qnfo @futurology.today
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The AI Bubble may be about to burst. LLMs have reached the point of diminishing returns, and there's no sign of scaling leading to independent reasoning, needed for the first steps to AGI.
There are options, and a well-funded new player will burst on the scene just as ChatGPT made itself eponymous with language AI: https://open.substack.com/pub/qnfo/p/the-diminishing-returns-of-scaling
The AI Bubble may be about to burst. LLMs have reached the point of diminishing returns, and there's no sign of scaling leading to independent reasoning, needed for the first steps to AGI.
AI is synthetic cognition or synthetic knowledge. What we're calling AGI must "know" the logic of our quantum universe first, which is all but incomprehensible to us.
The AI Bubble may be about to burst. LLMs have reached the point of diminishing returns, and there's no sign of scaling leading to independent reasoning, needed for the first steps to AGI.
It's hard to reason with the inconsistent (sometime nonexistent) human written communication that LLMs know. There's something deeper in other channels of communication that we use for our own logic.