In Phoenix, America's first car-free district is succeeding, and its founder thinks it is being helped by the city's early adoption of robotaxis.

Although tariffs might slow things down, the ultimate destiny of the world's robotaxis is probably to be cheap, electric and made in China. This week, BYD the maker of the $9,500 Seagull hatchback said it will make Level 2 self-driving standard on all its cars, including it.

When cars this cheap are self-driving and taxis, it will mean there is little point for many people to own a car. Why, if the few hundred kms/miles you drive a month costs a fraction of car ownership?

Ryan Johnson, the developer of Culdesac, thinks this trend is already helping it, and will ripple out to change the way more and more people live in cities.

Current state of Waymo in Phoenix

• Now regularly seeing my social circle, male and female, looking to it first

• Parents now comfortable sending their kids to school and elsewhere. This is a major vibe shift. Early on, women solo riders were the loudest champions. But parents are overtaking that. Effusive praise e.g. “I have my freedom back!”

• Biggest impediment to growth is that they go slower. Which of course is because they don’t speed and don’t run red lights

• Perception that Waymo makes other drivers drive safer

• Now regularly seeing Waymo convoys

• First anecdote effect dissipating. When someone sees their first minor error from Waymo, it is jarring. But then a long time elapses until they see their second. And that builds intuition that it is rare, and points the finger at how much more common errors are from human drivers

• People are asking when they can order Waymo via either Lyft or Uber

• People seeing how fast the AI tools are improving is bringing the “Waymo right now is the worst it will ever be” conclusion

Phoenix is Waymo’s most mature market, now 8 years into public availability. It’s a big reason why we chose Phoenix (Tempe) for the first Culdesac.

The May 2023 launch of the Jaguar platform was a seminal moment in the history of AV Ridehail going mainstream. And AV Ridehail is going to drive the largest change to cities in decades.