Russia’s economy is now completely driven by the war in Ukraine – it cannot afford to lose, but nor can it afford to win
Russia’s economy is now completely driven by the war in Ukraine – it cannot afford to lose, but nor can it afford to win
Western military support for Ukraine is more important than ever.
Cross-posted from: https://feddit.de/post/9438338
Military pay, ammunition, tanks, planes, and compensation for dead and wounded soldiers, all contribute to the GDP figures. Put simply, the war against Ukraine is now the main driver of Russia’s economic growth.
And it is a war that Russia cannot afford to win. The cost of rebuilding and maintaining security in a conquered Ukraine would be too great, and an isolated Russia could at best hope to become a junior partner entirely dependent on China.
You're viewing a single thread.
Russia has managed to switch to war economy, that is not really good news for Europe.
How long Russia can maintain it is another question. When most of your produce is intended to get destroyed in near future with nothing in return, you're basically throwing money out of the window.
If you win the war, you can get a lot in return. That is why countries do it. Permanent access to ressources, people, strategic locations...
The difficulty is switching back though. That's why it is so dangerous. Getting locked in a war economy requires to attack ever new targets, deepening the hole.
Russia has a shitton of natural resources they are not using. Ukraine has nothing additional to give, apart from historical lands
Ukraine has a lot of fertile land. With climate change Ukraine becomes more valuable to stabilize food supply. Prices for farm land in Ukraine have been increasing sharply, even during the war.
In geostrategic terms, controlling Ukraine allows Russia to double the controlled area of the Black Sea coast.
Both aspects significantly increase the dependency of Europe and many Asian and African countries on trade under Russian control. Ukraines pre war agricultural exports show great opportunities to increase Russian influence, particularly in countries already relying heavily on food imports and being strongly vulnerable to climate change.
Russia's agricultural potential is not currently limited by land, but rather by weather, which meets the same condition as you describe for Ukraine. The biggest advantage of stealing Ukrainian farms is an already established industry, which Russia needs to destroy in order to take the land. There are some arguments for destroying Ukraine to eliminate competition, but they are not that strong when you consider the global market demand, and if you include agricultural inputs such as fertiliser, which put the Russians into a very strong position. Russia also already has several valuable access points for the Black Sea. It would have been cheaper to develop existing ports for more deep water access than to destroy the RU economy in a war. Some more rail development would be necessary as well, but that isn't hard for Russian industry. As we have seen lately, occupying Crimean ports and airfields isn't as big an advantage as it used to be because warfare has changed.
The biggest reasons for taking Ukraine are cultural egotism. To redefine the Russian nation as a strong player in the world, instead of the fading gas station. There is something to say about one person's desire to create the historical narrative as a despotic conquerer.
BTW, Vlad Vexlers videos are quite informative from the philosophical perspective, getting at both the philosophy of the Russian leadership and the historical cultural perspective of the Russian nation.
but rather by weather, which meets the same condition as you describe for Ukraine.
Climate zones:
Precipitation:
Soil quality:
You are right that Russia has about a similiar sized good quality land to the east/north east of Ukraine in terms of climate,precipitation and soil quality. That would still be a huge strategic improvement, independant from development of the land. You are also right that Russia has ports at the Black Sea already. It is not about just what you have, it is also about what others wouldn't have.
We see the same thing in reverse with the NordStream pipelines. The Gas could have been continued to be transported through Ukraine and Poland just fine. But by building around them, Germany and Russia could deny a share of the cake to them, which of course they were strongly opposed to, like most other European countries and the US were too.
Most of Russia is pretty poor farm land otherwise:
Russia has very little other than natural resources. In particular they lack a lot of the later parts of production chains to make use of many of those resources to produce modern goods.
And this war has only accelerated other countries trying to reduce their dependence on Russia's resources.
When most of your produce is intended to get destroyed in near future with nothing in return, you’re basically throwing money out of the window.
That's kind of how war economy works. For me it looks more and more, like we are approaching a full on war against Russia (completely surreal to me, since I was born in Russia).
I still live in Russia and want to offer a bit of an optimistic perspective.
First of all, Putin and the officials siding with him one war or another have been fearmongering a war with Europe, the USA, or even the entire NATO for years already. Granted, they did the same with Ukraine prior to the invasion, but I doubt there's any decision-makers left in Russia that genuinely belive they can swing at NATO and expect anything else but a swift and painful defeat: the amount of resources dedicated to the current attempts to do anything in Ukraine would make it even harder to launch a new offensive, let alone defend anything.
Arguably, fighting Ukraine, Russia is still fighting mostly Ukraine, albeit with significant aid from its allies or at least Russia's opponents; as reluctant as the EU, the USA, or NATO (or some of their counterparts) may seem to ditch the political ratings for either coughing up more resources or even restructuring to produce them, one tendency of our species remains strong: we do act when it's about us, when it's seemingly too late. Ukraine, for now at least, probably doesn't feel like an integral part of Europe or NATO, maybe some even still believe the country to be that similar to Russia, which, combined, explains the rather cautious approach in terms of providing more lethal aid.
If Russia attacks, say, Moldova or Lithuania or Estonia or Latvia or Poland or Finland or anything else (other than Belarus, perhaps), nobody is ever going to think of it as of some kind of conflict between neighbors that somehow seems more complicated than it actually is (partly because both neighbors are slavs and tend to have somewhat nuanced, rather than obvious differences, I guess), and on top of that, any doubts like whether it's possible to wear the Russian army down by dripfeeding supplies to the ones that fight it, or whether Putin can be appeased, or whether Putin will calm down after "reclaiming actually historically Russian land", or anything like that - all of that is going out the window and people start acting, fast, with the combined might much greater than Russia is managing to muster now through elusive contraband military imports and making use of decades-old equipment and economical manipulations.
And in a conflict like that, who's going to side with Russia, against the much bigger dog of NATO? Anyone who joins on the Russia's side gets at the very least sanctioned to smithereens in the event of an actual war, and neither China nor India can have that; some of the dictatorships from the middle east may try, but I doubt they'd want to give NATO a proper excuse.
Putin is a gopnik and understands only the language of clubs and stones - the powers that Putin chose to call his enemies not only have bigger and meaner clubs and stones, but have more of them, and have the means to get even more. He might have attempted something had he actually conquered and held Ukraine, but not after this kind of reality check; he's back to being the strong wife-beating alcoholic that sits tight when a real threat looks his way.
I have a totally different question about currently living in russia. In media we allways hear that protests are being suppressed and a lot of people actually belive what putin says. What is your experience when talking to other people about your opinion? Do you think twice talking about that topic? How many people you know have a opinion like yours?
Great questions, thank you. I'll try my best to stick to the point and provide answers that don't span paragraphs. I've already been accused of my very typical Russian tendency to write out lengthy sentences here.
What is your experience when talking to other people about your opinion? Do you think twice talking about that topic?
I think much more than twice before I indicate my position towards Putin, his government, or the war whenever I'm not talking to people I know I can trust. As important as it feels to "spread the word", it's just not safe to be display disloyalty towards the regime: some may tell the police about you (sometimes deliberately exaggerating to cause you more trouble), some may try and fight you, which sometimes ends really bad, and at the same time, sometimes it's just a very regular, easy conversation where you just share your opinions and go about your business, no harm done.
Sometimes, judging by what the people you're conversing with say and how they say it, you can tell whether they're capable of even thinking of doing anything nasty if you disagree and to what degree. It's still best to not risk it and steer away from that kind of talk with strangers or people you're not sure about yet.
How many people you know have a opinion like yours?
Like MINE? Probably just me alone, but I'm saying this because the topic itself already encompasses a lot of issues, like the international law, Crimea, decolonization, imperialistic complexes and ideas, patriotism, guilt, various traumas, and many other things. There's no way two people agree on everything - I've met people who are just as anti-war and anti-Putin and pro-west like me, very liberal or left-leaning and all, but can't even begin to imagine Russia having to pay reparations after the war; there's more: I personally know a person that wants all of it to end, like no Putin, no war type of attitude, but they seem to have something personal against Ukrainians, as if they actually hate them. It's very nuanced and complicated.
That being said, if we boil down my opinion to something as practical as "Out with Putin" and "No more war", then every single person I know would fall into that category: including the people from older generations, the ones that were most affected by the propaganda. Some of them are bitter about it, like they don't want the war to end with anything less than a total Russian military victory, a complete defeat and conquer of the entire Ukraine; some are much closer to me, thinking that the Russian army should just pack up and leave to the borders that were internationally established in 1991, so Crimea goes back to Ukraine as well..
So, in general, the people who want the war to go on are an actual minority. Everybody is tired of it, but each in their own way. I don't think anyone has been affected in a positive way, not after 2 full years of this: even pragmatically, we've all lost too much in both short- and long-term as a country, and even some of the "luckier" people who maybe got higher wages on their industrial facility because the demand has increased go to the same supermarkets and drug stores as I do, they go to the same hospitals, use the same infrastructure and all that, and they've surely suffered the consequences as much as anyone else, and even their (most likely temporary) material gains could never make up for, say, ruined international relationships, maybe ruined personal relationships, maybe dead relatives, and many other things.
Having said all that, I will also tell you this as a bonus: it's getting harder to disagree. Even the pro-war bloggers (the so called z-bloggers) are now getting the stick treatment for getting out of line; they used to think that they're the in-crowd and they have the free pass on reporting the real state of affairs, i.e. openly talking about problems, losses, incompetence, etc., but one thing a dictator can't have you do is steer away from the official line, as that hurts the narratives the propaganda is going for. The irony knows no bounds.
P.S. Still got lengthy and all, my apologies.
but can’t even being to imagine Russia having to pay reparations after the war
Eh. It'll probably be mining concessions: Decent jobs with decent wages for Russians, profits for Ukraine, as a bonus Russia gets to learn to run a state budget without resource money, actually develop the economy and everything.
That's both because it's something that Russia can pay and because it doesn't risk revanchism.
they used to think that they’re the in-crowd and they have the free pass on reporting the real state of affairs
Real state of affairs is a very curious thing. Have a look at how Argentine's dictatorship reported the state of the Falklands war, and what happened after they couldn't deny any more that a bunch of tea-sipping crumpet munchers handed their asses to them.
That was super interesting, thank you for sharing!
Thank you for this very informative post! I'm also a bit curious, how exactly has the typical quality of life degraded due to the sanctions?
It's probably a very late response, but I'll still leave it if you want it.
I honestly don't know what typical quality of live is or was ever has been. From my very own experience of someone who's making damn good money - not crazy good money, but damn good - I can tell you that life has gotten much more expensive. My lifestyle is something I think many people would consider enviable, because my expenses mostly come down to food and rent, with a lot of disposable income that, to my shame, is getting disposed all right.
Being a bit of a dreamer, I often imagine purchasing some stuff like real estate or a car because I've switched my lifestyle, or just pretend to be preparing to replace some things in my life. During these times, I look at the prices, and since that had already happened before time and time again, I can tell that the prices for everything have increased dramatically.
The prices, though, are one thing: what's more is the fact that the salaries haven't increased for most people, of course, and the ruble itself has plummeted down, devaluing everyone's salaries basically. The people who get paid in dollars or euros directly or simply receive equivalent sums in rubles are much better off on paper, of course, but that doesn't change the fact that the economy isn't doing well for the people; I don't really think it's doing well for the military either, to be honest.
Now, there's no empty shelves or any kind of shortages that you would notice in your regular life, but I'm saying this because I'm not in the market for anything that's now gone for decades, I believe. For example, various medications are either unaffordable now or are completely absent, with some substitutes taking their place; unfortunately, I don't know nearly enough as to tell you more here.
Another thing that's definitely taken a hit is choice: there's simply much less stuff to choose from now all across the market. That being said, there are some alternatives that have attempted to take the places of the goods that had left the market, but that cannot be said about every niche - and even more importantly, often you can't say the substitutes have the same quality as their predecessors, on multiple levels ranging from sheer product quality to support and service.
The weird conclusion is that it's kinda difficult to say that the country is on the brink of collapse, but you definitely can't say that the sanctions haven't done any damage to the economy and the quality of life here. The consequences, in my opinion, have been far from intended nonetheless, mostly because there are some aspects of dealing with Putin in particular and Russia as a whole that the people establishing and trying to enforce these sanctions simply couldn't have anticipated; to be fair, many people within Russia or deeply associating themselves with Russia couldn't have anticipated those aspects to play, for the lack of a better word, well in this situation.
Things are very complicated and difficult to forecast when it comes to such a scale, I believe.
Thank you for the insights!
I'd say just a lot of inconvenience But I'm a little bit above average
Thank you for sharing that.
It isn't good news for Russia either.
It's much worse news for Russia. Total war is impossible to sustain for a people, as attacker: If the home front is completely mobilised for war there's nothing left to fight for in terms of home and culture and even politics, the only source of morale left is survival, and as the attacker Russia doesn't have that, on the contrary it plays against them as they'd all get to survive splendidly by simply retreating to their borders.
OTOH, from the fascist's POV it's all so very inviting: Only war? How splendid! Then we don't actually have to have a culture or politics, that's nice, we don't like that degeneracy anyway.
It seems that Putin read his Clausewitz and then thought "Oh that silly old Prussian goose, what does he know, Hitler knew better he just got too greedy".
Also have you any idea what it would look like if the EU switched to a war economy. Fully, that is, not like into 1/2th gear (which we're getting close to). Germany+France+Italy alone have 10x Russia's GDP.
Here is an alternative Piped link(s):
https://www.piped.video/watch?v=-oZF8653vL4&t=105s
Piped is a privacy-respecting open-source alternative frontend to YouTube.
I'm open-source; check me out at GitHub.
It's pretty good for China and India. Eastern Russia will be Northern China in a few years. With all ressources. Until 2038 maybe.
On the other hand, China had access to those resources already, and are now much more exposed internationally, as evidenced by recent Western efforts to "de-risk" economic relations.
India are making a lot of money but they've also lost their main weapons supplier and are now forced to turn to Western countries to fill the gap. A position they most definitely didn't want to be in.
The first hit on NATO-soil will change the lame economical stance of Europe. Not good news for Ukraine sadly as NATO until then will be dragging its feet. I don't understand why.
Because Ukraine is not in NATO?
Because going to war is always a very, VERY bad idea, which should only ever be considered if all other alternatives are even worse.
Starting a was is a bad idea. Preparing to defend yourself it not a bad idea.
