Timeline of how economy is going to be as AI progresses

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The original was posted on /r/singularity by /u/AutomaticVisit1543 on 2023-06-27 20:05:58+00:00.

Which of these is more likely to happen as AI advances and justify why :

1. Efficiency leading to Less employee => less consumer => downward economic spiral
2. Efficiency leading to huge productivity => more jobs => more consumption => upward economic spiral
3. Huge cost cutting => very cheap services/goods + more discretionary spending => flat growth of corporations since more products will be sold but revenue per product would be less
4. Ultra cheap services => huge job loss in services sector, however people employed in manufacturing/goods won't be impacted and will have more discretionary income before eventually goods also become ultra cheap

I would love your insight on how things would pan out. Please also add if things will be different in developing countries viz a viz developed countries.

My personal opinion is :

High efficiency => drastic reduction in no. of high paying jobs and increase in no. of very low paying jobs => sort of dissatisfaction among educated /talented class, leading to collapse of ivy leagues ; Increase in number of unicorns having single digit employees.

Unless you are Ilya Sutskever or John Carmack, you are really going to be in trouble. What is your opinion