(Part 2) GE15: Was the ‘Green Wave’ powered by young voters? | Kini News Lab | Malaysiakini
(Part 2) GE15: Was the ‘Green Wave’ powered by young voters? | Kini News Lab | Malaysiakini
Malaysians are split on generational lines when it comes to voting, GE15 scoresheet data shows.
Malaysians are split on generational lines when it comes to voting, GE15 scoresheet data shows.
Ok split in 3 because it's a lot. Interactive sections not included, except for one in this part: 1/3 MAIN ARTICLE: Malaysians are split on generational lines when it comes to voting, GE15 scoresheet data shows . In his family, Mohamad Fakhrul Fahmi Mat Yusop, 28, is an anomaly. Casting his ballot for the second time last year, the Gombak resident was the only one to have voted for Perikatan Nasional.
His older siblings, some much older, came of age in the Reformasi era and their political loyalties were with Pakatan Harapan chairperson Anwar Ibrahim and his allies. Growing up in the Klang Valley, Fahmi's older siblings witnessed the large political rallies in Kuala Lumpur, and voted against their parents' favoured candidates from BN.
But Fahmi, who spent many years in an Islamic college in Terengganu, had different views.
"My friends in Klang Valley mostly voted for Harapan, but those from the East Coast are PAS voters. I voted for PAS too in 2018," he told Malaysiakini.
Although he was already leaning towards the then Gombak PN candidate, Azmin Ali, he still read through all the major coalition's manifestos.
"To me, they all sounded more or less the same. But I was more convinced by PN because I was certain of their Islamic roots.
"I didn't want to vote for Harapan because in the short time they held federal power, we saw all these issues like LGBT and so on. I didn't want a repeat of that.
"I also didn't want BN because there were so many corruption cases. Look at the (former premier) Najib (Abdul Razak) case. The corruption is rife. So PN is a better option," he said.
Fahmi may be an outlier in his household, but in Gombak, he is not rare. In fact, his family's voting pattern reflects that of voters of their generation in that constituency.
Interactive map Gombak - Youngest Only In the 15th general election (GE15), Fahmi voted in the Wira Damai polling district, which had 10 polling streams. The average age of voters in the youngest stream (Stream 10) was 20.1 years old. PN received 57 percent of the votes in this stream, followed by Harapan with 33 percent.
Gombak - Oldest only However, in the oldest stream (Stream 1) with an average age of 62.7, Harapan marginally won with 35 percent of the vote share. BN voters, like Fahmi’s parents, made up 28 percent of the votes here, compared to just nine percent in the youngest stream.
Gombak - Full Result In total, PN emerged as the winner in the Wira Damai polling district with a vote share of 47 percent. What happened in the polling district was also largely reflective of sentiments in Peninsular Malaysia, where voting patterns are split between generations. Wira Damai is in Gombak - a hotly contested parliamentary seat in Selangor. Here, PN gained a significant amount of votes from the youth, while more senior voters supported BN or Harapan. The latter carried then Selangor menteri besar Amirudin Shari into Parliament with a marginal 43.7 percent of total votes.
Peninsula - Full Result In GE15, both Harapan and PN won an equal number of 71 seats out of the total 165 parliamentary seats in Peninsular Malaysia whereas BN secured the remaining 23.
Peninsula - Oldest Only If we exclude the six Peninsular parliamentary seats involved in election petitions, and consider only the votes of elderly voters (typically those above 60) in GE15, BN and Harapan would have captured 64 and 63 seats respectively, and PN's total would have decreased to 32 seats. Peninsula - Youngest Only But if the preference of only younger voters, (typically those below 30) like Fahmi were counted, PN's seat count would have increased to 83, followed by Harapan with 64 seats. BN would have only won 12 seats.
2/3 Back to Main Article: PN's sweep of a large number of parliamentary seats in Peninsular Malaysia - which some dubbed the "Green Wave" - took many political watchers by surprise. In the aftermath, many attributed the support of young voters as one of the significant factor. This is why analysis of GE15 polling data is key, as six states gear up for state elections set for Aug 12.
Our analysis of the results from 7,351 polling districts nationwide revealed that BN and Harapan secured victories in over 70 percent of the polling districts with the oldest voters only.
Conversely, PN emerged as the predominant winner in 46 percent of the polling districts with the youngest voters only, followed by Harapan with 38 percent. Generally, the trend is most pronounced in Malay-majority seats.
The Kini News Lab’s findings on youth voters matched trends found by political analyst Bridget Welsh, who used a different methodology. Her research found that among young people aged 18 to 30, 37 percent expressed support for PN, slightly surpassing Harapan's 35 percent and BN's 23 percent.
Conversely, among individuals aged 61 and above, Harapan received the highest support at 44 percent, followed by BN at 33 percent and PN at 19 percent.
A final year student at an Islamic university only known as Raja, was among those who voted against a BN old guard in Pahang.
The state incumbent, Mohd Sharkar Shamsudin, 61, was first elected in the state seat of Lanchang in 1999, and was seeking to be elected Temerloh MP. This was his second attempt at entering Parliament, but Raja and other younger voters like her, stood in his way.
Although the 24-year-old was never interested in politics, as GE15 neared, she started listening when people around her shared their political views and took note of local developments.
"Those around me didn't have a lot of positive things to say about Harapan but there were those in my larger family network (who didn't live in Temerloh) who were trying to ’brainwash’ me to vote for Harapan.
"But I wanted to make my own decision," said Raja, who had also spent part of her formative years in Terengganu.
To do so, she started doing Google searches on the incumbent and found him uninspiring, and possibly one who could take another victory for granted.
"I live in Temerloh, and I have no idea what new things he has brought in for Temerloh all these years. I didn't want to give him another chance since he was acting like it's a game," she added.
At the same time, her internet searches also told her that Muhyiddin Yassin, the chairperson of PN, was a good leader who took care of his underlings, she said. This was something she could support.
So she voted for Salamiah Mohd Nor, an ustazah from PN, who was the rose among the thorns in the four-cornered fight for Temerloh.
Raja, whose upbringing is fairly conservative and religious, said she believes PAS' presence in PN also helped strengthen the coalition, but this wasn't why she voted for PN.
"I voted for her for women empowerment."
3/4 (oops) Subhead: What makes PN so appealing to younger voters? Political analyst Azmi Hassan from the Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research said PN’s positioning as the relative new kid on the block is an attractive proposition for fresh voters.
"PN represents something new and has become the norm for the younger generation, as they prefer to explore new options offered by PN," he explained.
This trend of young voters being willing to take risks is not unique to Malaysia but has been observed in many other countries, including Singapore during its recent general election, he said.
"This is considered the primary attraction for young voters who are inclined to try something new and are less interested in the historical background of BN, unlike older voters."
Awang Azman Awang Pawi, an analyst from the Universiti of Malaya, also noted how the PN campaign was more aggressive and covered a wide range of issues, while BN was more defensive.
"The PN campaign also aimed to attract a diverse range of voters, while BN primarily focused on appealing to their core supporters."
As young voters were unaffiliated to any party, they were more easily swayed by PN’s campaign messaging, he said.
For example, PN marketed itself as ‘clean’ and ‘new’, even though the leaders have been in the political game for decades, some under different parties.
"When labelled with the slogan 'Bersih' (clean), it captures the attention of young voters.” Subhead: Less advantage to PN in state elections compared to GE15 Going forward, Azmi believes young voters will continue to be an advantage for PN in the state polls, but they will not be as valuable as in GE15.
For example, young voters may now question the ‘clean’ image which PN campaigned on, after a number of Bersatu leaders were charged in the Jana Wibawa corruption cases.
Potentially low turnout, particularly among young voters, could also hurt PN’s chances, he said. In researching sources of information by younger voters during GE15, Iman Research in a recent study singled out PN as the only coalition which jumped onto TikTok, the social media platform which caters mostly to those aged 30 and under, to successfully reach first-time voters.
At her Islamic university, Pahang voter Raja said, most students chose PN when they were asked to anonymously share who they voted for, by pasting stickers on notice boards on campus.
She attributes some of this to PN’s energetic campaign on TikTok, especially its use of influencers in reaching out to otherwise apathetic or uninformed first-time voters. [tiktok of popular young preacher Syahir Norhisham, sharing why he is voting for PAS, has been used as a voiceover in many other TikTok videos of young people declaring their support for PN.]
Argh the paywall right at the young voters calculation part 😅
Tip for MKini paywall: click BM at the top, Malay version is almost always complete.
In this case the Part 1 and 2 articles are very very long.
jap... i go look, lemme share below
ETA: it's interactive article and I can't find even a gift link. Let's see what I can do in a bit....
I briefly check the Kedah data, it appears yes. Young voters favor PN/PAS, older voters are swinging between BN basically UMNO as Kedah is predominantly malays, except maybe Sungai Petani and Kulim, where they were won by PKR. The map shows that only the cities are favoring PH, the rest are green, as bad as you can get.