Larian Studios (30% owned by Tencent) was attempting to buy D&D. They weren't able to afford it, and to they pulled Tencent into the negotiation. I don't know if that means Hasbro actually is interested in selling - though it's hard to see a world where they're not. https://massivelyop.com/2024/01/31/hasbro-is-selling-the-dungeons-and-dragons-ip-and-tencent-is-the-potential-buyer/

However, Wizards of the Coast is saying that they don't intend to sell, as of an hour ago: https://www.pcgamer.com/wizards-of-the-coast-dispels-rumours-that-tencent-wants-to-gobble-up-dandd-like-a-tarrasque-to-be-clear-we-are-not-looking-to-sell-our-dandd-ip/

True.

So, you're doing D6+D6 from dagger, martial arts from your other attack (unarmed), then flurry - and so it lowers the dice at higher levels - but it remains good. Also, you're making up this damage from Empowered Strike - for example - as a subclass feature. It does make it so that, particularly at higher levels, unarmed is better - but unarmed is going to be better (generally) anyway because force damage isn't resisted.

So, you're trailing by one when the die changes to D8, trailing by two when it changes to D10, and by three when it changes to D12 - on average. However, you're gaining your ability modifier an additional time - which will counter that average reduction. And it's an extra hit roll, sending down your chance not to cause damage at all.

Each night, you can pick two simple weapons to master. A dagger is a simple weapon. It also uses your martial arts die for damage, just as it would today for Dedicated Weapon or Kensai.

Here is Nick:

When you make the extra attack of the Light property, you can make it as part of the Attack action, instead of as a Bonus Action. You can still make this extra attack only once per turn.

At level 1, there is a bonus unarmed attack on Monk - since that is not the Light property on a Weapon, that bonus unarmed attack can still be used. Flurry of Blows is also not the Light property on a weapon, and so it'd also be open - assuming you took Two-Weapon Fighting, you would make that attack with your ability modifier and your martial arts die.

And so that would increase all the numbers by the martial arts die, and then by the attribute modifier as well if you had two-weapon fighting. This would put it very much comparable to the Warlock Baseline that was recently posted here.

A friend once told me, it was for Xcom and EverQuest back in the day, that there's a secret in all games. I will share his wisdom. "When you don't hit, things don't die." So, if you're looking at anything that improves a hit rate - it will tend to improve your damage over time more than something that merely improves damage, unless the damage boost is ridiculously overpowered.

To me, this is the principal behind a lot of high damage builds - of any class - the principal of "my attack bonus is high, and I roll the die many times." And that's because consider Disintegrate, for example. It is a great spell - it does a lot of damage. But it is all or nothing - either the spell gets you or it doesn't. Again - it's a great spell, but either it works or it doesn't - and if it doesn't you deal none of that damage and may not have the spell slots to try again.

If you look at the Monk - there's another thing to consider here, which is stunning strike.

When a creature is stunned, you get advantage on attacks and prevent it from doing anything, so you can attack.

The Stunning Strike Nerf is a good thing. Damages appear to be reasonable:

• 2d6 + 2DEX at level 1
• 2d6 + 2DEX any number of times at level 2
• 3d6 + 3DEX twice a short rest at level 2
• 4d8 + 4DEX five times a short rest at level 5
• (changes to Force - the least resisted damage type in 5E at level 6, as an option)
• 4d10 +4DEX eleven times a short rest at level 11
• 4D12 + 4DEX seventeen times a short rest at level 17

These assume you're using Discipline for Flurry of Blows, which isn't always possible. They also assume a 100% hit rate, but what's fantastic on all these also is that it's multiple attack rolls. It is possible, but unlikely, you'll miss all the attacks. You have a really good chance of getting at least one nat 20 in your rolls. I usually prefer multiple attack rolls.

Also, for the first 5 levels - you can snag a D8 Simple Weapon (most simples are D6 or lower, none are above a D8) to improve damage, and you can opt for the mastery attack and effect that goes with it - and you can change masteries at a long rest.

And note, these aren't counting using various feats to get bonus damage, buffs, etc. I would argue that I think overall there are not enough Discipline points before around level 8-10 and there are too many after level 16 or so. But that's just me (since it's a short rest resource, and given the change to stunning strike, it seems less likely that you'd ever need 20 points)

And this keeps in mind you can still layer an Eldritch Claw Tatoo, for example, on top of these damages. This likely wants the same change as other current abilities (one bonus damage a round, versus one bonus damage a hit), but used as written right now - it would add a d6 to each hit and increase reach to 15'. But I mean, we'll be seeing those items in games for years to come - and it seems unlikely all current magic items will be absorbed into the DMG.