I think the consensus is generally that he would replace Ricciardo because Ricciardo would replace Checo. There's really no reason Daniel wouldn't be fast tracked into the Red Bull seat unless he truly has lost his speed and his F1 career comes to an end.
Whatever it is that Red Bull saw during his testing and sim time, they seem to believe that the Daniel Ricciardo of old will make a rapid return. If they don't see that then they probably still replace Checo, but the replacement conversation becomes more complicated.
It would seem a cruel double standard if they were to give a returning driver who had lost his form chance after chance to show he's still worthy of the works team when historically they haven't given their own young drivers that opportunity.
I think the consensus is generally that he would replace Ricciardo because Ricciardo would replace Checo. There’s really no reason Daniel wouldn’t be fast tracked into the Red Bull seat unless he truly has lost his speed and his F1 career comes to an end.
There is currently really no reason why Daniel Ricciardo should get a race seat at all. As a personality I really like him but he has shown nearly nothing pace-wise. His current injury is also self-inflicted and should therefore be counted on the minus list because he overlooked yellow flags and didn't brake early enough because of that (and didn't take his hands off the steering wheel).
I don't know what to think about Lawson as a character: to me he comes off as a bit arrogant but from what I've heard from the media the feedback about him in the paddock is that of a soberly focused guy. Obviously he doesn't hold a candle in charisma but that should not be what a team should primarily look in a racing driver.
PS: Reminder which two guys were team mates in 2021 in DTM
The only seat still available next year is Sargent, but Williams seem committed to him. Probably looking like another year in Super Formula for Lawson.
With Tsunoda also committed to AT I don't think Lawson has much hope of getting a seat for the next year or two.
The only chance he has at getting an AT seat is if Ricciardo or Tsunoda move up to RB. At this point he's probably got even odds of back-filling Checo's replacement (if it happens) or moving to a non-RB team like Williams.