Russian Academy of Sciences says climate change is caused regional variations in the ozone layer as the Southern and Eastern Pacific oceans have cooled.
Russian Academy of Sciences says climate change is caused regional variations in the ozone layer as the Southern and Eastern Pacific oceans have cooled.
Personally I think if China and other AES states agree with this, we should join in as well. Right now I read these articles with healthy scepticism and I am curious on your views. These are the ones that I found interesting. Russia may present an alternate take this December, an interesting time to be alive.
Edit: I shouldn't have started with such a hollow article. The dismissal of increased natural disasters like hurricanes, floods, and droughts due to warming is not something I support. Here's something better that shows that the current model fails to explain the strong cooling trend in the Southern Ocean and East Pacific.
https://thebulletin.org/2022/12/whats-wrong-with-these-climate-models/
Take, for example, ocean warming. Despite criticisms from climate change skeptics, global climate models have accurately predicted rising average sea surface temperatures, which are extremely important to predicting the intensity of climate change. But observations in recent decades show that changes in sea surface temperatures vary greatly by region. That geographic variation suggests that end of century global warming may be less severe than most climate models suggest. These observations do not invalidate climate modeling, but they do highlight the importance of regular comparisons between climate models and the real-world observations they aspire to reflect.
She adds that observed trends show a strong cooling trend in the Eastern Pacific and Southern Ocean, which goes against what the models predicted.
https://www.voltairenet.org/article219438.html
^ Explains that the Russian Academy of Sciences has a different account on climate change that will be presented this year. The IPCC has a monopoly on climate science, the IPCC was founded by Thatcher as a reaction to striking coal workers and is a political organization.
https://www.voltairenet.org/article163379.html Ecology of war
https://www.voltairenet.org/article164791.html Market ecology
https://www.voltairenet.org/article164792.html Financial ecology
A cold climate petro state like Russia has a lot of incentives to present alternative explanations. They don't want the world to burn less oil and could do with some more warm weather anyway.
Also, are we really pretending the West actually bases policies on it's own climate change science anyway? To present carbon as a conspiracy by the West would contradict the reality that the West continues to emit carbon.
I'm skeptical.
A cold climate petro state like Russia has a lot of incentives to present alternative explanations. They don’t want the world to burn less oil and could do with some more warm weather anyway.
Yeah, that' why I am waiting for some confirmation.
To present carbon as a conspiracy by the West would contradict the reality that the West continues to emit carbon.
What's the contradiction in that? They can emit CO2 while complaining about China doing the same.
CO2 emissions as a greenhouse gas create a contradiction between immediate productivity and future productivity. Why would they promote a theory that would hurt economic productivity for an imaginary threat to future productivity? There's no good reason to invent this theory from nothing when they could have invented a different theory that wouldn't hurt their own ability to exploit natural resources and produce energy and burn fuel. They could have invented a different lie that wouldn't hurt their own interests and vassals.
It only makes sense as real science, because the West is being forced to reckon with a real threat to its own future.
Yeah, climate change will open shipping ports in the Arctic for Russia. I think this is why Trump wanted to buy Greenland from Denmark. (Just a theory)
It'll open a lot of Arctic drilling and mining and fishing opportunities too - I don't think Russia wholly benefits, but they would be hurt less than almost everyone else which is almost the same thing.
There are no alternate explanations because the explanations that we have make sense. Unless you have reasons to be skeptical I don't see the point of exercising skepticism for the sake of it. You can wait for the grand reveal of this alternate theory at the COP if you want but you are likely going to be disappointed.
Edit: my bad. Looks like the theory has already been publicised according to the linked telegram post. I can't assess the merits of it though.
The current theory does make sense but there are parts of the world that are cooling despite that being contrary to modeling.
Even the mainstream majority believe that the climate models are wrong as cooling has been measured in the Pacific.
The Russian theory attempts to account for this, although like you mentioned, I am not sure how good it is.
This is an article from the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists:
https://thebulletin.org/2022/12/whats-wrong-with-these-climate-models/
Take, for example, ocean warming. Despite criticisms from climate change skeptics, global climate models have accurately predicted rising average sea surface temperatures, which are extremely important to predicting the intensity of climate change. But observations in recent decades show that changes in sea surface temperatures vary greatly by region. That geographic variation suggests that**** end of century global warming may be less severe than most climate models suggest. ****These observations do not invalidate climate modeling, but they do highlight the importance of regular comparisons between climate models and the real-world observations they aspire to reflect.
**>She adds that observed trends show a strong cooling trend in the Eastern Pacific and Southern Ocean, which goes against what the models predicted. **
I will just add that the no climate emergency declaration is most likely a nothingburger. From its signatories almost none of them are climate scientists. The two Nobel laureates that have signed it are washed up physicists.
As you said the Russian theory does not invalidate current models. If it is correct it will augment existing models so that predictions conform to real world observations.
If you agree with the the first paragraph then you will agree that there is no reason to be sceptical of climate change.
You can find a group of people willing to sign anything for money or attention. 1600 "scientists" worldwide doesn't really mean much. Especially since the question becomes: how many of them are climate scientists? A physicist might have a good grasp of an atom, but that doesn't mean they automatically understand every other scientific discipline. It's like saying a plumber can easily do a mechanic's job because they both use wrenches.
A lot of bad faith groups use tactics like this, finding an impressive sounding number of people to support whatever thing they claim, but when you look closer, you find that none of the people (or very few) actually have the credentials necessary to make an informed decision on the matter, sometimes they'll even just lie and add fake names or fake doctorates to try and pad the numbers.