Ceasefire in Lebanon, and the future of resistance to Israel

Israel has successfully decoupled the Lebanese front from Gaza, effectively ending the attrition along its northern border. This maneuver has left Gaza and its resistance isolated, facing the full weight of Israeli military and political pressure. While support may still emerge from other fronts, particularly Yemen, Gaza’s leverage in negotiations has been significantly diminished, reducing its bargaining power.

This decoupling also allows Israel to advance its war plans in Gaza, albeit with several caveats. The first challenge lies in Israel’s broader strategic intention: reasserting control over Gaza for the foreseeable future. Israel’s military return to the strip raises questions about the sustainability of such a move, the costs of governance, and the long-term implications for its domestic and international standing. The logistical, political, and social complexities of maintaining control in such a contested territory present formidable obstacles, specifically when it has failed to defeat Hamas or end its influence in the Strip.

Secondly, Israel’s plans for settlement expansion in Gaza, annexation of land, redrawing the border, and a continued presence in the Philadelphi Corridor and other strategic areas reflect a deeper settler-colonial ambition. These plans aim to consolidate territorial dominance but come with significant risks. Sustained Palestinian resistance, combined with the logistical and ethical complexities of imposing settler-colonial structures, makes such objectives precarious. The transfer of settlers into Gaza demands a degree of stability and acquiescence from the local population that seems improbable under the current conditions. Furthermore, these plans complicate Israel’s position regarding the return of captives, presenting a critical contradiction in its strategic calculus.

These contradictions are now poised to dominate Israel’s political landscape. After more than a year of war, fatigue, and weariness are settling in, challenging the narrative of total victory. Signs of pragmatism are emerging, with growing segments of Israeli society—particularly over recent months—expressing a desire to end the wars in Gaza and Lebanon. This sentiment underscores a tension between the state’s expansive military ambitions and the public’s increasing demand for stability and resolution, a return to life without war.

However, these dynamics unfold against the backdrop of a right-wing government fixated on ethnic cleansing and settlement expansion. The sacrifice of the captives, a central concern for Israel’s left-leaning factions, will exacerbate the internal struggles over Netanyahu’s corruption and intersect with the controversial legal reforms championed by the Religious Zionist bloc. This broader project to redefine the state’s identity could deepen societal fractures, polarize the political arena, and intensify the ongoing battle over the future trajectory of Israel.