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How many of those registered Democrats were in a state that was +10% for either of the candidates?
Local and state races are also important and you should vote in them even if your state is a lock, but if you know for a fact your vote for president won't matter why cast it? To give the Democrats an even greater sense of smugness at winning the popular vote despite losing the election?
I mean ignoring the fact that you already mentioned about local and state races being immensely important, unbelievably important, there is something to be said of the notion of a president's winning an election despite an overwhelming majority voting against him. That's not nothing. If only for the moral message to the people of what a corrupt system we have. But also the Practical effects of it. The pressure that puts on politicians the pressure that puts on the parties the pressure that puts on legislation, the pressure that puts on future campaigning and financing, it all matters. In politics everything is connected.
If only for the moral message to the people of what a corrupt system we have.
I would think that would make people even less likely to vote, since they think it doesn't do anything.
The pressure that puts on politicians the pressure that puts on the parties the pressure that puts on legislation, the pressure that puts on future campaigning and financing, it all matters.
I don't believe this. Both Bush II and Trump acted like they had some kind of massive mandate despite losing the popular vote. Maybe if the shoe was on the other foot and it was Democrats winning without getting the most votes they'd be introspective enough to change tactics, but Republicans don't give a fuck.
https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president
The difference in the 2020 election was about 7 million votes. Even with the electoral college, another 40 million votes not impacting the 2024 election would be statistically improbable. Biden would win in an unprecedented landslide.
We know what states have been swing states before. We don't know which states will be swing states in 2024 with 100% accuracy. If enough people didn't vote, any state would become a swing state. If everyone who has said "your vote for president won't matter" or equivalent voted we would see radically different results in US elections.
If all those votes were in already blue states it wouldn't have changed anything.
But I'm making the mistake of assuming voters are acting rationally and understand the rules of the game, which they don't. They're not going to, like I did, not vote for the presidential candidate because I keep an eye on the polls and know that it's going 2:1 to someone but continue to vote down ballot. They're just not voting because reasons.
We'd all be well-served to stop thinking of voters as rational people.
If all those votes were in already blue states it wouldn’t have changed anything.
That's ridiculously unlikely. Also, what's a blue state now may be a swing state on election day.
They’re not going to, like I did, not vote for the presidential candidate because I keep an eye on the polls and know that it’s going 2:1 to someone but continue to vote down ballot.
Polls gauge approval, which is only an approximation for who people are going to vote for. The polls aren't supposed to be a guide for who to vote for. Vote for democracy and against fascism.
We’d all be well-served to stop thinking of voters as rational people.
It's better to think of people as self-interested. Being self-interested does not imply a person will necessarily act or even know how to act in their own self-interest. If life was a game of perfect of information the vast majority of people would make decisions that were actually in their own self-interest. As opposed to real life where global temperatures and fascism are on the rise. It's not for a lack of rationality that people are sleep walking into fascism. It's a lack of knowledge and critical thinking skills. edit: typo
There was no universe where Clinton was losing MD in 2016. It went 2:1 for her. My not voting for her had zero effect.
And it is a lack of rationality. Otherwise Trump couldn't get elected dogcatcher.
It's the universe where enough people didn't vote. If everyone who says stuff like this voted, we wouldn't have had Donald Trump as president the first time.
People are incredibly rational. We can put people on the moon and send rovers to Mars. We are working on fusion reactors and quantum computers. Humanity is really good at rationality. People are really uniformed and lack critical thinking skills. Those things have to be learned.
MAGA supporters think they are acting in their own self-interest. They lack true information and the critical thinking skills to challenge the false information that they've been given. Given that they have been misled they then act in a rational way to their own destruction. Trump's supporters think he's going to make America great again. So they vote for him. They don't check their zip code. They don't check the polls. They are convinced that a second Trump presidency is in their own self-interest. So they do the rational thing of showing up and voting for him.