Institute for the Study of War - Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment 7-16-23 - Insubordination among commanders appears to be spreading....

Key Takeaways:

• The Russian MoD has begun to remove commanders from some of the Russian military’s most combat effective units and formations and appears to be accelerating this effort.
  
  

• Insubordination among commanders appears to be spreading to some of their soldiers.
  
  

• Teplinsky himself set the precedent for the acts of insubordination that are currently plaguing the Russian MoD.
  
  

• The Kremlin’s chronic disregard for the Russian chain of command is likely hindering Shoigu and Gerasimov in their attempts to suppress insubordination and establish full control over the Russian military in Ukraine.
  
  

• The intensifying dynamic of insubordination among Russian commanders in Ukraine may prompt other commanders to oppose the Russian military leadership more overtly.
  
  

• Russian commanders are likely setting information conditions to prevent the Russian MoD from punishing them for their insubordination by promoting narratives among Russian servicemembers along the front and thereby risking widespread demoralization.
  
  

• The Russian veteran and ultranationalist communities appear to be readily defending the commanders’ insubordination by amplifying defeatist discussions that may have direct effects on Russian servicemembers’ morale.
  
  

• The apparent crisis in the Russian chain of command and the corresponding morale effects it may produce will likely degrade Russian capabilities to conduct tactical offensive operations that are critical to the Russian elastic defense in southern Ukraine.
  
  

• The apparent Russian chain of command crisis threatens to demoralize the wider Russian war effort in Ukraine.
  
  

• Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front and reportedly made limited gains.
  
  

• Kiriyenko’s role in this consolidation is notable given his increasing reach in the Russian federal government and prior connections to Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin.
  
  

• Russian forces conducted offensive operations on the Kupyansk-Svatove line and did not make confirmed advances.
  
  

• Russian forces continued ground attacks near Kreminna and made tactical advances.
  
  

• Ukrainian forces continue to target Russian rear areas in occupied Luhansk Oblast.
  
  

• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and reportedly advanced.
  
  

• Russian and Ukrainian sources confirmed that some Chechen forces have deployed to the Bakhmut area.
  
  

• Russian forces continued limited ground attacks on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line and did not advance.
  
  

• Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia border area and made limited gains.
  
  

• Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and did not make confirmed advances in the area.
  
  

• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continue to operate on east (left) bank Kherson Oblast near the Antonivsky Bridge and did not claim any Russian or Ukrainian advances in the area.
  
  

• Russian officials accused Ukrainian forces of attempting an aerial and maritime drone strike against unspecified targets in the Black Sea near Sevastopol, Crimea overnight on July 15 to 16.
  
  

• Russian “Lancet” drone (loitering munition) producer Zalo Aero Group announced the production of a new generation of drones with automatic targeting systems and the intention to expand production abroad.
  
  

• A Ukrainian report indicates that Russian occupation authorities continue persecuting religious minorities in occupied Ukraine as part of a broader cultural genocide aimed at eradicating the Ukrainian national and cultural identity.
  
  

• Wagner Group forces will reportedly integrate into the Russian-Belarusian Union State Regional Grouping of Troops (RGV).