Most of these simple stats don’t do a good job of determining team success. A team could have an amazing offense but a terrible defense and be unsuccessful and the other way around. They also could have amazing stats on both sides but maybe they’ve played garbage teams so they end up losing most of the rest of their games.
Generally advanced stats are better for stuff like that. I know 538 and Football Outsiders has stuff for that, it might be worth looking into those.
The chargers have been just masters of being statistical anomaly for a while it seems like. I remember like 4 seasons ago they lost a ridiculous amount of games they had like a 90%+ statistical chance of winning.