Agreed - this makes a lot of sense too. As bad as they have it, they do have a cushion due to the programs you said, and they would have seen Harris as a way to ensure that cushion remained.

In a way that reinforces my original argument (that the top and bottom didn't really feel the change in the economy as much as the middle did) - but you're right to bring this up as it's important to understand precisely why this was the case.

This makes intuitive sense to me. If you're rich, the economy getting bad like it did wouldn't have hurt so much - you do pay more but your existing wealth insulates you from most of the actual pain.

And if you're making under 30k then life was already really tough before the economy got bad, so you went from a painful situation that sucked to a slightly more painful situation that sucked.

It's those in the middle who went from comfortable to painful.

Edit: why the downvotes [email protected] and [email protected] ?

Dahh.. I was wondering actually if Biden had offered to pardon that guy like in the last two weeks prior to the election, in return for dropping out of the race.

Vance as a presidential candidate and a rushed new VP pick probably would have lost, and they'd have almost no time to make up for a missed campaign.

Also, pre-MAGA Vance was actually a not-so-unreasonable dude, see https://web.archive.org/web/20140305032241/http://centerforworldconflictandpeace.blogspot.com/2012_11_01_archive.html - so even if Vance had won, without the specter of orange voldemort he might have reverted back to his old self.

She did truly so much stuff wrong.

I'm open to the idea that there were other mistakes made, but ideally the list of this should at least be spelled out.

I'll start. Gaza. Also, https://theintercept.com/2024/11/07/harris-trump-election-immigration-border/

She was a bad candidate who never would’ve won a normal primary, like 2020 showed,

Well, 2020 was not a normal primary, with "electability" being too much of a concern as per https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/electability-eye-beholder-what-hell-do-we-actually-know-about-n1020576

she underperformed downballot candidates all over the place, including Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin, where democratic senators won or are winning, and which combined make up enough EVs to win (not to mention PA where the senate candidate outperformed Harris but lost by a hair, or NC which elected a democratic governor by a wide margin).

Hmm. This is a good point but I think that there may be another explanation for this. These races wouldn't have been so tied to Gaza or the immigration/deportation and border issues, so it's possible Harris took a big it from that while downballot, there wasn't any hit. And the underperformance isn't that wide - the GOP won most of the battleground Senate races to take majority control over the Senate.

Losing Arab voters was probably enough to cost her the election, but even with them it’s doubtful she would’ve won.

That statement contradicts itself. Either losing them cost her the election - meaning that having them on board would have saved her and lifted her to a win - or they didn't, because they weren't enough to win.

There was a 14 point swing among Hispanic voters compared to last election, likely because of the Democrats pivoting right on immigration

This is another puzzling point. It's true that there was a shift here - see for example https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/01/31/biden-border-immigration-bills-congress-2024/72399226007/ - but while he's to the right of where say Obama was, he's still to the left of orange voldemort. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68428154 and https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2024-06-18/in-an-immigration-pivot-biden-announces-plan-for-undocumented-spouses as compared to https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2024/01/trump-2024-immigration-policy-mass-deportations-stephen-miller/

Talk about cutting off the nose to spite the face.

except the moderate republicans who were never going to vote democrat

I mean we know some did, since they told us. Liz Cheney for example voted Harris.

this whole strategy that they tried that you apparently like of dismissing everyone’s concerns

You'd have to list out which concerns got dismissed?

Obviously I don't agree - dismissing everyone's concerns does seem like a bad idea - but I also don't think everyone's concerns were dismissed. Rather, Harris supported a $15 minimum wage floor - https://ca.news.yahoo.com/harris-voices-support-15-minimum-172336812.html - and there were hopes that this could go even higher once she was elected. She also supported Medicare For All in this election - https://abcnews.go.com/Health/kamala-harris-stands-health-care-issues-vies-democratic/story?id=112159503

Of course one of the most prominent issues was Gaza, but I'd argue that even here the concerns weren't dismissed, not with Harris saying that she will not be silent on human suffering in Gaza as per https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/kamala-harris-tailors-ad-messaging-on-gaza-israel-to-sway-michigan-pennsylvania-voters/ar-AA1toi71 - but this message simply was not strong enough.

Fundamentally, this whole strategy that they tried that you apparently like of dismissing everyone’s concerns except the moderate republicans who were never going to vote democrat is completely self-defeating.

Waiting on final numbers, but from the unsourced estimates in the other post, it seems like this is a false narrative. Rather than former Dems voting red like I first thought, it seems previous non-voters turned out red instead. As to why...

the economy was voters’ biggest concern where Harris’ messaging was very weak.

I think this is the only point where we agree on. I'm seeing elsewhere, e.g. https://apnews.com/article/trump-harris-economy-immigration-11db37c033328a7ef6af71fe0a104604 , that this is exactly why some shifted.

But as VP Harris probably couldn't have divorced herself from the economy.

who never would’ve won a normal primary

So 2020 was not a normal primary, but one held in 2024 wouldn't have been either. I think we are agreed on this point - had an actual primary taken place, that weakness would have been exposed, and someone other than Harris - who could more easily distance themselves from the most disliked parts and policies of the Biden-Harris administration - could have carried the torch, improving the odds of a win.

I guess they back either other up. Like archive.is is able to take archives from archive.org but the saved page reflects the original URL and the original archiving time from the wayback machine (though it also notes the URL used from wayback itself plus the time they got archived it from wayback).

Ah, that makes sense. So the FediDB info seems to be wrong - I wonder if they got confused by cloudflare as per the other comment in https://feddit.org/post/4529920/2993842 ?

Also, is there a way to let them know to update it? I guess someone could report an issue on github...

Well, based on https://www.arabnews.com/node/2033691/world I can see an argument for them being undercounted in, and thus a tipping point for Wisconsin as well. And if all three are in play then that's the EC.

But yes - if there was any room on any other issue to improve on, those improvements might have helped in getting the lowest Arab/Muslim populated swing states into play and gotten to a surer EC win.

That confuses me too. I've never really understood that. Likewise, /m/news is for US news while world news goes into /m/world and US news isn't allowed.

Maybe that's another reason why folks thing it's US-based - because the magazines are clearly so US oriented. But I'm not sure how that happened.

On the brain bin for example it's PoliticsUSA - https://thebrainbin.org/m/PoliticsUSA

The other thing is that I recall that kbin.social exploded and got a huge chuck of the exodus - but now that it's been effectively dead for half a year, those users mostly seem to have vanished.

A fraction clearly did migrate to other mbin and lemmy instances. It seems like the rest did not return to spez's site from what I'm hearing ("all the posts I'm seeing there are complaining that only bots are active here") but I'm not sure where they went. But for example, one person I was following seems to have dropped off entirely from the fediverse and all social media.

Why did you think lemmy.world was US based? It's fully European.

But that's probably it - folks assume the instance that's for the whole world is the US-based one and don't feel the need to make another major US-based one.

Came here to say that. I wasn't covered by GDPR under spez's site - but luckily their policies treated me like I was anyways.

I moved to kbin.social - which was probably the 2nd largest after lemmy.world. Also, it was Polish.

What I liked about that was - as per my understanding - since these are hosted in the EU, the GDPR applies to my data here even if I'm not the EU myself and am not an EU citizen.

With a tld ending like .world you'd think it's for the whole world, not just europe (.eu) or a specific country.

feddit.org itself is a bit of a curiosity since the .org doesn't make it obvious that it is German - but someone posted the full story of how feddit.de fell apart and feddit.org became the successor.

Actually I'm starting to move against this view as well. https://lemmy.blahaj.zone/post/18340229 shows that turnout was even higher than in 2020 (though still waiting on sources for those numbers, which in any case are estimates and not the final count)

Rather than Dems majorly sitting it out or switching sides, it is actually starting to look like all the GOP folks who sat home in 2016 and 2020 finally decided to turn out for orange voldemort. I wonder why though... I guess, they finally thought the economy had become bad enough to punish the status quo leaders.

Yeah, this is the one thing I wasn't sure Harris was doing right. And based on what's coming out now with the numbers on margin of the swing states and how many Arab voters switched, it seems like this might have been the sole issue that cost Harris the White House.

For my part, I thought she should have promised to use executive action to declare a national referendum on the issue once she was elected President, and tell the Jewish bloc that she'd always continue supporting Israel's right to defending itself while telling the Arab voters that she'd use the referendum results to justify putting an end to the war in Gaza by any means necessary and justified and approved in the referendum itself.

From the sources I referenced earlier though it seems like may have been what broke the core three swing states - Arab voters who backed Biden in 2020 flipped to the GOP in 2024. In absolute terms the margins by which Penn and Michigan turned red are tiny - so it's easy to believe that winning over the Arab vote would have made all the difference in the EC.

That was the one major issue that I wasn't sure on w.r.t. Harris. It seems to me like she did everything else right except that. Now, she was between a rock and a hard place there - but perhaps she should have counted on the Jewish voting block staying loyal no matter what and then appeased this group by much stronger measures.

Anyways, I saw a Harris win as being the last chance to implement a plan to reform the entire system and give progressives and far-left folks a fair chance, starting with a bunch of new constitutional amendments that would get ratified. But now I fear the exact opposite may happen. It all depends on who takes the House majority.

What's interesting is that currently, the site is broken, but in the footer you can see the last set of magazines that were new.

Which means the database is still intact, and if not a full resurrection, we could get our data back at least (I lost a lot of content when kbin.social went down). Just gotta figure out who to contact - which company is actually maintaining or hosting the servers that kbin.social run on..

Explains why I see you so often on lemmy.ca !

Btw, here's an example of someone who endorsed orange voldemort because of Gaza: Democratic Hamtramck Mayor Amer Ghalib. Source: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/14/hamtramck-donald-trump-arab-american-muslim

What's your current kbin instance? Curious to see if it's running mbin now or if it really is the original kbin on there still.

Also, anyone remember kbin.cafe ?

Yeah, that chart needs to be updated. AFAIK no instance is still on kbin, everything has gone to mbin. It's also missing pyfedi/piefed

As far as I can tell there's been no communication from him for several months and not since he posted saying he'd turn kbin.social over to a new admin.

But the domain for kbin.social was recently renewed (I posted full details over at https://fedia.io/m/fediverse/t/1403334/Any-updates-on-kbin-social-recently ) which gives me hope that ernest is still around, just a bit more behind the scenes.

Of course, it could also be that the domain was simply auto-renewed (as described in https://www.godaddy.com/en-ca/help/turn-my-domain-auto-renew-on-or-off-41085 ). I think some registrars or services even offer prepayment options for auto-renewing, meaning that ernest might have set this all up before he disappeared, rather than slowly reappearing now...