Bolt is either missing or critically hitting.
Those back to back critical failures remind me of the time I tried to lockpick a chest with advantage and tons of bonuses with the final result still being a natural 1... a 1/400 chance. At least it wasn't when trying to recruit Shadowheart on the nautiloid like I've heard has happened to others.
natural 1
"What's that?" says my halfling thief.
75% chance to hit with advantage (I know percent includes advantage in the calculation) and I wiff three attacks in a row. I check the rolls and I've gotten nothing higher than a 4. On 6 separate rolls?? Come on...
Sacred flame has a dex save. That's why it never hits.
Isn't that calculated into the percentage, though? Grr.
I think the percentages are fake. Either that or my dice are cursed.