The Real Reason No One Is Giving Biden Credit for How Good the Economy Is Right Now
The Real Reason No One Is Giving Biden Credit for How Good the Economy Is Right Now
Sharp and sustained economic criticism from Biden's ostensible allies established a narrative of failure that has proved alarmingly resistant to reality.
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Well substantial growth in Average terms at least. Per Capita is the literal Average, total divided by population. Which is why we talk about medians and modes. Now finding a mode is hilarious, much less for each year. But median is actually pretty available. When even the Fed can't make the line go up, you know there's a problem.
Here's the Fed showing a 15 percent gap in inflation and wages up to 2022. Median Income / Inflation Consumer Price
Why do you want to use household / family income instead of individual income? Median personal income in constant dollars is independent of any confounding factors and doesn't show the same drop; it shows no change at all.
And yes, I could see this being consistent with what I was talking about. I actually already sent you data points (the link text is "fell by 5%") showing the 10th, 50th (i.e. median), and 90th percentiles, which showed -1% change in real income at the 50th percentile. The census bureau numbers show +0.01% instead at the 50th percentile, but pretty similar.
All of that is consistent with a boost for the lowest earners, which is what I've been saying this entire time. "Most of that growth happened at the lowest-wage end of the scale" is how I phrased it.
Because until that data says IRS, it's far easier to collect household income, and far more applicable to things like rent and grocery costs. It doesn't matter if one person's income goes up, if the household income has gone down.
It doesn't matter if one person's income goes up
...
I'm comfortable ending the conversation here
Dunno what else to tell you man, but that's why so much is measured in household. And it's not hard to create that situation either. One person gets promotion and the other person loses their Covid tax stimulus. And honestly anything for 2023 numbers is still preliminary. The final reports for 2023 don't get published until the summer.
You said that wages had gone down because of inflation from previous years
Then when we looked at that, and determined it wasn't true, you said average doesn't count and we need to look at the median
Then when we broke it down into percentiles and showed that the median income was steady and income compared with inflation was going up at the bottom end of the pay scale, you started saying it needed to be by household instead of by individual
The average low-income person is now making more than they used to. They can buy more at the grocery store than they could even pre-Covid. To me, that is economic progress.
I think when you're 0 for 3, you don't get to keep the goalposts that you've now moved to the 4th location based on whatever logic you're using to justify income going up only matters if it's per household. You can think what you like about it though.
Then when we looked at that, and determined it wasn’t true, you said average doesn’t count and we need to look at the median
No you tried some bullshit article with bad data. I showed you the charts they should have used. And explained that the average is heavily skewed because of high earners. That makes it a bad measure. I dare you to find an actual Economist arguing we should be releasing the Average instead of the Median.
Then when we broke it down into percentiles and showed that the median income was steady and income compared with inflation was going up at the bottom end of the pay scale, you started saying it needed to be by household instead of by individual
You showed old data. And According to the Census 2022 Report, those gains are gone. We did actually decrease the Gini for the first time since 2007. Then we undid it. "However, the post-tax Gini index was 3.2% higher due to substantial declines in post-tax income among lower-income households."
And yes. We measure by household because that's how people live. Unless your prescription for financial troubles is to tell Grandma it's time for her kill herself.
The average low-income person is now making more than they used to. They can buy more at the grocery store than they could even pre-Covid. To me, that is economic progress.
You never showed anything to prove this. And the BLS Preliminary Reports for 2023 don't paint much of a rosier picture. Production and Non-Supervisory employees broke even with CPI-U in 2023.
The deal here is I do not have the time, mental power, or inclination, to teach you statistics in economics on a forum. There are free classes available online that are at your own pace. And saying I'm moving the goalposts is hilarious. You're the one who keeps looking for cherrypicked data to support your conclusions. I don't have goalposts except, Inflation still sucks. 5 years later, 10 years later, 50 years later. Wake me up when Biden comes out and says we need (checks inflation calculator) a $12.37 minimum wage.
No you tried some bullshit article with bad data. I showed you the charts they should have used.
Not sure who you're trying to fool here; I think it's pretty much just you and me at this point. You know (or you should) that the numbers I sent you were from your own sources (OECD and the St. Louis Fed respectively). You can accept or not the explanation I gave for why I chose different charts in those sources... but just moving the goalposts around instead of addressing it head-on when that happens doesn't leave me with a real good impression of your goal in the overall conversation.
All the data we've seen actually paints a pretty consistent picture of a single coherent world; there aren't, like, big contradictions between different sources. It's just how any given person chooses to interpret the information.
The deal here is I do not have the time, mental power, or inclination, to teach you statistics in economics on a forum.
🙂
Buddy
Only other thing I'll add is:
Wake me up when Biden comes out and says we need (checks inflation calculator) a $12.37 minimum wage.
January 2022 along with an executive order putting it into practice for all federal workers.
Those charts were for the article. And no. That's not how statistics works. These aren't special interest sites, one stat does not over rule another stat. You use the right stat for the right thing. You cannot say the working class is doing better while the production and nonsupervisory pay numbers and Census median income numbers don't support that.
And yeah I missed that, EO. That's great. To be fair I'm also remembering he nearly got a federal 15 minimum but for Kyrsten Sinema.
I want to try an experiment
Can you summarize my argument back to me? Like what I was saying and what sources I drew on to support it and how? There was one central thesis, and I supported that thesis from one of my sources and from both of yours. I'm gonna give you from 1-5 stars depending on how accurately you describe it. You don't have to agree with it or how I justified it, just show that you understood what I was saying.