China's 1.4 billion population isn't enough to fill the country's empty homes, former official says
China's 1.4 billion population isn't enough to fill the country's empty homes, former official says
A former Chinese official's dramatic comments are a rare critique of the country's struggling housing market, which has been in crisis since 2021.
16 millions vacant houses across the US, not counting the empty offices buildings. 11 millions houses empty in Europe. In both cases enough vacancy to houses the homeless population and more.
A big thing is where are those homes located? Are they near social services? Are they near jobs? Skills training? Is putting a homeless person in them with no income going to allow said homeless person to build a life?
Most homeless go to cities where there are social services, and lots of people around so they can beg for an income. Most empty houses are not in cities.
Yes, many of those homes are located in or near cities. Of course more public transportation is needed.
Have these homeless people been offered houses in small towns and they refused? Feels like a lot of assumptions are being made here
That's a good thing, right? It means there is no homelessness in the entire country, right?
Correct
Not so great if large aspects of your economic growth is tied to the real estate market. Theoretically the value of property is tied in some way to scarcity. If there is an abundance of housing, then there's not a real reason for property value to mature.
If the rate of maturity is less than the rate of this inflation, then you are no longer creating an investment, you are creating debt. If a property investment group, a private bank, or state bank has over invested too heavily in developing the real estate market....... there's a pretty good chance that it's going to have a hard time remaining in solvency.
This is an example of why a lot of people accuse the CCP of giving up on communism after the Deng reforms. Satiating the needs of the market too often conflicts with the needs of the people.
Theoretically in a planned economy you would be correct. There's no motivation too build too many homes, nor is there is there a scarcity of homes. Both scenario are conditions of a capitalist market reacting to the perceived needs of the consumer or the market.
Real estate speculators make too many buildings, property values fall, people can buy homes, and everyone wins. Right? Oh, except for real estate speculators, but who cares about them anyway.
In a planned economy, it wouldn't be unexpected to over-build. In fact, it perfectly makes sense, same as we would over produce a small surplus of anything. Housing isn't ten I to create, and so having reserves ready for use when they're needed in the future is a good thing. It may be bad from capitalism perspective, because you aren't getting a great return on the investment yet. But from a planned economy perspective it's good.
... isn't that the point?
Right?! Love how the article frames it as a bad thing because it doesn't make sense from a capitalist standpoint.
It's a problem for people who indebted themselves to buy those homes with a valuation based on scarcity. Also a problem for the real estate Chinese companies, sector which represents a quarter of Chinese economy.
Sounds to me like China is trying to solve both of those problems by lowering property scarcity - if this stays controlled it will make properties cheaper so people don't need to acquire as much debt and it will shrink the real estate sector. Since this housing is built through centralized control and not a market, it should be totally under control.
Obviously something unexpected could happen that blindsides the Party, but it looks like politics is in command and everything is proceeding as expected.
Meanwhile, the rest of the world has a severe housing crisis and there is a global shortage of concrete sand aggregate.
If only they could send some to Canada. Probably the best ones, nobody's buying a house without insulation or functioning taps here.
This is why Canada has a housing crisis.
This is the best summary I could come up with:
China's real-estate struggles rose to prominence in 2021, when industry giant Evergrande became the most indebted company in the world and defaulted.
At the time, there were at least 65 million vacant properties in the country, which would have been enough to house the entire population of France, Insider previously reported.
City's like Shenyang, in the country's northeast, were envisaged as new hot spots for China's ultra-rich, with flashy European-style villas.
Today, farmers have taken over the ghost town, plowing the land and letting cattle roam free around the empty mansions.
The government has since enacted efforts to move some of the country's top schools to the region, which has led to an influx of families and high-achieving students, bringing the population and real-estate prices up, Japanese publication Nikkei Asia reported in 2021.
Despite these efforts, Inner Mongolia, the autonomous region of China where Ordos is located, is still one of the slowest-growing areas of the country, per the report.
The original article contains 420 words, the summary contains 160 words. Saved 62%. I'm a bot and I'm open source!
Good bot!
And yet China keeps populating these "ghost towns" over and over again. Almost like the term is nothing more than a xenophobic, alarmist misnomer.
If this was five years ago, I'd agree with you. But the Chinese national government has been clamping down on new construction for the past few years. China is also experiencing almost no population growth.
There was always going to be a time for China to stop building housing because the supply would eventually outstrip demand. Now seems to be near that time.
Holy shit everyone I think the MC's lie from Goodbye, Lenin is about to come true!