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neidu3 @sh.itjust.works

Oh no, you!

Posts 0
Comments 28
hmmm
  • For those who didn't know: This is Robert Plant, the vocalist of Led Zeppelin. A dove spontaneously landed on his hand during a concert. They (the doves, not the band) were released from cages at the end if Stairway to Heaven, and one of them decided to land instead of flying off.

  • What's the longest you've ever had to wait in line to vote? Where in the world?
  • In 2009 there were like three people in line in front of me. Must've taken at least 30 seconds before an available election official could check my ID. It was extremely early in the early voting period, and there was only one place open that early. I was going to be abroad for the next month, so I had to vote that day.

    When not voting early, I can't recall there ever being a line.

    "2009 election, you say??"

    Norway.

  • Kamala Harris suddenly becomes favorite to win in top election forecast
  • BuT tHeY wErE WrOnG iN 2016!1

    Yes, and no. They estimated a slightly higher chance for a Hillary win over a Donald win, but they were well within the margin of polling error, and they have been for every election. Plus people have a tendency of over-valuing a "51% chance to win".

    While this is good news, it could mean nothing.

    EDIT: 538 explained it better than I ever could:
    "Statistically, too, there is no meaningful difference between a 50-in-100 chance and a 49-in-100 chance. Small changes in the available polling data or settings of our model could easily change a 50-in-100 edge to 51-in-100 or 49-in-100. That’s all to say that our overall characterization of the race is more important than the precise probability — or which candidate is technically ahead.”