Trump has taken the lead over Harris for first time in 538 forecast.
Trump has taken the lead over Harris for first time in 538 forecast.
538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.
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Still, a word of caution: You might be tempted to make a big deal about our forecast “flipping” to Trump, but it’s important to remember that a 52-in-100 chance for Trump is not all that different from a 58-in-100 chance for Harris — both are little better than a coin flip for the leading candidate. While Trump has undeniably gained some ground over the past couple weeks, a few good polls for Harris could easily put her back in the “lead” tomorrow. Our overall characterization of the race — that it’s a toss-up — remains unchanged.
I think it’s funny posts like this get downvoted when it’s just polls and statistics.
I hope it will get upvoted so more people see it and get inspired to vote!
I'm under the impression most of the people down voting would still be claiming Joe Biden is 30 years old.
Who cares what impression you're under? tRumps the current candidate with dementia. He so old and weak the polls don't matter
the polls don’t matter
they should matter to Harris, who has the power to abandon some Biden baggage weighing her down. Like those pesky war enabling weapons shipments. But hey, if she wants to throw the election then theres nothing we voters can do to stop her. Just remember who had the chance and chose not take it, come nov 4. Its up to her now.
Polls only matter when they appear to help but not hurt? Isn't that just playing politics?
What does this race have to do with Joe Biden?
What? You really have no clue that Kamala was coronated since Biden dropped out?
....what?