I would suppose that depends on what NATO's response is. They could swiftly disable Russia's conventional forces in Ukraine and the Black Sea without creating an existential threat to Moscow, which is what I expect it would take to provoke nuclear warfare.
To disable Russian forces in ukraine youd have (my opinion, truth is probably more complicated and I’m definitely not an expert) probably to invade Russia and encircle the Russian forces. You could also drive the Russian forces through ukraine which would probably be a lot more costly when it comes to losses. Either one might make china compelled to aid Russia in some form or anotehr which wouldn’t be great
Ukraine is on its way to pushing Russia out without even getting close to the bleeding edge of NATO technology. The argument is whether or not NATO would even need boots on the ground to push Russia out. And then the next step of argument is whether the boots on the ground need to be anything but advisory.
You don't need to invade Russian or encircle shit. Send an aircraft carrier, establish air superiority, bomb all positions until the cunts either leave or die. Let Ukraine establish a 25km zone on each side of the border where they wont cross. Dial in the whole border with artillery like the DMZ in Korea.
Putin is rational and realizes he cannot stand against NATO and hope to survive
Putin is not rational
In case of 1, we should make it clear there is no path to victory for him. In the case of 2, it doesn't matter, he's going to go crazy already, the die has already been cast.
I'm past fearing what Putin might do. It's time he starts fearing what we might do if he keeps fucking around. The finding out portion of today's exercise is ready to begin.
Fucking bring it. As an SSBN submariner in the US strategic nuclear navy, please give me a reason to flip that switch. Not a soul in the strategic forces would even hesitate to respond to a valid and authentic EAM.