https://blueypedia.fandom.com/wiki/Shorts

Bluey is great for that age, I can't recommend it enough. For brushing teeth maybe Bluey shorts?

So if the difference is corporate consolidation... Sounds like that's the real underlying issue then, not automation.

Economics has well established that monopolistic behavior by firms harms consumers & the overall economy (that's why we have anti-trust laws in the first place).

Don't conflate the one problem with another, as I agree the erosion of anti-trust laws is a bad thing and needs to be reversed. But that doesn't mean firms further automating things is now also bad.

I'd also say "automation affecting the whole economy at once" isn't unique. The industrial revolution was not isolated to one industry, its effects were economy-wide. Also true for the transportation revolution (trains & steam boats moved everything), telecommunications, and the internet...

If you're not aware, look up the automation paradox: https://ideas.ted.com/will-automation-take-away-all-our-jobs/

Every* automation advancement has lead to an increase in employment, not decrease. Most often jobs in the immediate sector are lost, but the rise in supporting sector jobs are bolstered.

Classic examples are the cotton mill and combine harvester. The number of agricultural workers declined, but the number of jobs processing agricultural product increased. Or with ATMs, the number of tellers needed per bank location decreased, but the total employment in the banking sector increased (banks opened more branches, namely in places where it was previously cost prohibitive).

As more things are automated, what's being automated becomes cheaper and more prolific, often increasing (or creating) new opportunities. There are so many historic examples of this, it's hard to justify "this time is different" predictions... Even for things like AI automating white collar jobs.

*Edit: almost every. It depends a bit on how you count the secondary jobs, and where those are located (automation combined with offshoring results in a net decline in some countries, but increase overall).

Inflation risk is more likely from a US China trade war or conflict escalations in eastern Europe or the middle east. The interest rate was a pretty blunt instrument to combat COVID induced inflation; but it's the only one the Fed has.

I'm concerned the stock markets are already overvalued; (edit: S&P500 used for these numbers) up 17% YTD over 85% on a 5 year mark... that's borderline bubble; throwing more cheap money at it isn't what we need at the moment; a more cautious return to lower rates is called for in my opinion. Give the markets time to digest and use the meeting minutes to signal likely further declines.

Larger cut than I think was appropriate at this time. Employment is cooling, but still positive. I wonder if some of the unpublished leading indicators show a more bearish picture...

A photo op that would be so easy to arrange...

Check out Fez if you haven't already. Also Tunic does a great job of starting out basic & breaking precedent.

I'm enjoying what they released this year too. Beautiful People is now on my regular playlist.

There'S always time to take a break and catch your breath. You have sick days and personal days for a reason; use those to center yourself rather than running yourself into the ground.

You said above you've previously switched jobs; use that as a baseline to know that worst case isn't crash and burn, but finding a new job (just like you've done several times before). If you're killing yourself for a big corporate position... that's a terrible reason to burn yourself out.

Refocus to something else you enjoy in life (family, friends, hobbies, whatever...). Use the CBT techniques that worked for you before. First just catch your breath, then start working back towards a better state. You did it before, you can do it again!

Hackers and hobbiests will persist despite any economics. Much of what they do I don't see AI replacing, as AI creates based off of what it "knows", which is mostly things it has previously ingested.

We are not (yet?) at the point where LLM does anything other than put together code snippets it's seen or derived. If you ask it to find a new attack vector or code dissimilar to something it's seen before the results are poor.

But the counterpoint every developer needs to keep in mind: AI will only get better. It's not going to lose any of the current capabilities to generate code, and very likely will continue to expand on what it can accomplish. It'd be naive to assume it can never achieve these new capabilities... The question is just when & how much it costs (in terms of processing and storage).

The reality of Texas green energy is so detached from the political rhetoric from politicians... The state making the most wind energy has leaders in the capital demonizing it while the state finances (and citizens) clearly benefit. I wish the voters of Texas paid more attention and called out such obvious gaslighting :(

Making your own sirracha mayo! You can adjust exactly how much spice you want in it. Or add in other flavors as desired... I once had to do a Gochujang mayo when out of sirracha, it was different but still good.

Gravity is caused by a bunch of invisible gnomes with long arms hugging everything. Planes can fly once they are going faster than the gnomes can run... Helicopters because the spinning blade scares them.

Your pizza probably had pineapple on it, they hate that.

https://www.usda.gov/media/blog/2017/01/13/cost-raising-child

Usually these costs are including education and childcare. In the US you can easily expect to pay around $1K / Month for full time child care between the ages of 6 months and 5 years (when they'll start public school). Here's a recent summary for major cities in Texas reflecting that amount: https://tootris.com/edu/blog/parents/child-care-in-texas-can-cost-up-to-10000/

That's over $40K just in childcare costs before entering school. Now, many people don't have to pay this because they have family (or a non-working spouse) who assist; but from a cost perspective it's fair to include.

Add on to that food, clothing and such... between ages it's easy to see how some estimates can reach over $200K through age 18.

The Ola one looks pretty dang nice; if it were available in the US I'd probably buy one just for random rides on nice weather days.

https://newatlas.com/motorcycles/ola-electric-roadster-motorcycles/

PPI at 0.1 brings us solidly back in line with pre-covid inflation numbers; with the 12-month at 2.2.

Core PPI still higher at 0.3 (3.3 for the 12 month period).

Certainly feels like the covid kinks have mostly worked out at this point and prices have stabilized... If there's no shocks it's looking much more likely the Fed lowers interest rates this quarter.

This is great momentum; especially if it helps down ballot Colin Allred defeat Ted Cruz for the senate. Some polling has him within 5 points (or even tied in a few polls earlier this year). It's a bit of a stretch; but Texas is notorious for it's low voter turnout. Moving a few % of this non-voting population to feel like their vote matters & get them to show up would be enough to shift these races!

Fair point; I was throwing around off-the-cuff numbers. You're right that 15 or 30 year mortgages are the time frames to calculate around.

The inflation adjustment is valid too. If rates drop refinance options are available at the mortgage holder's convenience (assuming their terms allow it, but most do); but taking advantage of decreasing rent often requires a move; not nearly as easy as a purely paperwork based refinance.

My mindset is still stuck in the 2010s; when inflation was mild & rates were at historic lows for nearly the entire decade.