How Trump's deny-everything strategy could hurt him at sentencing
How Trump's deny-everything strategy could hurt him at sentencing
Donald Trump has had plenty to say since his hush money trial conviction last week. What he hasn’t done is utter any variation of the words that might benefit him most come sentencing time next month: “I’m sorry.”
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Add to this, he blew off doing his probation report. Some people say it was because of the drug test. That's also a negative factor in sentencing.
Do you have a source for that? I know people were speculating he might not show up, but I haven't seen reporting confirming one way or another.
He hasn't submitted to it YET, but there's still time.
https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-may-blow-off-his-pre-sentence-probation-interview-2024-5
That’s also a negative factor in sentencing.
If it were anyone but Trump, I'd agree with you.
But this is Trump. Even Merchan has allowed Trump to play by a completely different set of rules (violating the gag order 10 times and still not being thrown in jail, as an example). He has also been openly hesitant about the idea of throwing Trump in jail.
Trump not participating was predicted from day one, and I doubt even Merchan expected otherwise. With that said, I still think the chances of him seeing any jail time are all but nonexistent. He will either get a non-incarceration sentence, house arrest, or probation (most likely). And even if he does get probation, there is no chance that he is going to be forced to report to some NY probation officer. Most likely, he'll end up somehow striking some deal where one of his lackey lawyers shows up on his behalf and pinky swears that he is being a good boy, and after about the 14th or 15th probation violation, he'll receive his first warning that further violations may someday make them consider the possibility of having a meeting about it.
But this is Trump. Even Merchan has allowed Trump to play by a completely different set of rules (violating the gag order 10 times and still not being thrown in jail, as an example). He has also been openly hesitant about the idea of throwing Trump in jail.
During the trial. The argument I have seen for why Trump has gotten away with playing by completely different rules is that if the judge or prosecution makes absolutely any wrong step in procedure, the kind of lawyers Trump hires will jump on that and can push for all sorts of ways to shut down the case on procedural grounds (mistrial? Forgive me I'm not an expert), and based on the nature of this case, that would shut it down for good. But the trial is now over, so that argument should no longer apply. The options on the table for Trump's lawyers interfering with the sentencing are significantly reduced compared to trial, so the judge should be able to go for a really harsh sentencing, particularly for the reasons in this article. We'll see if the procedural mistrial argument really was the explanation, or just another rationalization of the 2-tiered justice system.
Well I think the judge usually considers the defendant's job. And that is where he'll not get house arrest or community service... his lawyers will correctly argue that Trump is campaigning for his job as president, so is expected to be in different states almost daily and or travelling a lot for at least 6 more months. Thus it would be an unfair sentencing if it limited him to earn a buck.
Same will be argued for prison time but ofcourse that is a whole different ballgame and a judge could finalize that sentence but put it on a delay for like 2025.
I don't think the rules change magicaly because it's Trump
Maybe not, but the application of the rules certainly seems to change.
Fact is the rules of the criminal courts process didn't change, nor the application of those rules.
Like contempt and gag order violations?
He was fined repeatedly for those at the maximum amount possible
He received a warning after ten violations, which would land a normal schmuck like you or me in jail several times over.
Never mind that a fine for a wealthy person is not justice.
One of the purposes of being thrown in jail for contempt is so there is a method to punish the wealthy when monetary fines aren't a deterrent. Fining Trump $10k for ten different violations is a prime example of this -- Fining him $10k is like fining you and me a nickel. It's not a deterrent in any form. Especially in a case like this where any one of those violations could have cost someone their lives, he should have been thrown in jail.
And there's not a chance in hell that anyone else would still be walking free after violating a court order ten fucking times.
They certainly appear to.
IMO the judge was fair and did not give too much deference to the defendant.
How many times do you think you could violate a gag order before you get thrown in jail?
Your interpretation may not be the same as the judge. It's always judgement call on their part, and it turned out to be a min9r issue after ruling.
I wouldn't call stochastic terrorism "minor."
Let's review what happened. The gag order was placed on Trump. Per procedure, the prosecution informed the judge that Trump had broken it. The judge held a special hearing on this and asked the prosecutor for curative measures suggested. The judge agreed to this cure and fined Trump. The Trump tonned it down for a time allowing the end of the trail. That's how a gag order is supposed to work.
The fairest thing might be a suspended sentence, if that's allowed in NY. The judge could impose a 3-6 month sentence, but suspend it pending completion of 2-4 years' probation. If Trump complies with the terms of the probation, he's formally let off the hook for the jail time.
I don't think any judge wants to be the one who throws a Presidential Candidate in jail, and this leaves that decision solely to Trump. And for all we talk that he probably wants to go to jail because he can get more Martyr points, in this case the jail would be Rikers Island, which is a horrible place. Trump probably has the low-down from Weissleberg about how bad it is there, even in isolation. If given that choice, Trump might actually comply with probation.
I don't think any judge wants to be the one who throws a Presidential Candidate in jail
The political backlash would be difficult, but a judge being able to state "in my courtroom no one, NO ONE, is above the law" would be a great career thing.
Merchan allowed it, yes, but the prosecutors never asked for jail for his contempt charges. Trump also received a warning at his hearing where he was found in contempt and afterwards did comply (technically).