Economists predict US inflation will keep cooling and the economy can avoid a recession
Economists predict US inflation will keep cooling and the economy can avoid a recession
A survey shows most business economists think the U.S. economy could avoid a recession next year, even if the job market ends up weakening under pressure brought by high interest rates.
NEW YORK (AP) — Most business economists think the U.S. economy could avoid a recession next year, even if the job market ends up weakening under the weight of high interest rates, according to a survey released Monday.
Only 24% of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics said they see a recession in 2024 as more likely than not. The 38 surveyed economists come from such organizations as Morgan Stanley, the University of Arkansas and Nationwide.
Such predictions imply the belief that the Federal Reserve can pull off the delicate balancing act of slowing the economy just enough through high interest rates to get inflation under control, without snuffing out its growth completely.
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High rates work to slow inflation by making borrowing more expensive and hurting prices for stocks and other investments. The combination typically slows spending and starves inflation of its fuel. So far, the job market has remained remarkably solid despite high interest rates, and the unemployment rate sat at a low 3.9% in October.
Does this mean rent will get easier to pay, or am I still boned?
Well, according to the article:
Of course, economists are only expecting price increases to slow, not to reverse, which is what it would take for prices for groceries, haircuts and other things to return to where they were before inflation took off during 2021.
Rent and housing are under a supply crunch, unless the population stops growing, or construction speed doubles, nothing is going to drop prices.
I mean, legislation could easily drop prices. Our government reigning in unjustified price hikes would absolutely stop the unjustified price hikes.
The rich people already buying homes now would just buy the new homes. Even brand new homes in my area are selling for almost half a million when just before Covid they'd be like 280k or 320k. People not to stop pretending like housing a supply issue and not a corporations-and-rich-people-buying-everything-up issue. When new construction comes up with these ridiculous prices, the people who already own multiple properties just buy it up because they can already easily afford to. All you need is to be able to get a few properties and after that the money makes itself which is why all of the sudden everyone's interested in real estate the last few years. Builders don't care about it because there are still companies and people able to pay these obnoxious prices. Don't even get me started on how everyone thinks they're a genius for realizing how profitable buying homes to use as Airbnbs is.
Every economists was predicting recession a few months back. They have an accuracy rate less than horoscopes
Tbf, the act of predicting a recession can change the outcome, since the economy is just people reacting to things with money.
If everyone is expecting their houses to fall down from thin walls, so they start adding panels to their walls, suddenly the newly sturdy walls arent falling down anymore.
This isn't even remotely true, why is it being upvoted?
Maybe because it is true and no one wants to hear government economists bullshit about how everything is fine when everything is not fucking fine.
So sick of economist lying crap. Telling us we can't have universal healthcare and we can't get rid of student loan debt but we have to give free money to banks and trade with countries that have slavery.
Any witches I can follow on Mastodon who provide stock analysis???
No idea. Just buy and hold index funds and you will be fine.
It should be clearly stated that recession is a technical term with a specific meaning, not a general term for a rough economy. Not all tough economic times are recessions. It is not at all a contradiction for lots of people to be struggling and for a recession to not be happening. This is not economists saying that everything is hunky dory and that people have no reason to complain, only that the specific phenomenon that is a recession is not occurring right now.
Edit: Just to put it explicitly, a recession is generally defined as two or more successive quarters in which GDP contracts rather than growing.
I am unemployed and have been for many months. I have never had issues finding a job, but finding one lately has been impossible. I know of 3 others in the same boat as I. I think that a recession is inevitable at this point. Lucky for me, I have other sources of income. I did have to drastically cut back spending, however.
There is definitely something going on lately. I'm always looking for better jobs on indeed, professional recruiting services etc, trying to improve my situation.
In the last 4 months its been seemingly impossible to even get a response, and I know I'm more than qualified for these positions I'm applying to, and I've never had an issue before, even during severe economic downturns.
Same.
This is a nightmare scenario for me. What are the other sources of income, if you don't mind me asking?
Website advertising and subscription revenue for websites I have owned for years. Spouse income as well.
Here's my gripe with economists. Even if this wasn't true, wouldn't be in the best interest of the economy to lie about it so the market doesn't get spooked and end up doing things that would make inflation worse?
What other 'science' has that nifty feature in it?
You can make money on the economy going up or down, so there's generally economists predicting both. There's also a lot of economists that love to be the one to predict a recession, so they pretty much always predict one.
Regular medical science, it is called the placebo effect. It only works a bit. Not like you are going to regrow a limb, more like if you had a 40% of getting better on your own you now have a 50%.
Truth is economists can't predict shit and recessions happen based on numbers not based on feelings. We can't click our heels together and wish our way to a better world.
A lot of the "scientists" that get laughed out of their field but get their Netflix "documentary" deal seem to use this neat trick.
They're particularly good at starting with a conclusion then shoehorning in a bad analysis with uncompelling evidence.
My initial thoughts exactly.
Economists predict that now that the rich and ruling class have had a chance to get even rocher even faster, the rest of us will be allowed to catch our breaths just long enough to avoid sweeping reforms and revolutions the next time they pull this bullshit!
They found the sweet spot between oops we broke it again and these poor people seem to be actually accumulating savings
Nah we've just become too dependent
Wow we went through nearly 3 years of recession start tomorrow and now it's not even going to happen. Even weather reporters are better.
Plenty of economists have been saying that avoiding a significant recession has been entirely possible. A recession is generally defined by at least two successive quarters of GDP decline, and while this did technically happen in 2022, the second quarter was only -0.6%, and the following quarter was back up to +2.7%.
It really needs to be stressed that not all bad economic circumstances are recessions. That's a very specific thing.
Weather doesnt read the weather report and change itself in response.
People read economics reports and spend differently in response.
Start giving the northern wind a newspaper, and you will see the weather report falter.
Just in time for a tumultuous election
The poor and middle class are sowing, the rich are reaping
"After a historic run-up in inflation, Americans are now starting to see something they haven’t in three years: deflation,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“To be sure, deflation—that is, falling prices—is largely confined to appliances, furniture, used cars and other goods. Economywide deflation, when prices of most goods and services continuously fall, isn’t in the cards.”
“But economists say goods prices likely have further to fall, which will ease inflation’s return to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, perhaps as early as the second half of next year.”
alls that matters is housing, food, and energy.